BRAZIL POLITICS
Analysts
Murillo de Aragão
Founder, Political Consultancy Arko Advice
Cristiano Noronha
Partner, Political Consultancy Arko AdviceRecent Country Insights
The House rejected the measure that taxes betting companies, the STF will analyze the case against the payroll tax relief for 17 economic sectors, and the case regarding the Ferrogrão railway project has been suspended
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Oct 2025
The government suffered a major defeat in Congress as the Lower House rejected Provisional Measure (MP) 1303, which dealt with the taxation of betting companies (“bets”) and tax-exempt bonds. Separately, Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Cristiano Zanin authorized the merits trial of the case c...
Lula and Trump held a meeting yesterday, the Committee on MP 1,303 may vote on the rapporteur’s report, and Haddad confirmed that Lula will sign into law the income tax exemption bill as soon as this month
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Oct 2025
Yesterday, President Lula held a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. An in-person meeting between the two may take place soon. This morning, the Joint Committee discussing Provisional Measure No. 1,303/25—which addresses the taxation of betting platforms and tax-exempt bonds—will attempt to...
The succession race one year out and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Oct 2025
Congress is racing to conclude the vote on Provisional Measure No. 1,303/25, which increases taxation on betting platforms and previously tax-exempt securities. The Income Tax bill is expected to reach the Senate, while the Lower House will receive the bill establishing the Managing Committee for...
The Minister of Tourism has decided to remain in office despite party pressure, the Committee on MP 1,303 may vote on the measure tomorrow, and the bill on the income tax exemption begins analysis in the Senate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Oct 2025
Tourism Minister Celso Sabino has decided to remain in office even after his party, União Brasil, ordered all members holding positions in the federal government to resign. As a result, the party has scheduled a meeting for Wednesday to decide whether to expel the minister. The Joint Committee di...
Lula may see a boost in popularity following the approval of the income tax exemption bill, the rapporteur of the taxation measure is trying to meet rural caucus demands, and the Minister of Tourism may be replaced
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Oct 2025
The week ends on a positive note for the government following the approval of the income tax exemption bill. This is an important achievement for President Lula, who expects a boost in popularity as a result. Congressman Carlos Zarattini (PT-SP), the rapporteur of the measure, confirmed that he w...
The Lower House approved the bill on the income tax exemption, the vote on the measure that taxes gambling was postponed to next week, and a draft bill is circulating that would counteract Trump’s sanctions
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Oct 2025
With 493 votes in favor and none against, the Lower House approved the bill that exempts personal income tax (IRPF) on earnings up to R$ 5,000 (Bill 1,087/25). Despite resistance, the final text includes a tax of up to 10% on high incomes and dividends. Also on the agenda was the Joint Budget Com...
The House will attempt to vote on the bill granting income tax exemptions, Lula met with leaders to discuss the legislative agenda through the end of the year, and the Senate approved the IBS tax Management Committee bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Oct 2025
Today, the Lower House will attempt to vote on the bill granting an income tax exemption for individuals earning up to R$ 5,000 per month. The opposition is trying to eliminate all compensation measures from the text. President Lula met yesterday with Minister of Institutional Relations Gleisi Ho...
Justice Fachin replaced Justice Barroso as President of the STF, party leaders will set the week’s voting agenda in the House, and the Senate should analyze the amendments to the IBS Tax Management Committee bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Sep 2025
Justice Edson Fachin has assumed the presidency of the Supreme Federal Court, replacing Justice Luís Roberto Barroso. Fachin sent important messages, stating: “Our commitment is to the Constitution. To the law, what belongs to the law; to politics, what belongs to politics.” Today, Lower House Pr...
A favorable moment for Lula and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Sep 2025
A busy week in Brasília. High expectations surround the meeting between Lula and Donald Trump. In the Lower House, the Income Tax bill and Provisional Measure (MP) No. 1,303/25, addressing taxation on betting and financial investments, may advance. The opposition continues to push the Amnesty Bil...