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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Reasons for Hope
CHILE · Presentation · 16 May 2017

The long-expected recovery has not yet arrived. The government’s reform agenda has impacted confidence, and the positive investment cycle ended with the decline in the price of copper. However, the economy seems to be coming out a double dip, with agriculture and services the champions. Given tha...

President Poroshenko bans Russian social nets in Ukraine
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 May 2017

On May 15th President Poroshenko signed a decree imposing sanctions on 1700 Russian legal entities. At the sanction list we can see Russian TV channels, banks and… very popular Russian social nets like VKontakte and Odnoklassniki. Also the President banned Russian mail service mail.ru and search ...

Settling In
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 16 May 2017

The Duterte administration will mark its first anniversary in office in less than two months, with the business community reminded once again by parallels in the U.S. to “watch what he does, not what he says.” Indeed, the President remains highly popular and the business sector seems to be warmin...

Early Spring Galvanization
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 15 May 2017

As opposition street protests continue in Russia, although on a smaller scale than last month, the ruling elite started undertaking retaliatory measures to prevent the protests from continuing. Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s main organization, Open Russia Foundation, was declared undesirable, making its ...

Week of May 15
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 May 2017 · 1 response

Mayors organize the March on Brasília and may announce measures to benefit municipalities in response to the government. The Lower House may vote bill on validation of fiscal incentives. Rep. Rodrigo Maia announces the voting calendar for Pension Reform.Leaders of the PMDB decide whether they sup...

Positive Short-Term Performance, Vague Plans for Medium Term
HUNGARY · Report · 15 May 2017

This year’s growth story started differently from everyone’s expectations. A marked recovery of industrial output took place in February and March, apparently driven by the increasingly strong European manufacturing sector. However, retail sales perplexingly slowed down in Q1, despite the massive...

Weak Activity, Falling Inflation and Strong Monetary Easing
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 May 2017 · 1 response

For several months we have been presenting arguments that based on the severity of the recession and the absence of factors to hasten reduction of the negative GDP gap, the correct reaction of the Central Bank is to cut the interest rate more aggressively. The data published in the past two weeks...

The Road to November 2019
TURKEY · Forecast · 14 May 2017

After a narrow and somewhat contentious YES victory at the April 16th constitutional referendum, Turkey has achieved political stability of sorts, but as it is unlikely to translate to more democracy or better relations with the key Western allies, it is a tenuous one at best. Our base-case scena...

Eurovision might light up Ukraine for tourists
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 May 2017

Over the last week Ukraine hosted the Eurovision Song Contest 2017. It was already for the second time in our history that Eurovision took place in Kyiv. But it was never before that visitors were so positive about friendly Ukrainians, well-organized event and high level of services provided for ...

To raise or not to raise interest rates? That's the question
MEXICO · Report · 12 May 2017

Some of our Global Source clients have expressed interest on Banxico’s actions next week, when the monetary policy board meeting takes place. Our thoughts is that Banxico should raise the rate next week 25 basis points (May 18), although there’s a high probability it won’t do it and wait until...

Inflationary pressures don’t subside
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 May 2017

Our monthly inflation rate forecast accelerates to 17.6 percent in May from 15.6 percent in April owing to the rising price of the dollar in the parallel market, the May 1 wage hike, monetary expansion, and worsening supply chain problems. The annual inflation rate falls to 578.6 percent from 592...

Economics: Public Finance in Right Direction During 1Q
MEXICO · Report · 11 May 2017

Last week the Ministry of Finance released preliminary data on public finance for the first quarter of 2017, which at first glance would appear to offer evidence that accounts are moving in the right direction to the extent that they are aligning with the government’s plan for this three-month pe...

Politics: A Weak Link in the Anticrime Strategy
MEXICO · Report · 11 May 2017

Last week the name of Dámaso López Núñez joined the list of scores of major drug lords the government has taken down since an offensive against organized crime was launched in 2007. That success in eliminating the key players in what had become some of the world’s most powerful drug cartels refle...

Growth Picks Up For Now
CHINA · Forecast · 11 May 2017

President Jinping Xi held a top-level meeting on April 25th, where he emphasized the importance of avoiding systemic financial risk. The market interpreted this meeting as a plan to tighten liquidity. The benchmark seven-day repo rate instantly hit a two-year high, of 3.18%. We expect the financi...

Non-fuel inflation keeps rising slowly despite the falling headline rate
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 May 2017

The yoy headline rate of CPI-inflation fell again in April, this time to 2.2% from the 2.7% recorded in March, and from 2.8% in February, which was the highest reading in the series since January 2013. Thus the movement of the headline inflation rate has become quite hectic, due to fuel prices, w...

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