BRAZIL POLITICS
Analysts
Murillo de Aragão
Founder, Political Consultancy Arko Advice
Cristiano Noronha
Partner, Political Consultancy Arko AdviceEvents
Recent Country Insights
Upcoming webinar - Brazil elections: Outlook for the runoff
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Oct 2026
Date: 6 Oct 2026 Time: 10:00 AM EDT What does the path to the presidency look like for Brazil's presidential candidates? Which way is the country leaning? Join us for our live Zoom webinar featuring GlobalSource Partners' Brazil Politics Analyst Lucas de Aragao discussing the results of th...
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula head to a runoff on October 25, campaigning begins on Friday and runs through October 23, and five presidential polls are expected to be released this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Oct 2026
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of President Lula in the first round of the presidential election. Flávio received 47.03% of the valid votes, compared with 45.16% for President Lula, a difference of just 1.85 percentage points. Campaigning for the runoff begins on Friday (Oct. 9) and will...
Globo canceled last night’s presidential debate, TSE Justice Estela Aranha barred the network from showing an empty podium for President Lula, and there was negative backlash surrounding the court decisions
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Oct 2026
After two court decisions interfered with Globo’s presidential debate, combined with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s (PL) decision to withdraw from the event, Globo canceled what was expected to be the decisive debate of the election campaign. Superior Electoral Court (TSE) Justice Estela Aranha barre...
Today is the final day of the election campaign, the TSE formed a majority to remove a series of posts regarding Flávio and Our Lady of Aparecida, and today is the deadline for amendments to be submitted to two MPs
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Oct 2026
Today is the final day of the election campaign. The main event will be the presidential debate broadcast by TV Globo beginning at 9:20 p.m local time. Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Augusto Cury (Avante), and Romeu Zema (Novo) have confirmed their participation, but President Lula ...
Justice Fachin postponed the STF’s plenary discussion of the Our Lady of Aparecida case, new information involving Lulinha raises concerns, and the government continues to roll out measures that could impact the elections
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Sep 2026
Supreme Federal Court (STF) President Justice Edson Fachin decided to postpone the Court’s plenary discussion of the fake news controversy involving Our Lady of Aparecida. The issue could have been heard today, but Fachin considered it more prudent to avoid taking up the matter just days before t...
The latest poll reinforces the highly competitive scenario in a potential runoff, the issue regarding the patron saint of Brazil continues, and STF justices disagree on how to address this issue
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Sep 2026
The Quaest poll on the presidential election released yesterday reinforces the highly competitive scenario in a hypothetical runoff between President Lula (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). Both stand at 42%. Justice Flávio Dino has submitted to the full bench of the Supreme Federal Court (S...
A tight first-round race ahead and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Sep 2026
This is the final week of campaigning before the first round of elections, which will take place next Sunday (October 4). Free election advertising on radio and television ends on Thursday (October 1). TV Globo will host the final debate among the presidential candidates. Flávio Bolsonaro has alr...
False information linked Flávio to an alleged proposal to strip Our Lady of Aparecida of her title as Patroness of Brazil, the first round of the election will be held on Sunday, and Flávio will participate in a debate on Thursday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Sep 2026
The spread of false information linking Senator and presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) to an alleged proposal to strip Our Lady of Aparecida of her title as Patroness of Brazil generated nearly 1 million social media posts in less than three days, becoming the third-largest political...
The press is publishing a number of stories involving Flávio and Lula, President Lula should sign a provisional measure banning online sports betting, and next week is the final week of the election campaign
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Sep 2026
As the campaign enters its final stretch, the press is publishing a number of stories involving Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula. The Federal Police extracted roughly three months of conversations between banker Daniel Vorcaro and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) from Vorcaro’s cellphone. Marc...