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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Tight cash flow in the months ahead
VENEZUELA · Report · 19 Jul 2017 · 1 response

The government is carefully managing the country's tight forex cash flow, with little options to raise funds in the international market. Cashed-in exports in the first half of 2017 added up to $14 billion, 22 percent higher than in the first half of 2016, but the government's room to maneuver sh...

Rising Tide of Opposition to President Zuma
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 18 Jul 2017 · 1 response

Nowadays South Africa seems to be moving towards a point of "President Zuma vs The Rest!" Of course, President Zuma in effect represents a powerful and well-entrenched segment of the ANC's existing control structures such as the numerical dominance at the Party's National Executive Committee (NEC...

Goldilocks Economy Is At Threat As Inflation Rises
HUNGARY · Forecast · 17 Jul 2017

There is remarkably little change in the outlook we presented in our previous Quarterly three months ago. In essence, Hungary continues to follow a benign macroeconomic path, which seems very well sustainable until the end of the forthcoming election period in late 2019, but will be most certainl...

Week of July 17
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jul 2017

Given that the Congressional recess begins on Tuesday, it should be a quiet week in Brasília.President Temer will discuss changes to Labor Reform with labor unions. In an effort to present a positive agenda, the president is to announce measures for the mining sector. On Thursday, social movement...

Economic Activity, Interest Rates and Consumption
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Jul 2017

Despite divergences between some indicators, the overall signs are that the contraction of economic activity is nearing its end. However, the recovery will likely be very slow. Although the real interest rate for one year (the yield on 360-day swaps deflated by expected inflation one year ahead) ...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 16 Jul 2017

The Justice March and the first anniversary of the attempted coup have been completed without violence. The odds of sudden military strike in Syria also remain low. Political risks remain acceptable in Turkey in the short-term. At the first anniversary of the coup attempt, Turkey is worse-off ...

Government Control
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 15 Jul 2017

Russia’s government control over the Internet is constantly increasing as the authorities try to prevent opposition and foreign actors from using it for the purpose of changing the regime. Due to constant increase of control and government Internet blocking, circumvention tools are also becoming ...

The July 16 Popular Consultation
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 15 Jul 2017

The government confronts tomorrow’s popular consultation with aggressive rhetoric, iron fist censorship of the media, and a “rehearsal” of the July 30 National Constituent Assembly (ANC) elections in parallel to the opposition’s event. Uncertainties surrounding the July 16 consultation make it di...

The Great Infrastructure Debate
PHILIPPINES · Report · 14 Jul 2017

Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping famously said, “It doesn't matter whether a cat is white or black, as long as it catches mice.”It is tempting to apply this to the raging debate about whether infrastructure projects should be pursued through public-private partnerships (PPP) or official development a...

Pension reform approved in first reading
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Jul 2017

Today Ukrainian parliament approved pension reform bill in first reading. Put it different MPs accepted the idea of pension reform in general but details will be under revision. Among points that Minister of social policy Andriy Reva promised to consider for the second round are pension fund audi...

Government on the Defensive Over Corruption
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 13 Jul 2017

Economic activity is slowing, according to official data. Between January and May, growth was up 4.2% from the same period in 2016, and up 5.2% between January and March. Inflation continues to be low. In May, the CPI shrank 0.14%, bringing accumulated ytd inflation to 0.96%, and annualized infla...

Lula Convicted – Step by step
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Jul 2017

Judge Sérgio Moro has convicted former president Lula, sentencing him to 9.5 years of imprisonment. According to Moro, Lula received R$ 3.7 million in bribes from OAS. The former president will be able to appeal the decision. Lula will only be arrested if convicted by the higher court.

Politics: Public Distrust Ahead of 2018 Vote
MEXICO · Report · 12 Jul 2017

As we continue to analyze the results of the latest GEA-ISA quarterly survey on governability and electoral preferences, we see little very little movement in citizen perceptions of the country's situation, the evaluation of President Peña Nieto's administration, or the mood of the country. R...

Economics: Yield Curve Becomes Inverted
MEXICO · Report · 12 Jul 2017

Mexico’s interest rate yield curves in recent weeks have reached levels that are not consistent with the expected evolution of macroeconomic variables. This week’s Economic Outlook analyzes the government securities yield curve. Last week’s National Consumer Price Index report revealed that p...

June was just another month with rising core inflation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Jul 2017

With little exaggeration, reports on new inflation data releases could now be easily copy/pasted from one month to the other, given that the basic trend shows no change, only the specific values are getting somewhat higher on each occasion. Regarding the June data, the headline CPI-inflation rate...

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