BRAZIL POLITICS
Analysts
Murillo de Aragão
Founder, Political Consultancy Arko Advice
Cristiano Noronha
Partner, Political Consultancy Arko AdviceRecent Country Insights
The government regains the narrative and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Jul 2025
This is the final week of legislative activity in Congress before the recess begins on July 18. The House may vote on proposals related to court-ordered government payments (precatórios) and environmental licensing. The Supreme Federal Court (STF) will hold a conciliation meeting between the Exec...
This is the last week of congressional activity before the recess, the Lower House has important bills on its agenda, and a Joint Committee on MP 1.303 should be installed tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Jul 2025
This is the final week of activity in the National Congress before the recess begins on Friday (July 18). It will be an informal recess, as the vote on the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO) bill has not been concluded. The Lower House has important bills on the agenda, such as the Constitutional Amendm...
Trump’s 50% tariff continues to fuel tensions in Brazil, the government will evaluate the applicability of the Economic Reciprocity Law, and Deputy Lira presented his report on the income tax bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Jul 2025
Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian exports to the U.S. continues to fuel tensions between the government and the opposition, bringing the 2026 presidential race into early focus. President Lula said Deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP) is in the United States to influence Tru...
Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian products, the Executive and Legislative branches continue to negotiate on the IOF tax hike, and a new poll showed that Tarcísio would easily be re-elected as SP governor in 2026
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jul 2025
U.S. President Donald Trump announced yesterday that he will impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian products starting August 1—a drastic increase that followed harsh criticism of President Lula’s domestic and foreign policies. Trump stated that if Brazil retaliates against the U.S., he will add the ret...
The voting agenda in the Lower House has been set for this week and next, Lira said he may present his report on the income tax bill this week, and Minister Tebet said the court-ordered payments issue must be addressed
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jul 2025
The Lower House has set the voting agenda for this week and next, before Congress recesses. One of the items is Bill 5122/2023, which addresses the renegotiation of rural producers' debts. Regarding the income tax bill, the rapporteur, Lower House President Arthur Lira (PP-AL), said he may presen...
Trump defended Bolsonaro on social media, the Senate may vote on the bill that legalizes gambling, casinos and bingo today, and the Workers’ Party (PT) elected Edinho Silva as its new national president
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Jul 2025
Yesterday, United States President Donald Trump used his social media platforms to defend former President Jair Bolsonaro. His statement will have no impact on the trial of the former president. Bolsonaro is expected to be convicted by the Supreme Federal Court (STF) in the second half of the yea...
Tarcísio gains strength for 2026 and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Jul 2025
Negotiations continue between representatives of the three branches of government on the IOF issue. Deputy Arthur Lira, rapporteur of the bill on Income Tax, will present his report. The Joint Budget Committee may vote on its preliminary report on the Budget Guidelines Bill (PLDO). This week's...
Lira will submit his report on the income tax bill, the Senate may vote on the bill that legalizes gambling, casinos and bingo tomorrow, and the PT may announce its new president today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Jul 2025
Deputy Arthur Lira (PP-AL), rapporteur for the bill that exempts income tax for those earning up to R$5,000 per month, will submit his report to the Special Committee discussing the matter. After Lira presents his report, a request for a review is expected. Voting in the Lower House plenary is sc...
The AGU filed an ADC to defend the constitutionality of the IOF tax hike, the House postponed the vote on the urgent status request for the tax benefits bill, and the Senate approved the MP that expands access to the Social Fund
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Jul 2025
The Office of the Attorney General (AGU) has filed a Declaratory Action of Constitutionality (ADC 96) with the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to defend the constitutionality of President Lula’s decree increasing the Tax on Financial Transactions (IOF). Justice Alexandre de Moraes is serving as the r...