BRAZIL POLITICS
Analysts
Murillo de Aragão
Founder, Political Consultancy Arko Advice
Cristiano Noronha
Partner, Political Consultancy Arko AdviceRecent Country Insights
The Ministry of Finance is finalizing the framework for the Desenrola program, the House should vote on the 6x1 work schedule next week, and results of four presidential polls may be released today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 May 2026
Finance Minister Dario Durigan said yesterday that the Ministry is finalizing the “framework” for a new version of the Desenrola program aimed at consumers who remain current on their payments but face a risk of indebtedness. The Lower House’s final debate and vote on the proposed constitutional ...
Lula takes the lead in latest poll, the Senate received the report on the PEC that expands the autonomy of the Central Bank, and the debate over the 6x1 work schedule continues
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 May 2026
Another Vox poll on the presidential election was released yesterday. Lula leads both the first- and second-round simulations. In the first round, the president posts 41.5%, while Flavio Bolsonaro has 31.1%. Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) stands at 5.9% and Romeu Zema (Novo) at 4.1%. Yesterday, the Constit...
Flávio Bolsonaro visited Vorcaro when he was arrested, Lula continues to try to improve his approval ratings, and the report on the 6x1 work schedule should be submitted next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 May 2026
Yesterday, new information involving Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and former banker Daniel Vorcaro was made public. According to the news outlet Metrópoles, Flavio visited Vorcaro after the former banker’s arrest late last year. Meanwhile, Lula continues to announce measures aimed at improving his ap...
The first poll since Flávio Bolsonaro’s leaked audio recordings has been published, Lula will launch a program to help finance vehicles, and discussions on the 6x1 work schedule continue
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 May 2026
The first AtlasIntel presidential polling data since the release of audio recordings involving Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and banker Daniel Vorcaro has just been released. Flávio Bolsonaro dropped six percentage points and now holds 41.8% of voter intentions against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva...
Flávio under pressure and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 May 2026
The rapporteur of the bill addressing the end of the 6x1 work schedule, Congressman Leo Prates (Republicanos-BA), is set to present his report before the Lower House Special Committee. In the Senate, Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) may move forward with the rare earths bill and the Pu...
Congressman Prates should present his report on the 6x1 work schedule PECs, the House may vote on the fuel tax break offset bill, and AtlasIntel will release a presidential voting intention poll tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 May 2026
On Wednesday (May 20), Congressman Leo Prates (Republicanos-BA) is expected to present his report on the proposed constitutional amendments (PECs) addressing the end of the 6x1 work schedule. A transition rule is currently under negotiation. The Lower House may vote this week on Complementary Bil...
The government shows signs of increased approval ratings, the leaked audio recordings of Flávio and Vorcaro have caused concern among his allies, and today is the deadline for amendments to 6x1 work schedule PECs
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 May 2026
The week ends on a positive note for the government. For the opposition, the balance is negative. President Lula began the week by announcing an R$11 billion public package for public security, which is the issue voters are most concerned about according to opinion polls. A new Genial/Quaest poll...
Flávio sought financial support from Vorcaro to make a film about his father, Viana filed a request to create a CPMI into Banco Master, and government allies intend to file a complaint against Flávio in the Senate Ethics Council
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 May 2026
The news that Flavio Bolsonaro sought financial support from former banker Daniel Vorcaro to make a film about former President Jair Bolsonaro caught the political world by surprise and represents a major setback for the senator’s campaign at this stage. The issue is expected to impact polling nu...
Lula is focused on measures aimed at improving his approval ratings, the Public Security PEC is expected to move forward next week, and debate over ending the 6x1 work schedule continues according to the timeline
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 May 2026
President Lula remains firmly focused on measures aimed at improving his approval ratings. Yesterday, two new initiatives were announced. The federal government launched the “Brazil Against Organized Crime” program. Lula also signed a provisional measure eliminating the so-called “clothing tax,” ...