Frontal Collision
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Jan 2016

The new National Assembly was peacefully seated on 5 January 2016 but the risk of surprises hasn’t been wiped out. Maduro’s strategy is to fuel conflict and to preclude the new assembly from legislating and from controlling and auditing the government. It rests on the Supreme Tribunal of Justi...

Back to Issues at Home
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 11 Jan 2016

President Putin demonstrated his willingness to protect team members, especially under pressure from opposition. A top level law enforcement official’s family turned out to be involved in multiple illegal activities, and the issue was brought up publicly to the President himself, yet there have b...

Inflation: a Worrying Picture
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Jan 2016

Inflation in 2015 reached 10.67%, more than 4 percentage points above the top of the target interval. The main problem, however, is not the past behavior of inflation, but rather the perspectives for 2016. First, inflation is extremely resistant to falling. Second, the present recession turns to ...

Weekly Tracker: January 10-16
TURKEY · Report · 10 Jan 2016

A bi-partisan commission of 4 parties should soon begin to draft a new Constitution. The exercise is expected to run aground in about six months, however, because AKP insists on an Executive Presidency. The failure of the commission might result in a referendum or early elections. Turkish secu...

Costa Rica: The Central Bank´s Macroeconomic Program
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 08 Jan 2016

On January 5, the Central Bank of Costa Rica announced its Macroeconomic Program for 2016-2017. The Bank reaffirmed its long-term goal of keeping inflation at the average level of the country´s main trading partners. Taking advantage of the recent evolution of inflation, which closed the year in ...

China gives the year a wild beginning
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 08 Jan 2016

Special points to highlight in this issue: The wild gyrations in the Chinese stock market this week don't tell us much about the direction of the Chinese economy, but they do tell us just how much uncertainty there is, both in the outlook for the economy and in the way Beijing will manage it.Thre...

Summer is Hot, But the Economy Stays Cold
CHILE · Report · 07 Jan 2016

The Central Bank’s latest Monetary Policy Report, published in December, contains few changes in monetary policy rate (TPM) outlook from the last report, published in September, though it is slightly more hawkish. The Bank sees the negative pressure of slower growth as more than offset by peso de...

Remittance risks from the Middle East
PHILIPPINES · Report · 07 Jan 2016

As the world trains its eyes on the collapsing diplomatic relations in the Middle East, the Philippines is understandably concerned about the fate of its 2.5 million overseas workers in the region, a large number of whom are based in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Filipinos who are either doi...

All sorts of good news on the 2015 budget, not very surprisingly
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jan 2016

Today's press conference held by economy minister Mihály Varga suggested that largely everything went really well with the implementation of the 2015 budget. Mr. Varga said that the Maastricht definition general government deficit came out around 2% of GDP, a historical low and materially below t...

Inflation Ends 2015 At Almost 9%
TURKEY · Report · 04 Jan 2016

Consumer prices rose by a more than expected 0.2% in December (consensus, no change), taking the 12-month rate sharply higher to 8.8%, from 8.1% in November. CPI-inflation hence ended the year markedly above target (5%) for yet another year (Graph 1), as well as above both the first (5.5%) and th...

Weekly Tracker: January 3-9
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2016

Welcome back to the turbulent and irrational world of Turkish politics. Since our last writing, much that is of import has transpired, which requires detailed analysis. On the other hand, we are aware that you must have at least 19 other markets to catch up on, thus want to prevent information ov...

Brighter Prospects for 2016
INDONESIA · Report · 31 Dec 2015

As the year comes to a close, we take stock of the main trends of 2015, and make predictions for 2016. At the beginning of 2015, the Indonesian landscape was mired in major political uncertainty, with the presidential election leaving the new government in a weak position, and dealing with a c...

Hungary sovereign credit may be upgraded in November 2016
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Dec 2015

The top three rating agencies published their revision dates for Hungary's sovereign credit for 2016. Moody's will make its first revision on March 4, followed by July 8 and then by November 4. S&P will look at Hungary on March 18 and September 16, and Fitch Ratings will do so on May 20 and Novem...

The Challenges Ahead for 2016
PANAMA · Report · 30 Dec 2015

Amidst regional distress, our expectation is that Panama’s GDP will grow 5.6%-5.7% this year. We expect private consumption to continue to offset the fallout from lower private and public investment, as well as the impact of a stronger US Dollar on net exports. The MEF is projecting growth at a s...

A Sad Lack of Growth Prospects
UKRAINE · Forecast · 30 Dec 2015

All indicators suggest that 2016 will see GDP growth of 1.2% y/y . The bad news is that this minor rise is primarily due to a low comparative base, after two years of contraction. Unfortunately, we don’t see solid evidence that growth will continue.External demand, traditionally at the core of th...