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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

President Zuma is running out of options
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 01 Nov 2016

Yesterday was a bad day for President Zuma. I was asked : what is the probability that he would be out of office by December 2017? My response is as follows:The chances have never been so good. President Zuma is at his weakest point, politically speaking. Yesterday, one of the largest public sect...

​Black Swans flocking to Turkey
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Nov 2016

Turkish markets tanked today, as news agencies headlined mobilization of armored forces at the Iraqi border. This is not the only risk bugging the domestic investor. It is as if one can hear the flapping of wings by a flock of Black Swans. Turkey is not for the faint hearted. It is not easy to pr...

A Transformed Export Structure
CHINA · Report · 01 Nov 2016

Growth seems very stable, if low, with GDP up 6.7% y/y in Q3, the same rate as in Q1 and Q2. Industrial output was up 6.1% y/y, likewise flat on Q2, and up 0.2 pps from Q3 2015. Fixed asset investment excluding agriculture rose 7% y/y, down 1.2 pps from Q2.Retail sales of social consumption good...

Indonesia: Promotion Drive for Tourism
INDONESIA · Report · 01 Nov 2016

In the past few months, the Indonesian government has intensified its drive to promote tourism. Increasingly it believes that aside from sectors such as agriculture, mining, manufacturing, tourism is the next promising sector to which it should give priority. There are 10 new tourist destinations...

As World Trade Slows, Canal Offers a New Strategic Approach
PANAMA · Report · 01 Nov 2016

Business headlines over the past two weeks have focused on the pros and cons of the Corozal container terminal on the southeast shore of the Panama Canal, a project promoted by the Panama Canal Authority (ACP). Corozal is already in the pre-contracting phase (four international firms have shown i...

Hungary may issue a eurobond again in 2017
HUNGARY · In Brief · 31 Oct 2016

The CEO of ÁKK, Hungary's debt management agency gave an interview to today's Magyar Hírlap, a local daily newspaper. As a brief summary, Mr. Barcza said largely the following:- He expects the government debt ratio to fall between 73-74% by end-2016. The FX share of total government debt has drop...

Week of October 31
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Oct 2016

A short week in Brasília due to the Wednesday holiday. The rapporteur of the federal spending amendment in the Senate presents his report on Tuesday (11/1). On Thursday, the Federal Supreme Court decides if a defendant can hold an office in the presidential succession line. The deadline for the r...

SA Minister of Finance off the Legal Hook and Politically Stronger
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 31 Oct 2016 · 1 response

The Director of National Prosecuting Agency (NPA), Mr Shaun Abrahams, had to reverse his decision of earlier this month, on October 11th, to charge Minister Pravin Gordhan for fraud and corruption. The case was due to be heard at the courts on November 2nd, 2016. The case caused much speculation ...

Forecasting in times of transition
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 31 Oct 2016 · 2 responses

Venezuela’s economy has had a record bad year in 2016. For all of 2016, we forecast that GDP will fall by 11 percent and private consumption by 10 percent. Emergency government measures have temporarily averted hyperinflation, but inflation will end the year at 457 percent. We project that financ...

Effects of an Obstructed Credit Channel
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Oct 2016

The credit channel is important in transmitting the effects of monetary policy. The literature contains strong evidence that the supply of credit and bank spreads magnify the effects of the interest rate on economic activity. Unfortunately, Brazil is currently passing through an unprecedented sit...

The day lights went out in Turkey
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Oct 2016

I honestly don’t know how important the erosion of democratic standards in a country is for my audience. If it isn’t don’t read this Market Update, or read it to confirm your conviction that Erdogan is gradually but irreversibly consolidating power in Turkey. But if democratic norms do play a rol...

Political Cash Coming Out
UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Oct 2016 · 1 response

Over the last week Ukrainians enjoy a real time show about top politicians and civil servants reporting in e-declarations their assets, incomes and piles of cash. Recall there was a huge fight to introduce e-declarations mechanisms. It was for many times attacked by local establishment and only t...

Week of October 30
TURKEY · Report · 30 Oct 2016

This Weekly Tracker’s politics section prepares the reader for the upcoming Quarterly Report by laying out scenarios for the long list of political processes that might have a bearing on asset pricing. The picture is not pretty. Substantial amount of uncertainty still surrounds the question of Ex...

Seeking Money, While Putting Fiscal Reform on Ice
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 28 Oct 2016

Q1-Q3 GDP growth was once again remarkable: up 6.9%, compared with the same period in 2015, according to preliminary Central Bank estimates. The Dominican Republic continues to lead growth in Latin America and the Caribbean. CPI rose only 0.04%, putting accumulated inflation for the year throu...

Inflation still above 20% in 2017, but better prospects for 2018
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 28 Oct 2016

This quarterly report tries to answer the questions most frequently asked by prospective investors in the Argentine economy: 1. Will Macri’s government deepen the fiscal and pro-market reforms before the mid-term elections to take place in October 2017? 2. If, without deepening the reforms, the...

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