BRAZIL POLITICS
Analysts
Murillo de Aragão
Founder, Political Consultancy Arko Advice
Cristiano Noronha
Partner, Political Consultancy Arko AdviceRecent Country Insights
The STF crisis continues, criticism of the Supreme Court ranked among the highest-engagement content on Brazilian social media, and five presidential polls are expected to be released today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Sep 2026
There were strong reactions from both the government and the opposition on the day after the Supreme Federal Court’s (STF) proceedings involving Alexandre de Moraes. On the government side, President Lula said he was outraged by what is happening. The opposition, meanwhile, was unhappy with Just...
The STF postponed deliberations on whether to investigate Justice Moraes, Lula tries to distance himself from the STF crisis, and the Copom will decide on the new benchmark interest rate today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Sep 2026
As expected, Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) postponed its decision on whether to open an investigation into Justice Alexandre de Moraes. The proceedings were suspended after Justice Flávio Dino requested additional time to review the case. Under the Court’s internal rules, Dino’s request fo...
The STF begins deliberations on whether to investigate Justice Moraes, the latest poll showed a sharp increase in public concern over corruption, and Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are now statistically tied among women
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Sep 2026
Today, starting at 10:00 a.m. local time, Brazil’s Federal Supreme Court (STF) will begin deliberations on whether to authorize an investigation into Justice Alexandre de Moraes’s relationship with former banker Daniel Vorcaro. A Quaest poll released yesterday showed a sharp increase in public co...
A difficult runoff for Lula and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Sep 2026
The Supreme Federal Court (STF) will decide whether to investigate Justice Alexandre de Moraes based on a Federal Police report pointing to an alleged connection between him and former banker Daniel Vorcaro, who is currently in custody. On the economic front, attention will focus on the Central B...
The STF will hold a session next week on whether to investigate Justice Moraes, the Central Bank is expected to reduce the interest rate to 13.75%, and 11 polls will be published this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Sep 2026
The Supreme Federal Court (STF) will begin deliberations tomorrow morning, Tuesday (Sep. 15), on whether to open an investigation into Justice Alexandre de Moraes based on a Federal Police report pointing to an alleged connection between the justice and former banker Daniel Vorcaro, who is curren...
Flávio Bolsonaro is numerically ahead of Lula in the latest polls on the runoff, the STF will hold a session next week on whether to investigate Justice Moraes, and the Central Bank is expected to reduce the interest rate to 13.75% next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Sep 2026
Two polls released yesterday, one by PoderData and another by AtlasIntel, showed Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) numerically ahead of Lula in hypothetical runoff matchups. In the PoderData poll, the result is 47% to 45%. In the AtlasIntel poll, it is 46.4% to 46.2%. The main focus next week will be the Sup...
Justice Fachin called a session for next week to decide on the latest Banco Master development, the government is trying to lower gas prices, and Lula signs into law the measure eliminating the so-called “blouse import tax”
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Sep 2026
Supreme Federal Court (STF) Chief Justice Luiz Edson Fachin has called an extraordinary session for next Tuesday, September 15, for the full Court to decide on a Federal Police report that identifies Justice Alexandre de Moraes as the interlocutor of former banker Daniel Vorcaro, owner of Banco M...
The latest poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro numerically ahead of Lula in a runoff, Chief Justice Fachin gave Justice Mendonça 72 hours to respond to a request from the AGU, and Fachin may take over the Banco Master case
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Sep 2026
Yesterday, a voting-intention poll showed Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) numerically ahead of Lula (PT) in a runoff, with 46% to 45%, according to Nexus/BTG Pactual. The erosion in support is not driven solely by the institutional issues surrounding the crisis at the Supreme Federal Court (STF). The econo...
The presidential race with no clear favorite and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2026
The crisis at the Federal Supreme Court (STF) continues. Statements from the Office of the Prosecutor General (PGR) and Justice André Mendonça to Justice Edson Fachin are expected regarding Mendonça’s conduct in the Banco Master case. Mendonça may also approve a plea bargain related to "Dark Hors...