BRAZIL POLITICS
Analysts
Murillo de Aragão
Founder, Political Consultancy Arko Advice
Cristiano Noronha
Partner, Political Consultancy Arko AdviceRecent Country Insights
The Planalto Palace has secured more time for Messias’s confirmation hearing, the Senate approved the bill that taxes fintechs, and the House approved the environmental licensing bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Dec 2025
The government’s maneuver worked, and the Planalto Palace secured more time for Jorge Messias’s confirmation hearing for the Supreme Federal Court (STF). Initially, the president of Congress, Davi Alcolumbre (União–AP), had scheduled the hearing for December 10. But because President Lula did not...
The PL party will hold an emergency meeting today to discuss Michelle Bolsonaro’s criticism of Ciro Gomes, the House discusses the Public Security PEC, and the Senate discusses the bill that taxes fintechs
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Dec 2025
A new rift has emerged within the opposition. The Liberal Party (PL) is holding an emergency meeting this afternoon in Brasília to discuss Michelle Bolsonaro’s public criticism of the PL’s alliance with Ciro Gomes (PSDB). Hugo Motta (Republicanos–PB), President of the Lower House, stated that tod...
The government-STF-Senate coalition is at risk and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Dec 2025
The first days of December mark the final stretch of the Legislative Branch’s agenda. Negotiations are intensifying around the Budget Guidelines Law, the 2026 Federal Budget, and revenue-raising measures. The Lower House may vote on a bill targeting persistent tax debtors. Jorge Messias, the appo...
Messias’s appointment to the STF is facing strong resistance in the Senate, the Senate will resume discussions of the bill that taxes fintechs, and the rapporteur of the Anti-Faction bill should submit his report this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Dec 2025
The appointment of the Attorney General, Jorge Messias, to the Supreme Federal Court (STF) is facing strong resistance in the Federal Senate. The President of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (União–AP), had been advocating for Senator Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD–MG) for the vacancy. The Senate’s Economic Af...
Congress overturned Lula’s vetoes of the environmental licensing bill, Congressman Aguinaldo may present his report on the AI bill next week, and the Senate will analyze the bill that taxes fintechs and bets
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Nov 2025
The government suffered new defeats in Congress. Lawmakers overturned President Lula’s vetoes of the environmental licensing bill (PL 2159/21), except for the provisions related to the Special Environmental Licensing (LAE), which are addressed in Provisional Measure 1308/25. Next week marks the b...
Bolsonaro begins serving his 27-year sentence, the latest poll shows Tarcísio and Ratinho Jr. are the most competitive right-wing candidates, and the Senate Plenary approved a bill regulating special retirement rules for health agents
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Nov 2025
Justice Alexandre de Moraes yesterday ordered the start of sentence enforcement for those convicted in the so-called “Core 1” of the attempted coup, including former President Jair Bolsonaro and Generals Braga Netto and Augusto Heleno. A new CNT/MDA poll on the 2026 race was released yesterday. A...
The government faces a turbulent relationship with Congress, Bolsonaro has decided not to file a second round of appeals, and the Senate will hear from Central Bank President Galípolo
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Nov 2025
At a moment when the government is trying to push through a series of key year-end measures, political coordination inside the Planalto Palace is facing turbulence. House President Hugo Motta (Republicanos–PB) publicly broke with the Workers’ Party floor leader, Lindbergh Farias. Former President...
Security is likely to remain a priority in Congress and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Nov 2025
President Lula will sign the bill that grants an income tax exemption for those earning up to R$ 5,000 per month. The Senate’s Economic Affairs Committee may vote on a bill regulating bets and fintechs. The National Congress meets to review presidential vetoes, including those related to environm...
The Supreme Court will review Bolsonaro’s pretrial detention, Lula’s appointee to the Supreme Court begins meetings with senators, and the Senate hears from Galípolo about the Banco Master case
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Nov 2025
The First Panel of the Supreme Court is reviewing Bolsonaro’s pretrial detention. Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered his arrest last Saturday for attempting to tamper with his electronic ankle monitor, even citing a risk of flight. This week, the Attorney General—appointed to fill the Supreme Co...