BRAZIL POLITICS
Analysts
Murillo de Aragão
Founder, Political Consultancy Arko Advice
Cristiano Noronha
Partner, Political Consultancy Arko AdviceRecent Country Insights
Flávio Bolsonaro’s lead in the runoff has been narrowing, both campaigns signed a waiver at the TSE to disclose their confidential records, and the runoff will be held this Sunday, October 25
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Oct 2026
The three polls released yesterday (October 22) all point in the same direction: Flávio remains numerically ahead in every poll, but his lead has been narrowing, while Lula’s rejection rate has declined. This is an election that will be decided by the details: turnout, undecided voters, and perfo...
The latest polls continue to show Flávio Bolsonaro with a slight advantage, Lula invited Flávio to join him at the TSE today to disclose their confidential records, and Lula is using the presidency in his favor
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Oct 2026
A Quaest poll released yesterday (Oct. 21) shows a statistical tie with four days to go before the runoff. Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) has 45% of voting intentions, compared with 44% for Lula (PT). Two other polls released yesterday also show Flávio ahead. In the Gerp poll, he has 53% of valid votes, c...
Lula calls on Flávio Bolsonaro to disclose his confidential records, the Federal Police requested more time to investigate Lula’s son, and Lula is expected to sign into the law a bill forgiving debts of MEIs
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Oct 2026
President Lula sharpened his rhetoric in the final stretch of the campaign. Yesterday, Lula said that Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) should only be allowed to take part in the TV Globo debate if he presents a document authorizing the disclosure of his confidential records. The Federal Police (PF) asked th...
Polls show Flávio Bolsonaro has a slight advantage ahead of the runoff, activities in Congress will be limited this week, and the government will rely on executive action
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Oct 2026
Six days before the runoff, polls released yesterday (Oct. 19) show Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) ahead, although the race has tightened compared with the immediate aftermath of the first round. Flávio continues to hold a slight edge, but the election remains open. Rejection rates for both candidates are...
The final stretch and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Oct 2026
This is the final week of campaigning ahead of the runoff election on October 25. On Friday, October 23, TV Globo will host a debate featuring Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. A series of voting intention polls are expected to be released throughout the week. The Senate may vote on the constitutional a...
Flávio Bolsonaro performed slightly better than Lula in yesterday’s debate, this is the final week of campaigning before the runoff on Sunday, and the Senate may vote on the Public Security PEC
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Oct 2026
In yesterday’s debate (Oct. 18) on TV Bandeirantes, the first of the runoff, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) performed slightly better than Lula (PT). He successfully steered the confrontation toward public security, corruption, and food prices—issues that are priorities for voters and areas of vulnerabili...
The latest poll shows the race is statistically tied, Lula was interviewed on Jornal Nacional last night, and today Congress will enact the 6x1 proposal
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Oct 2026
Ten days before the runoff, the Datafolha poll released last night (Oct. 15) shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) with 51% of valid votes, compared with 49% for Lula (PT). With a two-point margin of error, the race is statistically tied. A week ago, the gap was four points: 52% to 48%. In his interview wi...
The Senate approved the 6x1 proposal, the House approved an increase in the annual revenue threshold for MEIs, and both candidates confirmed they will attend the presidential debate on Sunday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Oct 2026
The Senate approved the end of the 6x1 work schedule yesterday. The proposal passed in two rounds of voting, both by the same margin: 75 votes in favor and only one against. Senator Hamilton Mourão cast the sole dissenting vote. The Lower House approved, by 461 votes to 4, an increase in the reve...
Lula continues efforts to reverse Flávio’s advantage in the election, the government moved forward with efforts to approve the 6x1 proposal, and Lula is expected to issue a letter to evangelical Christians
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Oct 2026
The government continues to pull out all the stops in an effort to reverse the advantage Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) held over Lula in the first round. As a reminder, the gap between the two candidates was 1.87 percentage points of the valid vote. The government has also moved forward with efforts to a...