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US pulling out of Syria strengthens Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Dec 2018

Trump announced that the US is withdrawing from Syria. This is largely welcome news in Russia since the Americans sometimes bombed Russia's Syrian allies. On the other hand the US help against ISIS was sometimes useful and Russia now has considerable responsibility, with Iran the other major back...

Putin's annual press conference has only tepid good news
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Dec 2018

President Putin held his annual marathon press conference. There was little good news to report. Wages have increased 0.4% YoY - that was the best statistic to report. The president said ''Russia needs a breakthrough'' but did not suggest how this would happen. President Poroshenko of Ukraine was...

US Treasury prepares to end RUSAL sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Dec 2018 · 1 response

On December 19 the US Treasury indicated that it intends to end sanctions against En+ Group, RUSAL , JSC Rus Sib Energo (ESE) in the next 30 days. These companies have agreed to restructure under conditions that severely curb the main controller shareholder Oleg Deripaska. This should deal with t...

Japanese company seeks to build LNG plant
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Dec 2018

A Japanese company called Itochu has signed an MoU with Gazprom, Shell and Mitsui to build a Baltic LNG plant. This is surprising since Mitsui and Shell previously felt let down by Gazprom. Russia is eager to access Japanese technology. The plant is not expected to be built soon. Itochu and Gazpr...

Russian Central Bank forecasts
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Dec 2018

The Russian Central Bank (CBR) stated that inflation is 3.9% which is just below the target of 4%. The CBR has forecast that inflation will rise to at least 5% in the first half of 2019. The VAT increase and the decline of the RUR will contribute to this. Oil prices are down a little and the CBR ...

Ukrainian ports almost deserted
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Dec 2018

Since Ukrainian warships were seized by Russia in November traffic to and from the ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk has almost stopped. Russia allows merchant ships to sail through the Kerch Strait that connects the ports to the Black Sea. However, inspections in the Kerch Strait often cause delay...

Russian Central Bank hikes key rate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2018

On 14 December the Russian Central Bank (CBR) raised the key rate by 25 basis points. It is not 7.7%. The bank noted the danger of short term inflation and the possibility of US sanctions prompted the move. This moved surprised many. From 15 January 2019 the bank shall recommence foreign currency...

​Russian Ministry of Finance plans to restrict regional debt
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Dec 2018

In Russia, regional governments will not be permitted to spend over 10% of their budgets on servicing debt. The Ministry of Finance will place further restrictions on regions that it regards as overly indebted. Some of the poorer regions have borrowed heavily and have debts over 100% of GDP. Solu...

The capital of the Russian Far East will be shifted
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Dec 2018

On 10 December President Putin announced that the capital of the Far Eastern Region will be shifted from Khabarovsk to Vladivostok. Vladivostok is the southernmost Russian Pacific port. It does a lot of trade with Japan and North Korea. By contrast Khabarovsk does more trade with China.

Russian Ministry of Finance pegs borrowing to inflation
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2018

As of 19 December the Ministry of Finance will issue inflation linked Rubles denominated debt OFZs on a monthly basis. There is a growing demand for bonds linked to inflation. This is because economic uncertainty makes investors want to ensure that the value of their returns are not diminished by...

Armenian election victory for governing party
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2018

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's electoral alliance won over 70% of the vote on 9 December. The My Step Alliance smashed the Republican Party which used to be the government. The Republican Party now has no one left in parliament. Pashinyan came to office earlier this year after a wave o...

Anemic growth for the Russian economy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Dec 2018

The Russian Statistical Commission estimated fourth quarter GDP is up 1.3%. The quarter is not yet over. The third quarter was 1.9%. Public finances are healthy. Overall household spending and disposable income are slightly down on last year. VAT is going up. Deloitte revealed that 61% of people ...

Russia reintroduces state planning
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Dec 2018 · 2 responses

The Russian Ministry of Economic Development has issued a plan to run up to an including 2035. It divides the country into economic zones. Each will be allotted federal funds to help economic development. Different regions will be tasked with different sectors of the economy to develop. However, ...

Russia tries to encourage technology exports
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Dec 2018

The National Technology Initiative (NTI) is a state policy to tap into new markets and achieve Russian technological mastery by 2035. The NTI has been complaining that it does not have the means to achieve this very ambitious goal. The NTI has been given USD 233 million with little to show for it...

Opposition to subsidy reform
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Dec 2018

On 5 December the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepeneurs sent a letter to the Russian Government outlining their worries about proposed changes to the system of subsidies. The change would only give subsidies to profitable companies with growing exports. The idea is to reinforce success...

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