BRAZIL POLITICS
Analysts
Murillo de Aragão
Founder, Political Consultancy Arko Advice
Cristiano Noronha
Partner, Political Consultancy Arko AdviceRecent Country Insights
Challenges remain for Flávio and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jul 2026
The Novo Party is scheduled to hold its national convention today (July 27) to formally confirm Romeu Zema as its presidential nominee. On Saturday (August 1), the Republicanos party will officially endorse Tarcísio de Freitas's bid for reelection as governor of São Paulo. Four presidential polls...
The PL nominated Flávio Bolsonaro as its presidential candidate, the latest poll shows Lula in a tie with right-wing candidates in the second round, and the CNPS may reduce the interest rate ceiling for INSS retirees
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jul 2026
The Liberal Party (PL) held its national convention on Saturday (July 25), officially nominating Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) as its candidate for the presidency. The event featured a strong appeal to female voters—one of Flávio Bolsonaro’s main electoral weaknesses. The Nexus/BTG Pactual presid...
The USTR confirmed an additional 12.5% tariff on Brazil, Michelle Bolsonaro released a video accepting Flávio Bolsonaro's apology, and the PSD will formally nominate Ronaldo Caiado as its presidential candidate on Sunday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jul 2026
The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) yesterday confirmed the imposition of a new tariff on 60 countries alleged to have benefited commercially from products linked to forced labor. The Brazilian government criticized the U.S. decision. In an official statement, the Presiden...
Lula signed an MP aimed at the Brasil Soberano Program, Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign continues to face negative headlines, and Bolsonaro family members continue to fight among themselves
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jul 2026
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) signed a new provisional measure (MP) on Wednesday (July 22) aimed at the Brasil Soberano Program. The measure is expected to provide R$18.5 billion for the investment and trade support initiative’s third phase. Meanwhile, Flávio Bolsonaro’s (PL) president...
A Real Time Big Data poll shows Caiado narrowly leading Lula in a runoff, Flávio is struggling to secure alliances ahead of the elections, and the new 25% U.S. tariffs on Brazilian products take effect today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jul 2026
A Real Time Big Data poll released yesterday showed PSD candidate Ronaldo Caiado narrowly leading President Lula in a hypothetical presidential runoff, with 44% to Lula’s 43%. Against Flávio Bolsonaro, however, Lula would prevail by 45% to the senator’s 42%. In addition, Flávio is struggling to s...
Jair Bolsonaro’s legal team asked Justice Moraes to reconsider his ban on Flávio Bolsonaro’s visits, Lula builds a political platform in Minas Gerais, and Justice Dino contacted the police regarding congressional earmarks
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Jul 2026
Former President Jair Bolsonaro’s defense team asked Justice Alexandre de Moraes to reconsider his decision barring Senator Flávio Bolsonaro from visiting his father for 90 days. The attorneys argue that the restriction is “disproportionate” and “excessive”. President Lula has finally managed to ...
Why the presidential race remains open and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jul 2026
The party convention period, during which parties define their candidates and alliances, begins today, July 20. On Saturday, July 25, the Liberal Party (PL) will formally nominate Flávio Bolsonaro for president. The following day, July 26, the Social Democratic Party (PSD) will formally nominate ...
The party convention period begins today, the PL will officially nominate Flávio Bolsonaro on Saturday (July 25), and the 25% U.S. tariff will take effect on Wednesday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jul 2026
Party conventions begin today, July 20, and will continue through August 5. During this period, political parties will meet to select their candidates and establish coalitions. On Saturday (July 25), the Liberal Party (PL) will officially nominate Flávio Bolsonaro for president at its convention ...
VP Alckmin calls U.S. tariffs unfair and unwarranted, tariffs will be a central topic in the upcoming presidential elections, and the party convention period begins Monday, July 20
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jul 2026
“Unfair and unwarranted”. That is how Vice President Geraldo Alckmin described the U.S. government’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on Brazilian exports. According to the vice president, the administration is preparing a program to support the affected sectors. Alckmin also said the government c...