BRAZIL POLITICS
Analysts
Murillo de Aragão
Founder, Political Consultancy Arko Advice
Cristiano Noronha
Partner, Political Consultancy Arko AdviceRecent Country Insights
Polls show Flávio Bolsonaro has a slight advantage ahead of the runoff, activities in Congress will be limited this week, and the government will rely on executive action
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Oct 2026
Six days before the runoff, polls released yesterday (Oct. 19) show Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) ahead, although the race has tightened compared with the immediate aftermath of the first round. Flávio continues to hold a slight edge, but the election remains open. Rejection rates for both candidates are...
The final stretch and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Oct 2026
This is the final week of campaigning ahead of the runoff election on October 25. On Friday, October 23, TV Globo will host a debate featuring Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. A series of voting intention polls are expected to be released throughout the week. The Senate may vote on the constitutional a...
Flávio Bolsonaro performed slightly better than Lula in yesterday’s debate, this is the final week of campaigning before the runoff on Sunday, and the Senate may vote on the Public Security PEC
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Oct 2026
In yesterday’s debate (Oct. 18) on TV Bandeirantes, the first of the runoff, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) performed slightly better than Lula (PT). He successfully steered the confrontation toward public security, corruption, and food prices—issues that are priorities for voters and areas of vulnerabili...
The latest poll shows the race is statistically tied, Lula was interviewed on Jornal Nacional last night, and today Congress will enact the 6x1 proposal
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Oct 2026
Ten days before the runoff, the Datafolha poll released last night (Oct. 15) shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) with 51% of valid votes, compared with 49% for Lula (PT). With a two-point margin of error, the race is statistically tied. A week ago, the gap was four points: 52% to 48%. In his interview wi...
The Senate approved the 6x1 proposal, the House approved an increase in the annual revenue threshold for MEIs, and both candidates confirmed they will attend the presidential debate on Sunday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Oct 2026
The Senate approved the end of the 6x1 work schedule yesterday. The proposal passed in two rounds of voting, both by the same margin: 75 votes in favor and only one against. Senator Hamilton Mourão cast the sole dissenting vote. The Lower House approved, by 461 votes to 4, an increase in the reve...
Lula continues efforts to reverse Flávio’s advantage in the election, the government moved forward with efforts to approve the 6x1 proposal, and Lula is expected to issue a letter to evangelical Christians
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Oct 2026
The government continues to pull out all the stops in an effort to reverse the advantage Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) held over Lula in the first round. As a reminder, the gap between the two candidates was 1.87 percentage points of the valid vote. The government has also moved forward with efforts to a...
Flávio strengthens his status as favorite and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Oct 2026
Next week, the Senate will conclude the five required sessions of debate on the constitutional amendment proposal that would end the 6x1 work schedule. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has scheduled a vote on the measure for Wednesday, October 14. Lula and Flávio will give interviews to TV Globo....
Alcolumbre scheduled for tomorrow the final debate session on the 6x1 proposal, a series of presidential polls will be released this week, and the FPA is organizing a nationwide caravan of representatives to support Flávio
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Oct 2026
Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) placed the proposed constitutional amendment to end the 6-days-on, 1-day-off workweek (6x1) on Wednesday’s (Oct. 14) agenda, marking the fifth and final day of debate on the proposal. After the rapporteur presents his report on any floor amendments befo...
Polls show Senator Flávio Bolsonaro leading in the runoff, Lula’s campaign is trying to correct some of the mistakes made in the first round, and radio and television campaign advertising for the runoff resumes today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Oct 2026
Two presidential polls released yesterday show Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) leading in the runoff. According to PoderData, the senator has 49% of the vote, compared with 44% for Lula. Datafolha shows a 49% to 45% split. Lula’s campaign is trying to correct some of the mistakes made during the fi...