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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Signs of Growth Dissipate, as the Macro Picture Darkens
ARGENTINA · Report · 06 Dec 2016

Herein we analyze the mounting economic pressures the government faces toward yearend, and in the runup to the October 2017 midterm elections. In our October 3rd report, we pointed out that while Q2 activity and external data were negative, higher frequency indicators for August suggested the...

Renan Calheiros Removed
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Dec 2016 · 1 response

The decision to remove Renan Calheiros (PMDB-AL) from the Presidency of the Senate, via injunction, made by STF (Federal Supreme Court) minister Marco Aurélio Melo, will have several consequences: 1) Uncertainty regarding the progress of the fiscal austerity effort in the Senate, espe...

Week of December 5
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Dec 2016

Sunday’s protests will have repercussions in the political world. The government will finally send Congress the proposal for Social Security reform. The Senate has an extensive voting agenda, including the ban on re-election, abuse of authority and state debt. A Senate committee analyzes limits o...

Monetary Policy in the Midst of a Profound Recession
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Dec 2016

The Central Bank’s only mandate is to meet the inflation target. But its decisions are not made in a vacuum. Rather, it takes the decisions prying to minimize a loss function involving two costs: the distance of (projected) inflation from the target; and the distance of GDP in relation to potenti...

Past Performance is No Guarantee of...
TURKEY · Report · 05 Dec 2016

Twelve-month CPI inflation eased in November to 7% from 7.2% in October, contrary to expectations of a slight increase, as monthly rate came in at 0.5% vs. expectations of a 0.8% increase. Producer prices jumped visibly to 6.4%, y/y, from 2.8% a month earlier, likely driven by higher energy price...

Fasten Your Seatbelts!
TURKEY · Report · 04 Dec 2016

Instead of a Weekly Update, we are sending a Monthly in a Q&A format today, which we thought would be a better way of addressing some of the questions that might vex your minds​. AKP and MHP finally agreed on the Executive Presidency. There will be a referendum on the subject by May or June, i...

Banco de Mexico's governor: a badly timed resignation
MEXICO · Report · 02 Dec 2016

Agustin Carstens resigned as governor of Banco de Mexico, effective next July, to become the head of BIS. The timing is unfortunate, since this change comes during a circumstance in which monetary policy has become the main (and in our opinion, the only), policy instrument at hand to preserve ...

MNB is running out of reasons to loosen further
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Dec 2016

Most recent events seem to push circumstances towards a situation in which the MNB may have much less reason to loosen further than previously, if any at all. Of those, the forint's weakening to the current EURHUF 314 from the previous 305-310 range has long been part of our forecast, because of ...

Political environment
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Dec 2016 · 1 response

​By majority vote, the Federal Supreme Court decided to accept the accusation against the president of the Senate, Renan Calheiros (PMDB-AL). This represents a tough defeat for the senator. Despite the fact that the end-of-year parliamentary recess is only three weeks away, there may be pressure ...

Trump Possible Bad News for Canal, and Exports
PANAMA · Report · 30 Nov 2016

The question every analyst asks these days is how the Trump administration might affect Panama. Though the link between the U.S. and Panamanian economies is one of the weakest in the region, a likely surge of protectionism will hit services exports, and Canal traffic. Other potential impac...

Signs of Softening and Uncertainty, While Anti-corruption Efforts Remain Muddled
MEXICO · Report · 30 Nov 2016

Economic indicators last month showed the Mexican economy largely sustained its slackened pace of recent quarters (an average 2.0% rate of growth through the first nine months of the year) as weak supply indicators contrasted with continuing strength in demand, although the latter also manifests ...

President Zuma Hangs to Power- But Only Just!
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 29 Nov 2016

The ANC's National Executive Committee (NEC) decision, after a 3-day meeting held over the past three days, announced earlier today is a short term victory for Zuma! In an unexpected turn of event on Saturday three of his Cabinet Ministers tabled a “vote of no confidence” in him requesting him to...

Trump Plans Could Hit Migration and FDI
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Nov 2016

Uncertainty over the potential impact of President-elect Donald Trump’s economic decisions is high. If Trump makes good on his campaign promises, Central America will be negatively affected on several fronts. The main areas relate to migration, remittances, trade and foreign direct investment. ...

Trump-Inspired Damage is Unlikely
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 29 Nov 2016

Despite uncertainties surrounding the policies of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, we don’t expect the effects on the Dominican economy to be dramatic, over either the short or the medium term. Expansionary fiscal policies aimed at strengthening U.S. infrastructure could boost demand and attrac...

The Country of Not Enough
COLOMBIA · Report · 29 Nov 2016 · 1 response

The end of 2016 will be characterized by not enough growth, a tax reform likely to deliver less than what is needed, monetary policy that has yet to bring inflation down, and a peace deal that may not be enough to bring peace. That is why Colombia, yet making efforts in all these fronts, seems to...

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