BRAZIL POLITICS
Analysts
Murillo de Aragão
Founder, Political Consultancy Arko Advice
Cristiano Noronha
Partner, Political Consultancy Arko AdviceRecent Country Insights
The STF crisis continues to escalate, and the latest polls show Lula ahead of Flávio in the first round but tied in the runoff, so there is currently no clear favorite in the presidential race
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Sep 2026
The crisis at the Supreme Federal Court (STF) continues to escalate. Yesterday, Justice Alexandre de Moraes requested that Justice André Mendonça be investigated as part of the fake news inquiry for abuse of authority. The full Court will now have to decide whether to investigate Justice Alexandr...
Pressure on the STF continues to build, Alcolumbre will meet with party leaders to discuss impeachment requests against Justice de Moraes, and the government secured important advances in Congress
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Sep 2026
New information about Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) has emerged, further increasing pressure on the Court. Justice André Mendonça, the justice overseeing the Banco Master case before the STF, met with Daniel Vorcaro without the Federal Police present. Today, Senate President Davi Alcolumbr...
New evidence from the Vorcaro case was presented by the Federal Police, the opposition filed impeachment requests against Justice Moraes, and the Joint Committee may vote on the so-called “blouse tax”
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Sep 2026
Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice André Mendonça, who is overseeing the investigations into fraud involving Banco Master, suggested in a decision released on Tuesday (September 1) that new evidence presented by the Federal Police (PF) in the case be reviewed by the full Court. Mendonça lifted t...
The TSE suspended presidential candidate Renan Santos’s campaign, candidate Augusto Cury rose significantly in the polls, and Justice Toffoli was criticized for his decision against Renan Santos
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Sep 2026
Two new developments yesterday shook up the presidential race. The first was the surprising rise of Augusto Cury (Avante) in voting-intention polls. Cury gained 6.2 percentage points in the AtlasIntel poll, reaching 7.8%. In the Nexus/BTG poll, the Avante candidate climbed nine points to 11%. The...
Electoral considerations drive the Lula-Alcolumbre alliance and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Aug 2026
Congress will hold a concentrated legislative session this week. The agenda includes several bills and proposals of interest to the government: the elimination of the “small-package tax,” the end of the 6-on/1-off work schedule, critical minerals policy, Redata, and the Public Security Constituti...
A week of concentrated legislative effort in Congress, President Lula to have dinner with business leaders and bankers tonight, and five polls should be released this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Aug 2026
This will be a week of concentrated legislative effort in Congress, with several bills of interest to the administration on the agenda, including the repeal of the “small-package tax,” the end of the 6-on/1-off work schedule, critical minerals policy, Redata (tax incentives), and the Public Secur...
President Lula was interviewed by Jornal Nacional, free electoral advertising on radio and TV begins today and will run through October 1, and next week will be the last week of concentrated legislative activity before the elections
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Aug 2026
President Lula’s (PT) interview on Jornal Nacional was marked by a more cordial tone from journalists César Tralli and Renata Vasconcellos compared with their interviews of the other candidates (Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos). Nevertheless, Lula struggled during the interview. Free...
Presidential candidate Renan Santos was interviewed by Jornal Nacional, Lula met with Congress leaders to discuss the legislative agenda, and the bill on the import tax on low-value purchases may be put to a vote next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Aug 2026
Missão’s presidential candidate, Renan Santos (Missão), performed well in his interview with Jornal Nacional. Renan showed that he had a clear strategy and did not shy away from questions, even when he had to defend controversial and unpopular measures. Compared with Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado...
Presidential candidate Caiado was interviewed by Jornal Nacional, Senator Aziz said he will present his report on the 6x1 PEC tomorrow, and the Brazilian government will meet with the USTR on Monday (Aug. 31)
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Aug 2026
The interview with PSD presidential candidate and former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado on Jornal Nacional was marked by a lack of concrete policy proposals. On several questions, Caiado chose to sidestep the issues raised. Senator Omar Aziz (PSD-AM) confirmed that he will present his report tomor...