BRAZIL POLITICS
Analysts
Murillo de Aragão
Founder, Political Consultancy Arko Advice
Cristiano Noronha
Partner, Political Consultancy Arko AdviceRecent Country Insights
Negotiations intensify over income tax reform, the Lower House approves a revised PPP bill, and the INSS fraud scandal escalates as the opposition pushes a CPI and the TCU demands accountability from the current administration
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 May 2025
The bill that grants an income tax exemption for individuals earning up to R$ 5,000 per month is already generating intense negotiations in Congress. In a meeting with lawmakers yesterday, the bill’s rapporteur, Deputy Arthur Lira (PP-AL), heard suggestions for a full correction of the income tax...
The Special Committee on income tax reform was installed, the Lower House approved an increase in the number of representatives and prepares to vote on the new PPP framework, and the Senate to vote on a re-election ban for executive posts
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 May 2025
Yesterday, the Special Committee tasked with analyzing the bill on the income tax was installed. The work plan for discussing the income tax reform (PL 1087/25) foresees that the report will be submitted by June 27. The rapporteur, Deputy Arthur Lira (PP-AL), expects the text to be voted on in th...
The opposition will attempt to file a request for a Joint CPI on the payroll loan fraud, the Lower House installs a committee to review the income tax bill, and the vote on new concessions and the PPP framework is expected
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 May 2025
There are already enough signatures to create a Joint Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry (CPMI) to investigate the fraud involving payroll loans for INSS retirees and pensioners. The opposition will attempt to file the request today, May 6. The installation of the Special Committee to analyze th...
Party realignments target the 2026 elections and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 May 2025
Brasília is expected to see more activity this week, following last week's holidays. In the Lower House, a Special Committee will be installed to analyze the personal income tax bill. In the Senate, discussions begin on the Management Committee (a part of Tax Reform regulation). Former President ...
The opposition pushes a Joint CPI to investigate the pension fund scandal, Congress debates the income tax exemption bill amid political maneuvering in the House, and the Senate begins hearings on the Tax Reform Steering Committee
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 May 2025
The opposition may file a request to establish a Joint Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry (CPMI) to investigate the diversion of more than R$ 6 billion from INSS retirees and pensioners. The scandal led to the resignation of Carlos Lupi from the Ministry of Social Security. The Speaker of the Lo...
The União Progressista merger party has been formed, and Congress should resume at full speed next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Apr 2025
Yesterday, April 29, the União Brasil and Progressista Party (PP) formally launched a party federation, signaling support for the opposition despite both parties' holding ministerial positions in President Lula’s government. The federation will initially be jointly led by PP President Ciro Noguei...
The latest poll shows a slight decline in Lula’s disapproval rating, the União Progressista merger party should be formalized today, and Lula is expected to meet with union leaders today, ahead of the Labor Day holiday on May 1
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Apr 2025
The latest Latam Pulse Brazil/AtlasIntel poll, released yesterday, April 28, shows a slight decline in President Lula’s (PT) disapproval rating. Although disapproval remains higher than approval, the negative rating fell from 53.6% to 50.1%. Today, União Brasil (UB) President Antônio Rueda and Pr...
The PL rethinks the Amnesty Bill and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Apr 2025
The Labor Day holiday on Thursday, May 1, is expected to slow political and judicial activity in Brasília. On Tuesday, April 29, the PP and União Brasil will formalize the creation of their new party federation, União Progressista. The PSDB and Podemos may also announce a merger. On Saturday, May...
This week will be slow due to the Labor Day holiday on May 1, the União Brasil and PP parties will officially form a party federation tomorrow, and PSD and Podemos parties may also formalize a merger
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Apr 2025
Due to the May 1 holiday (Labor Day) on Thursday, this will be a quiet week in both Congress and the Judiciary. Over the past two years, Lula has taken part in Labor Day events in São Paulo, but the rallies drew low turnout. As a result, his participation this year remains uncertain. Tomorrow, th...