BRAZIL POLITICS
Analysts
Murillo de Aragão
Founder, Political Consultancy Arko Advice
Cristiano Noronha
Partner, Political Consultancy Arko AdviceRecent Country Insights
Bolsonaro’s defense stated he did not authorize the use of his image in the AI video shown during the PL convention, Flávio Bolsonaro will support Tarcísio’s reelection bid, and the PSB endorsed Lula’s candidacy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Jul 2026
Yesterday, former President Jair Bolsonaro's (PL) legal team filed a petition with the Brazilian Supreme Federal Court (STF) stating that he did not authorize the use of his image or voice in an artificial intelligence-generated video shown during the PL convention that formally nominated Senator...
Minister Durigan extended the Desenrola program until August 31, Justice Moraes gave Bolsonaro 48 hours to clarify the use of his image in his son’s campaign, and the U.S. extended the emergency that allows for tariffs
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jul 2026
Finance Minister Dario Durigan confirmed yesterday that the current edition of Desenrola Brasil, the federal program that allows consumers to renegotiate bank debts, will be extended until August 31, the expiration date of the provisional measure (MP) that created the initiative. Supreme Federal ...
Justice Marques is the rapporteur for the lawsuit against Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign, the Novo party nominated Zema as its presidential candidate, and the CNPS will meet to decide on payroll-deductible loans for INSS retirees
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jul 2026
Justice Nunes Marques, president of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), has been selected as the rapporteur for a lawsuit filed by the Workers' Party (PT) against the presidential campaign of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). During the party convention last Saturday (July 25), the campaign used an artifici...
Challenges remain for Flávio and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jul 2026
The Novo Party is scheduled to hold its national convention today (July 27) to formally confirm Romeu Zema as its presidential nominee. On Saturday (August 1), the Republicanos party will officially endorse Tarcísio de Freitas's bid for reelection as governor of São Paulo. Four presidential polls...
The PL nominated Flávio Bolsonaro as its presidential candidate, the latest poll shows Lula in a tie with right-wing candidates in the second round, and the CNPS may reduce the interest rate ceiling for INSS retirees
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jul 2026
The Liberal Party (PL) held its national convention on Saturday (July 25), officially nominating Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) as its candidate for the presidency. The event featured a strong appeal to female voters—one of Flávio Bolsonaro’s main electoral weaknesses. The Nexus/BTG Pactual presid...
The USTR confirmed an additional 12.5% tariff on Brazil, Michelle Bolsonaro released a video accepting Flávio Bolsonaro's apology, and the PSD will formally nominate Ronaldo Caiado as its presidential candidate on Sunday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jul 2026
The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) yesterday confirmed the imposition of a new tariff on 60 countries alleged to have benefited commercially from products linked to forced labor. The Brazilian government criticized the U.S. decision. In an official statement, the Presiden...
Lula signed an MP aimed at the Brasil Soberano Program, Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign continues to face negative headlines, and Bolsonaro family members continue to fight among themselves
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jul 2026
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) signed a new provisional measure (MP) on Wednesday (July 22) aimed at the Brasil Soberano Program. The measure is expected to provide R$18.5 billion for the investment and trade support initiative’s third phase. Meanwhile, Flávio Bolsonaro’s (PL) president...
A Real Time Big Data poll shows Caiado narrowly leading Lula in a runoff, Flávio is struggling to secure alliances ahead of the elections, and the new 25% U.S. tariffs on Brazilian products take effect today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jul 2026
A Real Time Big Data poll released yesterday showed PSD candidate Ronaldo Caiado narrowly leading President Lula in a hypothetical presidential runoff, with 44% to Lula’s 43%. Against Flávio Bolsonaro, however, Lula would prevail by 45% to the senator’s 42%. In addition, Flávio is struggling to s...
Jair Bolsonaro’s legal team asked Justice Moraes to reconsider his ban on Flávio Bolsonaro’s visits, Lula builds a political platform in Minas Gerais, and Justice Dino contacted the police regarding congressional earmarks
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Jul 2026
Former President Jair Bolsonaro’s defense team asked Justice Alexandre de Moraes to reconsider his decision barring Senator Flávio Bolsonaro from visiting his father for 90 days. The attorneys argue that the restriction is “disproportionate” and “excessive”. President Lula has finally managed to ...