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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Too many “known unknowns”
TURKEY · Report · 26 Nov 2023

The politics section of the monthly raises many questions, but answers few, because “events are afoot”, which could significantly alter forecasts. A more definite local elections and 2024 policy scenario will only take shape in mid-January. This being said, foreign policy turns out to be a mix...

A good, positive surprise from the MPC
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Nov 2023

The CBRT/MPC raised the policy rate by 500 bps to 40% today, above the consensus forecast, including ours, of 250 bps (see chart). The statement also provides specific forward guidance now, which reads as follows (link here): “The Committee assessed that the current level of monetary tightness is...

Discord infects Erdogan and Bahceli, too
TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Nov 2023

With roughly four months left to Turkey’s fateful municipal elections, the discord so prevalent among main opposition parties now infected governing partners Erdogan and Bahceli, too. Erdogan desperately wants a new Constitution to grant him eligibility for a third term—and beyond. He opened the ...

Winter is coming, but what kind?
TURKEY · Report · 19 Nov 2023 · 1 response

Last week’s main topic was the infighting in the high judiciary, which has blown over in a couple of days, without anyone grasping what it was all about. This week witnessed President Erdogan’s return to “wolf warrior” diplomacy, sniping at Israel relentlessly and managing to offend his hosts in ...

Economy and politics, too hot for comfort
TURKEY · Report · 12 Nov 2023

Turkey is back to the days when each morning brings a new shock, a new crisis. This week’s menu was topped by vicious sniping between two of Turkey’s three highest courts, with ostensibly one of the rivals being provoked by Messrs. Erdogan and Bahceli. By Sunday, Ankara was close to a constitutio...

Our election coverage kicks off
TURKEY · Report · 05 Nov 2023

In a development that may improve CHP’s chances of keeping big-city municipalities in the March 2024 local elections, delegates threw out incumbent Kemal Kilicdaroglu to crown “change” candidate Ozgur Ozel. The politics author thus initiates his local election coverage, tentatively concluding ...

Headline better than expected, thanks to softer food inflation
TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2023

Consumer prices rose by a slower than expected 3.4%, m/m, in October, compared with (including ours) forecasts of around 4%, with our forecast error largely stemming from lower food inflation. Annual CPI-inflation has thus remained broadly unchanged from a month ago, standing at 61.4%, slightly l...

2024 inflation forecast revised up slightly, band widened sharply
TURKEY · Report · 02 Nov 2023 · 1 response

The CBRT has released the final Inflation Report of the year today, which was, as usual, accompanied by a speech and a presentation by Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan. The CBRT aligned the end-2023 forecast with the MTP, raising it to 65% up from 58% in the July report, and revised the end-2024 foreca...

A mid-week macro update
TURKEY · Report · 01 Nov 2023 · 1 response

As we’ve noted in Sunday’s post, the econ author could not contribute his share to the Weekly report as he was in transit on Sunday – and hence, today’s post, which provides a quick rundown of recent macro developments, along with a few quick thoughts and impressions from his meetings while in Lo...

Turkey switches to inflation accounting in 2024, will all Hell break loose?
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Oct 2023

Turkish Ministry of Finance and Treasury issued a circular last week, informing all incorporated and limited liability firms that balance sheets must be adjusted according to inflation accounting rules for YE2023. In 2024, income statements, too, shall be revised in such a manner. The revised 202...

Middle East controls our destiny
TURKEY · Report · 29 Oct 2023

This politics-only Weekly is dedicated to understanding President Erdogan’s motives. By sending the legislation on the ratification of Swedish membership in NATO, he looked like a good team player. He also remained comparatively composed in the early days of the Israel-HAMAS war, only to blow off...

The MPC delivers the consensus again
TURKEY · Report · 26 Oct 2023

The CBRT/MPC raised the policy rate by another 500 bps today to 35%, in line with the consensus forecast. As for the content of the statement, the paragraph on inflation presents a mixed – and a broadly agreeable -- picture on the inflation outlook, with “the “pass-through from tax regulations...

Turkish parliament to ratify Sweden’s NATO accession, but why?
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Oct 2023

I’d given up on positive developments in Turkey’s relations with US and NATO, because on 21 October President Erdogan flatly refused to present the legislation needed to ratify Swedish accession, on account of American disrespect for his various requests, Quran burning incidents and the refusal b...

In the midst of fire
TURKEY · Report · 22 Oct 2023

The politics author reports back to work after an unfortunate sports accident, claiming that although Turkey is in the middle of a circle of fire, not much harm will come out of it. Yet, Turkey’s brief flirtation with the US is over as the Grand Assembly is yet to debate Swedish accession and ...

Keep calm and carry on
TURKEY · Report · 15 Oct 2023 · 2 responses

Industrial production and retail sales were both weak in August, with the latter shrinking sharply, m/m, and the ongoing divergence between the two thus reversing somewhat. Whether this signals the beginning of a sharp downturn remains to be seen, however. The current account balance posted a ...

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