BRAZIL POLITICS
Analysts
Murillo de Aragão
Founder, Political Consultancy Arko Advice
Cristiano Noronha
Partner, Political Consultancy Arko AdviceRecent Country Insights
Presidential candidate Caiado was interviewed by Jornal Nacional, Senator Aziz said he will present his report on the 6x1 PEC tomorrow, and the Brazilian government will meet with the USTR on Monday (Aug. 31)
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Aug 2026
The interview with PSD presidential candidate and former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado on Jornal Nacional was marked by a lack of concrete policy proposals. On several questions, Caiado chose to sidestep the issues raised. Senator Omar Aziz (PSD-AM) confirmed that he will present his report tomor...
The latest poll shows Lula would tie with Flávio Bolsonaro and Caiado in a runoff, Flávio’s campaign filed a complaint with the TSE against Lula, and Justice Dino authorized further investigations into the film “Dark Horse”
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Aug 2026
Yesterday’s release of a Nexus BTG Pactual poll on the presidential election showed President Lula in a statistical tie with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and former Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) in potential runoff scenarios. In a hypothetical runoff race against Flávio, Lula has 46%, whil...
The economy and corruption threaten Lula's lead and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Aug 2026
The government may submit the proposed 2027 federal budget and a provisional measure on the Selective Tax to Congress. On Friday (Aug. 28), free electoral advertising on radio and television begins. Four presidential polls are expected (Nexus, Gerp, Indexa, and PoderData), along with a series of ...
The first presidential debate was held yesterday, free campaign time on TV and radio will begin on Friday, and several new polls will be released throughout the week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Aug 2026
Yesterday, Band hosted the first debate among the candidates for president of Brazil. Only three candidates participated: Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Renan Santos (Missão), and Augusto Cury (Avante). Lula is expected to avoid debates during the first round. Free electoral advertising on radio and telev...
The PGR asked the STF to send the investigation into Lulinha to a lower court, the first presidential debate is scheduled for Sunday, and free campaign time on TV and radio will begin next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Aug 2026
The Office of the Prosecutor General (PGR) has asked the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to send to a lower court the investigations into the alleged involvement of Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as “Lulinha”, the son of President Lula (PT), as well as allegations involving Dataprev and an attempted...
The reciprocity response to the U.S. tariffs is not expected to be completed by December, the government is expected to submit the PLOA by the end of next week, and the issue involving Lula’s son continues
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Aug 2026
Minister of Development, Industry and Trade Márcio Elias said on Wednesday (Aug. 19) that the economic reciprocity process in response to tariffs imposed by the United States is not expected to be completed by December. Last week, the government announced that it had initiated the reciprocity pro...
Senate President Alcolumbre sent the 6x1 work schedule proposal to the CCJ, Lula’s provisional measure on the “blouse tax” expires on Sep. 8, and Lula continues to criticize online betting
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Aug 2026
According to his staff, Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) has signed the order sending the proposed constitutional amendment (PEC) that would end the 6-on, 1-off (6x1) work schedule to the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ). This means the proposal should reach the CCJ in the comi...
The latest presidential poll shows that the race is statistically tied, the investigation into Lula’s son continues, and Caiado replaced his campaign strategist yesterday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Aug 2026
Yesterday, a new Nexus/BTG Pactual poll on the presidential election was released. It showed President Lula (PT) with 41% of first-round voting intentions. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) has 36%. In a hypothetical runoff, Lula is numerically ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro, 47% to 44%. However, the race...
Campaign kickoff—Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro’s proposals and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Aug 2026
This week's Talking Points: • Lula and Flávio kick off their campaigns. On the first day of the official election campaign, President Lula (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) adopted different strategies. At a political rally held at Vila Euclides Stadium in the ABC region of São Paulo, Lu...