BRAZIL POLITICS
Analysts
Murillo de Aragão
Founder, Political Consultancy Arko Advice
Cristiano Noronha
Partner, Political Consultancy Arko AdviceRecent Country Insights
The USTR confirmed an additional 12.5% tariff on Brazil, Michelle Bolsonaro released a video accepting Flávio Bolsonaro's apology, and the PSD will formally nominate Ronaldo Caiado as its presidential candidate on Sunday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jul 2026
The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) yesterday confirmed the imposition of a new tariff on 60 countries alleged to have benefited commercially from products linked to forced labor. The Brazilian government criticized the U.S. decision. In an official statement, the Presiden...
Lula signed an MP aimed at the Brasil Soberano Program, Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign continues to face negative headlines, and Bolsonaro family members continue to fight among themselves
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jul 2026
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) signed a new provisional measure (MP) on Wednesday (July 22) aimed at the Brasil Soberano Program. The measure is expected to provide R$18.5 billion for the investment and trade support initiative’s third phase. Meanwhile, Flávio Bolsonaro’s (PL) president...
A Real Time Big Data poll shows Caiado narrowly leading Lula in a runoff, Flávio is struggling to secure alliances ahead of the elections, and the new 25% U.S. tariffs on Brazilian products take effect today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jul 2026
A Real Time Big Data poll released yesterday showed PSD candidate Ronaldo Caiado narrowly leading President Lula in a hypothetical presidential runoff, with 44% to Lula’s 43%. Against Flávio Bolsonaro, however, Lula would prevail by 45% to the senator’s 42%. In addition, Flávio is struggling to s...
Jair Bolsonaro’s legal team asked Justice Moraes to reconsider his ban on Flávio Bolsonaro’s visits, Lula builds a political platform in Minas Gerais, and Justice Dino contacted the police regarding congressional earmarks
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Jul 2026
Former President Jair Bolsonaro’s defense team asked Justice Alexandre de Moraes to reconsider his decision barring Senator Flávio Bolsonaro from visiting his father for 90 days. The attorneys argue that the restriction is “disproportionate” and “excessive”. President Lula has finally managed to ...
Why the presidential race remains open and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jul 2026
The party convention period, during which parties define their candidates and alliances, begins today, July 20. On Saturday, July 25, the Liberal Party (PL) will formally nominate Flávio Bolsonaro for president. The following day, July 26, the Social Democratic Party (PSD) will formally nominate ...
The party convention period begins today, the PL will officially nominate Flávio Bolsonaro on Saturday (July 25), and the 25% U.S. tariff will take effect on Wednesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jul 2026
Party conventions begin today, July 20, and will continue through August 5. During this period, political parties will meet to select their candidates and establish coalitions. On Saturday (July 25), the Liberal Party (PL) will officially nominate Flávio Bolsonaro for president at its convention ...
VP Alckmin calls U.S. tariffs unfair and unwarranted, tariffs will be a central topic in the upcoming presidential elections, and the party convention period begins Monday, July 20
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jul 2026
“Unfair and unwarranted”. That is how Vice President Geraldo Alckmin described the U.S. government’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on Brazilian exports. According to the vice president, the administration is preparing a program to support the affected sectors. Alckmin also said the government c...
The U.S. decided to impose the 25% tariff on Brazilian exports, Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential candidacy faces several setbacks, and Justice Dino demanded that all political parties report on their congressional funds
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jul 2026
As expected, the United States confirmed a 25% tariff on Brazilian exports. The measure has quickly become politicized, and President Lula is expected to use it as a campaign issue by placing responsibility on Flávio Bolsonaro. Another setback for Flávio Bolsonaro came from the latest Genial/Quae...
The Senate approved the Freight MP, it also approved a PEC on special retirement rules for community health workers, and the U.S. should decide today whether to impose the 25% tariff on Brazilian exports
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Jul 2026
Yesterday, the Senate approved the provisional measure (MP) changing the rules governing minimum road freight rates, but without the proposed monthly minimum wage of R$5,000 for truck drivers. The text now goes to the president for sanction. The Senate also approved a proposed constitutional amen...