BRAZIL POLITICS
Analysts
Murillo de Aragão
Founder, Political Consultancy Arko Advice
Cristiano Noronha
Partner, Political Consultancy Arko AdviceEvents
Recent Country Insights
The latest poll reinforces the highly competitive scenario in a potential runoff, the issue regarding the patron saint of Brazil continues, and STF justices disagree on how to address this issue
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Sep 2026
The Quaest poll on the presidential election released yesterday reinforces the highly competitive scenario in a hypothetical runoff between President Lula (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). Both stand at 42%. Justice Flávio Dino has submitted to the full bench of the Supreme Federal Court (S...
A tight first-round race ahead and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Sep 2026
This is the final week of campaigning before the first round of elections, which will take place next Sunday (October 4). Free election advertising on radio and television ends on Thursday (October 1). TV Globo will host the final debate among the presidential candidates. Flávio Bolsonaro has alr...
False information linked Flávio to an alleged proposal to strip Our Lady of Aparecida of her title as Patroness of Brazil, the first round of the election will be held on Sunday, and Flávio will participate in a debate on Thursday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Sep 2026
The spread of false information linking Senator and presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) to an alleged proposal to strip Our Lady of Aparecida of her title as Patroness of Brazil generated nearly 1 million social media posts in less than three days, becoming the third-largest political...
The press is publishing a number of stories involving Flávio and Lula, President Lula should sign a provisional measure banning online sports betting, and next week is the final week of the election campaign
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Sep 2026
As the campaign enters its final stretch, the press is publishing a number of stories involving Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula. The Federal Police extracted roughly three months of conversations between banker Daniel Vorcaro and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) from Vorcaro’s cellphone. Marc...
The use of litigation in the presidential campaign is increasing but the cases should have little impact on the electorate, and the latest poll continues to show a highly competitive race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Sep 2026
The use of litigation in the presidential campaign is increasing as the race enters its final stretch. The Workers’ Party (PT) has asked Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Flávio Dino to investigate possible U.S. interference in Brazil’s elections aimed at benefiting presidential candidate Flávi...
Lula spoke at the opening of the 81st UN General Assembly, the Shield of the Americas group classified the PCC and CV as terrorist groups, and the TCU will meet to review Petrobras’s fuel pricing policy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Sep 2026
In his speech at the opening of the 81st United Nations General Assembly, President Lula (PT) adopted an ideological narrative that also focused on domestic politics. Lula defended national sovereignty and the principle of non-interference in countries’ internal affairs. The governments of 14 cou...
Three new developments in the STF crisis put the Court at the center of the political debate, the latest poll shows Lula and Flávio tied in the first round, and both candidates have the highest rejection rates
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Sep 2026
Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) has once again moved to the center of the political debate. Images emerged showing Justice Alexandre de Moraes and his wife, Viviane Barci, disembarking from a private jet belonging to a company linked to banker Daniel Vorcaro. Additional information may emerg...
Lula's bets in the final stretch and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Sep 2026
This is the second-to-last week of campaigning ahead of the elections. The Banco Master case remains the leading item on the political agenda. The Superior Council of the Federal Public Prosecutor’s Office (PGR) will discuss a proceeding examining references made by former banker Daniel Vorcaro t...
Lula continues to shift focus away from the STF crisis with government programs, he will speak at the UN General Assembly tomorrow, and the PGR may analyze Paulo Gonet’s relationship with Vorcaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Sep 2026
President Lula, weakened by corruption allegations and also by the crisis surrounding the Supreme Federal Court (STF), is trying to shift the political agenda. Last week, he announced an increase in Bolsa Família benefits. He is currently in the United States, where he has several engagements in ...