BRAZIL POLITICS
Analysts
Murillo de Aragão
Founder, Political Consultancy Arko Advice
Cristiano Noronha
Partner, Political Consultancy Arko AdviceRecent Country Insights
Daniel Vorcaro may enter into a plea agreement, members of Congress have submitted a request to install a CPI to investigate the Banco Master case, and Lula’s meeting with Trump has been postponed due to the war in Iran
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Mar 2026
In Brasília, the possibility that Daniel Vorcaro may enter into a plea agreement is increasingly being discussed as a real scenario. The decision by Supreme Federal Court (STF) justice and case rapporteur André Mendonça to relax visitation rules for Vorcaro at the federal penitentiary in Brasília...
Haddad will reportedly run for Governor of São Paulo, 35 senators have signed a request to install a CPI to investigate the Banco Master case, and the TSE continues to adjudicate the case against Rio Governor Castro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Mar 2026
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad has reportedly been persuaded to run for governor of São Paulo in October. His departure from the ministry is expected to take place next week. Senator Alessandro Vieira (MDB-SE) yesterday filed a request to establish a Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) to ...
The Banco Master case: questions and answers
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Mar 2026
Are new revelations likely to intensify attention around the Banco Master case and keep it in the spotlight in the media, Congress, and social networks? Will the press continue to give the case prominent coverage? Could supporters, political allies, and operators close to President Lula and Senat...
The Banco Master crisis is likely to escalate and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Mar 2026
The Public Security Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) is expected to begin moving through the Senate. Banker Daniel Vorcaro may testify before the Senate Economic Affairs Committee. The Chief Justice of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Justice Edson Fachin, will meet with court presidents t...
Lula has lost political capital compared to the 2022 elections, Vorcaro is expected to testify before the Senate CAE tomorrow, and the TSE will hear a case against the Governor of Rio for irregularities in his 2022 campaign
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Mar 2026
Comparing Datafolha polling from 2022 and 2026 shows that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party, PT) has lost political capital during this period in both first-round and runoff simulations. Bolsonarismo, in turn, has improved its performance. Daniel Vorcaro, owner of Banco Master, ...
The Banco Master case continues to cause repercussions in Brasília, today marks the start of the party-switching window, and STF President Justice Fachin will discuss judicial compensation next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Mar 2026
Revelations about the conversations between the owner of Banco Master, Daniel Vorcaro, and the authorities continue to emerge and are generating repercussions in Brasília. According to journalist Malu Gaspar, one of the last messages Vorcaro sent on the day he was arrested, November 17 of last ye...
The House approved the Public Security PEC, the CCJ should hold public hearings on reducing working hours and ending the 6x1 work schedule, and the Senate approved the Mercosur-EU trade agreement
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Mar 2026
The plenary of the Lower House concluded the vote on the Public Security Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) submitted by the Executive Branch. The text now moves to the Senate. Yesterday morning, the Lower House Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) approved a request by Congressman Paulo...
Alcolumbre upheld the CPMI’s decision to access Lulinha’s confidential information, the House may vote on the report on the Public Security PEC, and the Senate may vote on the Mercosur–European Union trade agreement
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Mar 2026
The government suffered a defeat in the Senate. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) upheld the decision of the Joint Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPMI) on the INSS to access the confidential information of Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as "Lulinha", President Lula’s son. Today, t...
Lula said he might visit the U.S. this month, Lula should meet today with Alckmin and Haddad to discuss the São Paulo gubernatorial race, and the House approved the bill that allows pharmacies in supermarkets
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Mar 2026
Last week, President Lula announced that he might visit the United States during the week of March 15. Following the attacks on Iran, however, there are doubts about that schedule. The conflict between the United States and Iran has become part of the presidential race. Flavio Bolsonaro said the ...