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Peru in 2026: Political risks, elections, and economics - Slide presentation and webinar replay
PERU · Presentation · 19 Feb 2026

What should we anticipate in the aftermath of Congress electing a new Speaker, who will become the next president? What will be the impact of the upcoming elections on April 12? Is the central bank's FX intervention effective? What are the side effects? What is Peru's economic forecast for 2026?...

Peru: President Jeri to be impeached
PERU · In Brief · 13 Feb 2026

Last night, Congress gathered the necessary support from congress-members to call an extraordinary Congress’ session and discuss President Jeri impeachment. However, Fuerza Popular party and Congress- speaker, Fernando Rospigliosi, from the same party are making it difficult. For once, although 8...

President Jeri risks impeachment; election race heats up; fiscal deficit reached 2.2% of GDP in 2025; PEN/USD appreciation persists
PERU · Report · 10 Feb 2026

We try to answer three key questions in this report: Will Congress impeach President José Jerí? Has the government met its fiscal targets? And is the Banco Central de la República del Perú (BCRP, the central bank) departing from its usual FX intervention policy? In politics, the focus remains...

Peru's President Jerí could face impeachment
PERU · In Brief · 21 Jan 2026 · 1 response

Today at 2pm, Lima time, caretaker president José Jerí will attend Congress' Fiscalization Commission. On Sunday 11th Latina TV aired a video of president Jeri with a hood covering his face and at the middle of the night on December 26th entering a store of a Chinese entrepreneur Zhihua Yang a co...

Election campaign gains momentum; economy decelerated in November 2025; BCRP steps up FX intervention; and MEF to reorganize PetroPerú
PERU · Report · 20 Jan 2026

We cover three topics in this report. First, we analyze developments in the runup to the April 12 general elections. Second, we look at the economy, and argue that a deceleration began in Q4 2025. Finally, we turn to local financial markets, and discuss the increased FX intervention by the Centra...

Election risk in the spotlight; economy to grow by 3.2% in 2025, and 3% in 2026; BCRP likely to extend its policy pause through April
PERU · Report · 23 Dec 2025

In this report, we discuss our most recent forecasts. We first elaborate our political scenarios, and argue that there’s a downside risk in the run-up to first-round national elections in April. We have increased the probability of our low case scenario to 30%, reduced the chance of our base case...

Political risk eases with the appointment of President Jeri; economy surprises on the positive side; the BCRP’s policy dilemma
PERU · Report · 25 Nov 2025

In this report we offer an update on politics, the economy and markets. We first discuss how political risk has remained muted, despite the impeachment of former president Dina Boluarte, and Congress’s naming of José Jerí as interim president, while extending its own term through July 28th. Next,...

November 2025 Peru slide deck: Economic and political situation
PERU · Presentation · 19 Nov 2025

Read Alfredo Thorne's slide presentation on key topics affecting Peru including: - The political scenario under Boluarte’s impeachment and the presidential elections. - Growth outlook: continues to improve. - Road to a failed state—Dina’s legacy? - What is needed to achieve the Modern State...

Congress ousts President Dina Boluarte; José Jerí is appointed as caretaker president; political uncertainty to drive economic slowdown in Q4; we revise our PEN/USD spot rate to project less PEN weakening
PERU · Report · 21 Oct 2025

In this report, we focus on the ouster of President Dina Boluarte; the appointment of José Jerí as caretaker president to serve out her term; the protests in response to these developments; and the likely economic and market consequences. First, we discuss politics: the drivers of congressiona...

Peru's President Jerí's new cabinet
PERU · In Brief · 15 Oct 2025

Last night, the new president, José Jerí, took oath to his new Cabinet, consisting of 18 new ministers. Ahead of the Oath Ceremony at the Presidential Palace, Jerí said that none of the previous ministers would be included and his was a “transition Cabinet and of national reconciliation.” Overall...

Peru’s Congress impeached President Boluarte
PERU · In Brief · 10 Oct 2025

Last night with 121 votes of the 130 legislators (8 did not attended), Peru’s Congress impeached President Boluarte. This followed a sharp increase in insecurity and the feeling that her government had not been attending the population's demands for greater internal security. Official extortion c...

Peru’s Congress to impeach Boluarte
PERU · In Brief · 09 Oct 2025 · 1 response

Tonight the majority of Congress’ members have decided to support a motion to impeach president Boluarte. Our estimate is that there are more than 100 votes supporting the bill, well in excess the 98 needed assuming that all 130 congress members attend the plenary. This may take place tomorrow. A...

Boluarte attempts to boost approval ratings; post-election risk falls, but near-term election risk will impact economy; local market rally weakens
PERU · Report · 23 Sep 2025 · 1 response

We cover three topics in this September forecast report. First, in politics, having adjusted our forecast in August, we now believe with 80% probability that President Dina Boluarte will complete her current term, scheduled to end in July 2026. We examine how Boluarte has attempted to boost her p...

Elections, Congress and the Peru-Colombia territorial conflict; we forecast 2.2% growth in H2 2025; BCRP stands pat in August, but expected to cut 25 bp in September
PERU · Report · 27 Aug 2025

In this report, we cover three topics: political risks in the run-up to the general elections; assessment of the state of the economy following the strong June 2025 GDP performance; and our expectation that the Board of the Banco Central de Reserva del Perú will cut its policy rate by 25 bp at it...

Is this President Boluarte’s last dance? Economy grew sluggishly in Q2; PEN/USD appreciation justifies one 25 bp rate cut in the next nine months
PERU · Report · 15 Jul 2025

In this report we offer an update on Peru’s political, economic and market developments. We first discuss politics and the likelihood of President Dina Boluarte’s facing a successful impeachment before her term ends on July 28th, 2026. Although we continue to ascribe a 45% probability to Boluarte...

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