BRAZIL POLITICS
Analysts
Murillo de Aragão
Founder, Political Consultancy Arko Advice
Cristiano Noronha
Partner, Political Consultancy Arko AdviceRecent Country Insights
The reciprocity response to the U.S. tariffs is not expected to be completed by December, the government is expected to submit the PLOA by the end of next week, and the issue involving Lula’s son continues
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Aug 2026
Minister of Development, Industry and Trade Márcio Elias said on Wednesday (Aug. 19) that the economic reciprocity process in response to tariffs imposed by the United States is not expected to be completed by December. Last week, the government announced that it had initiated the reciprocity pro...
Senate President Alcolumbre sent the 6x1 work schedule proposal to the CCJ, Lula’s provisional measure on the “blouse tax” expires on Sep. 8, and Lula continues to criticize online betting
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Aug 2026
According to his staff, Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) has signed the order sending the proposed constitutional amendment (PEC) that would end the 6-on, 1-off (6x1) work schedule to the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ). This means the proposal should reach the CCJ in the comi...
The latest presidential poll shows that the race is statistically tied, the investigation into Lula’s son continues, and Caiado replaced his campaign strategist yesterday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Aug 2026
Yesterday, a new Nexus/BTG Pactual poll on the presidential election was released. It showed President Lula (PT) with 41% of first-round voting intentions. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) has 36%. In a hypothetical runoff, Lula is numerically ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro, 47% to 44%. However, the race...
Campaign kickoff—Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro’s proposals and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Aug 2026
This week's Talking Points: • Lula and Flávio kick off their campaigns. On the first day of the official election campaign, President Lula (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) adopted different strategies. At a political rally held at Vila Euclides Stadium in the ABC region of São Paulo, Lu...
The official campaign period began this Sunday and will run through October 1, Alcolumbre said he would move forward with the 6x1 work schedule proposal, and two presidential polls will be released this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Aug 2026
The campaign period officially began this Sunday (August 16) and will run through October 1, three days before the first round of the election. Radio and television campaign advertising begins on August 28 and will also run through October 1. Last week, President Lula (PT) met with Senate Preside...
Flávio Bolsonaro had difficulty registering his candidacy, the official campaign period begins on Sunday and runs through October 1, and the government said it notified the U.S. about instating reciprocal tariffs
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Aug 2026
When Senator Flávio Bolsonaro attempted to register his candidacy for the presidency, he was prevented from doing so because the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) system showed that he was affiliated with Missão rather than the PL. Yesterday, the TSE restored Flávio’s PL affiliation. His candidacy h...
Lula signed four decrees on policies for the electricity and fuels sectors, the STF will hold a hearing on whether the FGC will extend a loan to BRB, and the Federal Revenue Service may release new regulations on Tax Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Aug 2026
President Lula (PT) yesterday signed four decrees regulating policies for the electricity and fuel sectors. The measures regulate the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF); Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), aimed at the environmentally responsible storage of CO2; the legal framework for green hy...
Polls show that the election remains polarized between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, the House may vote on the bill that reduces taxes on fuels, and Lula will sign four decrees on policies for the electricity and fuels sectors
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Aug 2026
Between Monday and Tuesday, three opinion polls were released. The Nexus/BTG, Apex/Futura, and CNT/MDA polls converge on one central point: the presidential election remains polarized between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, with both holding a wide lead over the other candidates. Today, the Lower Hous...
Congress begins a week of concentrated legislative activity, Lula may meet with Senate President Alcolumbre to discuss Senate priorities, and House President Motta has announced his support for Lula in the elections
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Aug 2026
Today, the Lower House and the Senate begin a week of concentrated legislative activity. The voting agenda has yet to be finalized. This morning, Institutional Relations Minister José Guimarães and government leaders in Congress will have breakfast with Finance Minister Dario Durigan in an effort...