BRAZIL POLITICS
Analysts
Murillo de Aragão
Founder, Political Consultancy Arko Advice
Cristiano Noronha
Partner, Political Consultancy Arko AdviceRecent Country Insights
The Federal Police operation involving Banco Master is reverberating across Brasília, the Lower House approved the Anti-Gang Bill, and the Senate approved the bill limiting tax offsets
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Nov 2025
The Federal Police operation involving Banco Master reverberated across Brasília. Political connections of the bank’s controllers are being scrutinized, especially by government allies. Opposition governors Ibaneis Rocha (MDB–DF) and Cláudio Castro (Rio de Janeiro) faced pressure over operations ...
The STF published the decision that denied Bolsonaro’s appeals, the House may vote on the Anti-Gang Bill, and the rapporteur of the Sentencing Bill is finalizing his report so that it can be discussed in the leaders' meeting
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Nov 2025
The Supreme Federal Court (STF) published on Monday night, November 17, the decision that denied the appeals of former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and six other convicts from the crucial core of the coup plot. With the publication of the judgment, the deadline opens for the defenses to file new...
The positioning of "independent" voters and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Nov 2025
The holiday (Black Consciousness Day) on Thursday reduces congressional activity this week. In the Lower House, the highlight is the attempt to vote on the Anti-Gang Bill. In the Senate, the Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) may discuss the bill on the taxation of betting platforms and fintechs. T...
The House is expected to attempt a vote on the Anti-Gang Bill, the Senate Economic Affairs Committee will discuss the bill that taxes fintechs and betting, and the BNDES may announce an infrastructure financing operation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Nov 2025
The Lower House is expected to attempt a vote on Tuesday, November 18, on the Anti-Gang Bill (Bill No. 5,582/25), drafted by the Executive Branch. The rapporteur is Congressman Guilherme Derrite (PP-SP). Also on Tuesday, the Senate’s Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) will discuss the bill introduc...
Haddad gave an interview yesterday about the bus fares project, next week should be busy despite the holiday, and Lula is expected to sign the income tax exemption bill on Wednesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Nov 2025
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad gave an interview to O Estado de S. Paulo. As previously reported, he confirmed that the project to eliminate bus fares will not move forward next year and will only be implemented if it proves fiscally viable. Next week is expected to be busy in Brasília, despite...
Motta postpones vote on Anti-Faction Bill today Nov 18, the Senate approved the reappointment of Paulo Gonet as Prosecutor General, and Alcolumbre announced the Senate’s end-of-year voting schedule
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Nov 2025
After requests from party leaders, House President Hugo Motta (Republicanos–PB) postponed until next Tuesday (Nov 18) the vote on the Anti-Faction Bill (PL 5582/25). He therefore denied the 30-day extension requested by right-wing governors. The Senate floor yesterday approved the reappointment o...
Lula’s approval ratings fell by two percentage points in a new poll, the House may vote on a public security bill, and the Prosecutor General will have his confirmation hearing in the Senate today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Nov 2025
The Paraná Institute released a new poll yesterday, November 11, assessing President Lula’s (PT) administration. After six months, approval ratings fell by two percentage points, reaching 45.9%. The Lower House may vote today on a public security bill. Rapporteur Congressman Guilherme Derrite pre...
Rhetoric and reality in Congress and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Nov 2025
President Lula is expected to sign into law an income tax exemption for individuals earning up to R$ 5,000 per month. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira meets in Canada with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to discuss the tariff sanctions imposed on Brazil. The release of new Quaest poll...
Lula is expected to sign into law the income tax exemption bill, he should also appoint Justice Barroso’s successor, and the STF should hear the criminal complaint against Eduardo Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Nov 2025
President Lula (PT) is expected to sign into law this week the bill on the Individual Income Tax (IR) exemption. The bill was approved last week by the Federal Senate and is one of the president’s main bets to boost his popularity in 2026. President Lula’s (PT) appointment for the existing vacanc...