BRAZIL POLITICS
Analysts
Murillo de Aragão
Founder, Political Consultancy Arko Advice
Cristiano Noronha
Partner, Political Consultancy Arko AdviceRecent Country Insights
The latest poll shows the race is statistically tied, Lula was interviewed on Jornal Nacional last night, and today Congress will enact the 6x1 proposal
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Oct 2026
Ten days before the runoff, the Datafolha poll released last night (Oct. 15) shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) with 51% of valid votes, compared with 49% for Lula (PT). With a two-point margin of error, the race is statistically tied. A week ago, the gap was four points: 52% to 48%. In his interview wi...
The Senate approved the 6x1 proposal, the House approved an increase in the annual revenue threshold for MEIs, and both candidates confirmed they will attend the presidential debate on Sunday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Oct 2026
The Senate approved the end of the 6x1 work schedule yesterday. The proposal passed in two rounds of voting, both by the same margin: 75 votes in favor and only one against. Senator Hamilton Mourão cast the sole dissenting vote. The Lower House approved, by 461 votes to 4, an increase in the reve...
Lula continues efforts to reverse Flávio’s advantage in the election, the government moved forward with efforts to approve the 6x1 proposal, and Lula is expected to issue a letter to evangelical Christians
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Oct 2026
The government continues to pull out all the stops in an effort to reverse the advantage Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) held over Lula in the first round. As a reminder, the gap between the two candidates was 1.87 percentage points of the valid vote. The government has also moved forward with efforts to a...
Flávio strengthens his status as favorite and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Oct 2026
Next week, the Senate will conclude the five required sessions of debate on the constitutional amendment proposal that would end the 6x1 work schedule. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has scheduled a vote on the measure for Wednesday, October 14. Lula and Flávio will give interviews to TV Globo....
Alcolumbre scheduled for tomorrow the final debate session on the 6x1 proposal, a series of presidential polls will be released this week, and the FPA is organizing a nationwide caravan of representatives to support Flávio
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Oct 2026
Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) placed the proposed constitutional amendment to end the 6-days-on, 1-day-off workweek (6x1) on Wednesday’s (Oct. 14) agenda, marking the fifth and final day of debate on the proposal. After the rapporteur presents his report on any floor amendments befo...
Polls show Senator Flávio Bolsonaro leading in the runoff, Lula’s campaign is trying to correct some of the mistakes made in the first round, and radio and television campaign advertising for the runoff resumes today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Oct 2026
Two presidential polls released yesterday show Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) leading in the runoff. According to PoderData, the senator has 49% of the vote, compared with 44% for Lula. Datafolha shows a 49% to 45% split. Lula’s campaign is trying to correct some of the mistakes made during the fi...
The debate on the 6x1 proposal continues in the Senate, Lula said his campaign this year was the least organized of his political career, and the TSE will hear an appeal involving the gubernatorial elections in Rio
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Oct 2026
The debate over ending the 6-on, 1-off (6x1) work schedule continues to advance in the Senate. Yesterday, the Senate held the second discussion session on the proposal. Today, it will hold the third. Lula said this year’s campaign has been the “least organized” he has ever participated in over th...
Webinar replay: Brazil elections - Outlook for the runoff
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Oct 2026
What does the path to the presidency look like for Brazil's presidential candidates? Which way is the country leaning? Watch our webinar replay featuring GlobalSource Partners' Brazil Analyst Lucas de Aragao discussing the results of the first round and the outlook for the runoff elections.
The União Progressista party federation announced support for Flávio, the Senate will hold the second session on the 6x1 proposal, and Flávio’s campaign coordinator said the Senate should act to impeach STF justices
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Oct 2026
The PP and União Brasil, which make up the União Progressista federation and remained neutral in the first round, announced yesterday (Oct. 6) their support for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in the runoff of the presidential election, as we had anticipated. The endorsements Flávio Bolsonaro has r...