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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

What is the Trade Balance Trend?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Jul 2015

We recently presented empirical evidence that the depreciation of the nominal exchange rate does not assure better performance of exports. The reason is not a supposed inflexibility of exports to the stimulus of a weaker currency, but rather the fact that since 2011 the deprecation of the exchang...

The Long, Hot Summer
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jul 2015

Executive Summary Turkey’s plans to invade several border towns in Syria are for real, but delayed because of objections from the military and the U.S. These may be revived in August, or if Kurdish militia or ISIS capture critical territory. More broadly, AKP is signaling a change in its Syria po...

June Inflation: Food To the Rescue
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jul 2015

Consumer price inflation dropped by a sharper than expected 0.5% in June (June 2014: 0.3%), thanks to a 2.8%, m/m, drop in food and beverage prices (June 2014: +0.4%). This reduced the 12-month CPI rate more visibly than anticipated to 7.2%, from 8.1% in May. This is pretty much where all the goo...

The China Loan
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 02 Jul 2015

The 5th Amendment to the Agreement Between The Governments of China and Venezuela on the Joint Sino-Venezuela Financing Fund was signed on 26 June 2015 and published in Official Gazette No. 40.692 dated 30 June 2015. Doubts about China’s willingness to increase the outstanding amount of loans to ...

Government Evaluation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jul 2015

CNI/Ibope: Single-Digit Popularity “Great/good” evaluations of the Dilma Rousseff government came in at only 9%, the worst result for a sitting president since the country’s re-democratization and the systematic monitoring of political image via polling. President Dilma’s performance is very bad,...

AKP’s candidate wins Speaker elections
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Jul 2015

I want to thank all our readers on behalf of myself, Dr Murat Ucer and that rascally Cosmic Strategist for honoring us with so many questions. Only an hour after the election of the AKP candidate and current Defense Minister Mr. Ismet Yilmaz to the post of the Speaker, our mail boxes were well-at...

Part III: Has the recession ended? Equity market valuation
INDIA · Report · 01 Jul 2015

Executive Summary Equity market valuation is all about two things: projected earnings growth and the discount rate required by the market. In the past, Indian equities have obtained high valuations on the strength of the high growth rate of earnings. For a long time, there has been a nice set of ...

Euro zone headwinds 2
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 01 Jul 2015

Five years ago, tremors from Europe’s troubled periphery countries[1], originating in Greece, rocked global financial markets. While this led to some volatility in local financial markets, the impact was temporary and the magnitude of asset price declines relatively small, reflecting the minimal ...

Economics: Latest Data Bodes Ill for 2H15
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jul 2015

Executive Summary For some time, information regarding the relative strength of the Mexican economy has been volatile and in some instances points to apparent contradictions. The same can be said of the indicators released to date for the first four months of 2015. A few weeks ago the National St...

Politics: Officials Dither as Crime Rates Grow
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jul 2015

Executive Summary This past Friday, the authorities released their latest monthly report on the number and rates of major crimes (intentional homicide, kidnapping and extortion). The data corresponded to the month of May and revealed some troubling trends. The number and rate of intentional homic...

Rating sovereign credit
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 01 Jul 2015

Special points to highlight in this issue: The recent turmoil in China’s stock markets have changed the mood among investors who expected, perhaps foolishly, that they would have a chance to get out quickly at the first sign of trouble. It is hard to say what impact this will have on investor psy...

Inflation Accelerates
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Jun 2015

Inflation continues accelerating. We forecast the July monthly CPI inflation rate at 13.0 percent, close to our revised June estimate (13.3 percent). The second minimum wage increase of 10 percent decreed by president Maduro in May 2015 enters into effect in July. We forecast that the shortage in...

Part II: Has the recession ended? Balance sheet problems of banks and borrowers
INDIA · Report · 30 Jun 2015

Executive Summary While the official GDP numbers are showing an optimistic picture, trusted firm databases suggest that the recession which began in Q1 2012 has not ended. In the second part of our discussion of the recent GDP figures and business cycle conditions, we look at the current balance ...

Fragile Stability
UKRAINE · Forecast · 30 Jun 2015

Executive Summary Ukraine’s economic situation has improved significantly. GDP performance is still horrendous (at -17.2% y/y in Q1); however, the main reason for this development is the loss of the Eastern Donbas. Simultaneously, the economic position of the rest of mainland Ukraine has stabiliz...

Electoral Economics
ARGENTINA · Report · 29 Jun 2015

Executive Summary While the fiscal imbalance continues to deteriorate, activity indicators have been showing signs of improvement over the last months. Such relatively “benign” economic change ahead of the elections is no coincidence. Contrary to 2014, the Government has not only relaxed its fisc...

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