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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Uncertainties Persist
CHINA · Report · 27 Jun 2016

Uncertainties about growth are lingering. Fixed asset investment rose 7.5% y/y in May, a 4.2 pp plunge from Q1, and only slightly higher than the September nadir. That was due to a major drop in private investment growth, up only 0.9% y/y, a 4.8 pp fall from Q1. Value added for major industrial ...

A roundabout way to measure corporate distress in Turkey
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Jun 2016

On Friday, a reader asked me and Dr Ucer about corporate distress in Turkey. I consider this topic of great interest to economic stability and market performance after Brexit in particular, because of my fear that UK and EU origined banks might restrict credit to the periphery including Turkey, w...

Week of June 26
TURKEY · Report · 26 Jun 2016

​On the eve of the 9-day Id of Ramadan, Turkish politics has become rather boring, hence the politics section of the Weekly Tracker uses this opportunity to assess the potential impact of Brexit on the Turkish economy, markets and politics. While there are some good case scenarios, we don’t find ...

Reality takes over: first reaction to Britain's exit vote from Hungary's perspective
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Jun 2016

So it finally happened: the UK voted itself out of the EU yesterday. The consequences are pretty much incalculable at this point, but a summary of the key factors from Hungary's perspective may be still useful. Here is list, as a kind of a first reaction:1. Uncertainty. The biggest problem. Nobod...

Speed bumps ahead…for a while
PANAMA · Forecast · 24 Jun 2016

Real GDP expanded 4.58% in Q1, down from the 6.2% growth of Q1 2015, and far below the finance minister’s 5.7% growth projection. Electricity, gas and water supply, construction, mining, and social services were the fastest-growing sectors in Q1, according to these official figures, while agricul...

Hungary's football success is to reinforce PM Orbán's position in domestic politics
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Jun 2016

For Hungary, today's Brexit vote is by far not the most important political event of these days. The one on the top of the list is Hungary's national football team's incredible success at the European Football Championship (Euro 2016) in France, namely that they won Group F of the qualifiers last...

Economics: Doing Business Easier
MEXICO · Report · 23 Jun 2016

The World Bank’s annual “Doing Business” report provides us with a means for comparing the ease with which business can be conducted in Mexico relative to other countries in any given year, and for seeing how such conditions have evolved in Mexico over the years. In its latest Ease of Doing Bu...

Playing Political Games, As the Economy Burns
ECUADOR · Report · 23 Jun 2016

With his popularity and credibility falling to 35%, from 60% last year, and government corruption scandals erupting everywhere, President Rafael Correa is reverting to an old political strategy: targeting new enemies, in a strategy to regain lost support. The first target is Catherine Holli...

Politics: A New Day for Fighting Corruption
MEXICO · Report · 23 Jun 2016

Last week’s passage of laws that will effectively create a National Anti-corruption System is a development of enormous importance. For the first time Mexico has legally typified the sorts of activities that constitute acts of corruption, clearly defined those who are bound by the law and its fil...

MPC: Now Comes the Tricky Part
TURKEY · Report · 21 Jun 2016

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the O/N lending rate by another 50 bps to 9% (simple) today, in line with our and the majority of market players’ expectations. The other two rates – O/N borrowing and weekly-repo – were left unchanged. The cumulative cut of the O/N lending rate since March...

Week of June 20
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jun 2016 · 1 response

In a new round of negotiations, governors and the Executive will try to come to an agreement on state debt. In the Senate, President Renan Calheiros will decide on the impeachment request against prosecutor Rodrigo Janot. The STF will analyze a new accusation against Eduardo Cunha, removed presid...

Shortages, expectations and Dicom push inflation up
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Jun 2016

Available information hints at worsening supplies, a trend that may last at least until July assuming inputs for industry start arriving soon. Despite the decline in the price of the dollar in the parallel market and slowing demand because of falling real income and consumer credit slowdown, infl...

June Monetary Policy Meeting
CHILE · In Brief · 20 Jun 2016

As widely expected, in its June Monetary Policy Meeting, the Central Bank of Chile kept the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) unchanged at 3.5%. The communiqué corroborates that the Central Bank is in a wait-and-see stance. Nevertheless, the tone has become more and more dovish. No doubt that the Brexit...

The Fiscal Adjustment Battle: First Moves
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jun 2016

The government took an excellent first step toward the fiscal adjustment by sending to Congress a proposed constitutional amendment (PEC) establishing a cap on growth of the central government’s primary expenditures. But this is just the start of a long and arduous adjustment that will have to ex...

Falling FX Reserves, Stable HUF
HUNGARY · Report · 20 Jun 2016

The surprising weakness of manufacturing in Q1 was due mainly to a setback of output at Audi Hungária, which seems temporary. Already, substantial positive correction of industrial output was seen in April. Nonetheless, earlier stellar growth rates of the car industry are unlikely to return. The ...

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