BRAZIL POLITICS
Analysts
Murillo de Aragão
Founder, Political Consultancy Arko Advice
Cristiano Noronha
Partner, Political Consultancy Arko AdviceRecent Country Insights
The TSE suspended presidential candidate Renan Santos’s campaign, candidate Augusto Cury rose significantly in the polls, and Justice Toffoli was criticized for his decision against Renan Santos
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Sep 2026
Two new developments yesterday shook up the presidential race. The first was the surprising rise of Augusto Cury (Avante) in voting-intention polls. Cury gained 6.2 percentage points in the AtlasIntel poll, reaching 7.8%. In the Nexus/BTG poll, the Avante candidate climbed nine points to 11%. The...
Electoral considerations drive the Lula-Alcolumbre alliance and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Aug 2026
Congress will hold a concentrated legislative session this week. The agenda includes several bills and proposals of interest to the government: the elimination of the “small-package tax,” the end of the 6-on/1-off work schedule, critical minerals policy, Redata, and the Public Security Constituti...
A week of concentrated legislative effort in Congress, President Lula to have dinner with business leaders and bankers tonight, and five polls should be released this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Aug 2026
This will be a week of concentrated legislative effort in Congress, with several bills of interest to the administration on the agenda, including the repeal of the “small-package tax,” the end of the 6-on/1-off work schedule, critical minerals policy, Redata (tax incentives), and the Public Secur...
President Lula was interviewed by Jornal Nacional, free electoral advertising on radio and TV begins today and will run through October 1, and next week will be the last week of concentrated legislative activity before the elections
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Aug 2026
President Lula’s (PT) interview on Jornal Nacional was marked by a more cordial tone from journalists César Tralli and Renata Vasconcellos compared with their interviews of the other candidates (Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos). Nevertheless, Lula struggled during the interview. Free...
Presidential candidate Renan Santos was interviewed by Jornal Nacional, Lula met with Congress leaders to discuss the legislative agenda, and the bill on the import tax on low-value purchases may be put to a vote next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Aug 2026
Missão’s presidential candidate, Renan Santos (Missão), performed well in his interview with Jornal Nacional. Renan showed that he had a clear strategy and did not shy away from questions, even when he had to defend controversial and unpopular measures. Compared with Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado...
Presidential candidate Caiado was interviewed by Jornal Nacional, Senator Aziz said he will present his report on the 6x1 PEC tomorrow, and the Brazilian government will meet with the USTR on Monday (Aug. 31)
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Aug 2026
The interview with PSD presidential candidate and former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado on Jornal Nacional was marked by a lack of concrete policy proposals. On several questions, Caiado chose to sidestep the issues raised. Senator Omar Aziz (PSD-AM) confirmed that he will present his report tomor...
The latest poll shows Lula would tie with Flávio Bolsonaro and Caiado in a runoff, Flávio’s campaign filed a complaint with the TSE against Lula, and Justice Dino authorized further investigations into the film “Dark Horse”
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Aug 2026
Yesterday’s release of a Nexus BTG Pactual poll on the presidential election showed President Lula in a statistical tie with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and former Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) in potential runoff scenarios. In a hypothetical runoff race against Flávio, Lula has 46%, whil...
The economy and corruption threaten Lula's lead and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Aug 2026
The government may submit the proposed 2027 federal budget and a provisional measure on the Selective Tax to Congress. On Friday (Aug. 28), free electoral advertising on radio and television begins. Four presidential polls are expected (Nexus, Gerp, Indexa, and PoderData), along with a series of ...
The first presidential debate was held yesterday, free campaign time on TV and radio will begin on Friday, and several new polls will be released throughout the week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Aug 2026
Yesterday, Band hosted the first debate among the candidates for president of Brazil. Only three candidates participated: Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Renan Santos (Missão), and Augusto Cury (Avante). Lula is expected to avoid debates during the first round. Free electoral advertising on radio and telev...