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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Apr 2014

CNT/MDA: New poll reveals declining popularity and intended votes for Dilma Rousseff On Tuesday (29), CNT/MDA released a new poll, conducted on April 20-25, on evaluations of the Dilma administration and the presidential race.The poll on the government demonstrated the same trend recently present...

Better Than Nothing
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Apr 2014

Executive Summary The government and opposition moderates have sat down to negotiate an end to the street protests and violence. The process is fragile and may be abandoned at any moment. The opposition is divided—radicals don’t want to back down and wait till 2018 to unseat Maduro. The governmen...

More Weakness Ahead
MEXICO · Report · 30 Apr 2014

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Economic news in Mexico has been largely disappointing this year, and the indicators published in April were no exception. But not all the news was dire. February produced the second consecutive increase in industrial production; construction activity continues to produce signs ...

April Inflation Report Highlights
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Apr 2014

Here are a few highlights from today’s Inflation Report presentation by Governor Basci: *Yearend inflation estimate is now up by a full percentage point to 7.6% (midpoint of the usual 70% probability band). The revision is a bit on the high side, but the revision itself is not surprising (see our...

With Pro-Ukrainian Sentiment Strengthening, Outlook is Positive
UKRAINE · Report · 29 Apr 2014

Executive Summary Ukrainian authorities haven’t yet been very effective in fighting Russian invaders: rather, they’ve been careful to avoid injuring innocent civilians. And, due to Ukrainian indecisiveness, pro-Russian activists have begun terrorizing local residents. Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, sm...

A Tight Electoral Race Indeed: No Major Changes in Policy Ahead, But Huge Challenges for the Winner
PANAMA · Report · 29 Apr 2014

After months of intoxicating electoral campaigning (with negative ads and character assassination included) on Sunday, May 4 general elections will take place. Seven presidential candidates, 71 legislative hopefuls, 77 district mayors and 648 prospective local authorities will face a voting pool ...

Less Pessimistic than Others
CHINA · Forecast · 29 Apr 2014

Executive Summary People’s Bank of China Governor Xiaochuan Zhou announced in March that deposit interest rates would likely be “liberalized” in a year or two. Four days later, the Bank announced on its website that the daily trading band for the RMB would broaden to 2% from 1%, starting on Ma...

Politcal Insights: Week of April 28
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Apr 2014

Despite the holiday on Thursday (Labor Day), this promises to be a busy week.Petrobras allegations are still on the legislative agenda.A new poll on the presidential race will be released.On Friday and Saturday, the PT discusses the Directives Program for the Dilma Administration. Main topics on ...

Inflation and Economic Activity
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Apr 2014

The government is in an extremely uncomfortable position in an election year: inflation is threatening to exceed 6.5% and projections for growth in 2014 are below that observed in 2013. The most recent Focus survey published by the Central Bank (last week) indicated a median inflation projection ...

Inflation and Economic Activity
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Apr 2014

The government is in an extremely uncomfortable position in an election year: inflation is threatening to exceed 6.5% and projections for growth in 2014 are below that observed in 2013. The most recent Focus survey published by the Central Bank (last week) indicated a median inflation projection ...

Weekly Tracker: April 27-May 3
TURKEY · Report · 27 Apr 2014

Executive Summary Another Gul-Erdogan summit passed, with the leaders failing to announce party’s candidate for the upcoming presidential race. We still bet on PM Erdogan’s candidacy, with certain caveats. Meanwhile, Erdogan stole the show during the week, when he issued a heart-felt apology to t...

MNB Moves towards Smaller Balance Sheet & Less External Funding
HUNGARY · Report · 25 Apr 2014

The Measures On 24 April 2014, the central bank (MNB) announced a series of measures to reshape its monetary policy facilities within a few months’ time. The measures announced were the following: From 1 August 2014, the MNB will change the form of its main sterilization instrument. The existing ...

Triple Economic Whammy
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Apr 2014

The South African economy is struggling under the load of high price increases, raised costs of acquiring credit as well as low spending and a lack of confidence. Compared to twelve months earlier, indicators of inflation for March 2014 reveal that price pressures have escalated (see Graphs 1 and...

Shake, Shake, Shake, Señora…
CHILE · Report · 25 Apr 2014

Executive Summary Natural disasters have fallen upon Chileans in the past month: two consecutive earthquakes and a devastating fire. In spite of the undeniable human drama, the immediate negative economic effects are small, while the reconstruction efforts can become moderately simulative. ...

Financial Reform Seen as Growth Source
CHINA · Report · 24 Apr 2014

Executive Summary Prime Minister Keqiang Li has announced a series of small-scale stimuli to address the economic slowdown, such as cutting the enterprise tax, and stimulating private lending. The new direction is in sharp contrast to the 4 trillion yuan stimulus undertaken at the end of 2008,...

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