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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Business sector activity continues to improve gradually
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Mar 2024

The Business Tendence Survey for February points to further gradual recovery in growth, although at a pace slower than pre-war. The current situation component improved slightly but remains below the pre-war level. The expectations component turned slightly net positive from net-negative. The emp...

Analysts expect slightly rising inflation data for February
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Mar 2024

The February CPI-inflation data is due tomorrow. The January actual was a surprisingly low 3.8% yoy. The median expectation in Portfolio.hu's usual monthly analyst poll is 3.9% yoy (13 respondents, 3.7-4.3% forecast range). Analysts expect (slightly) increasing inflation for the first time since ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Mar 2024

Feb 22 Bureau of National Statistics: Agricultural production in Kazakhstan increased by 0.4% y-o-y in January Bureau of National Statistics: In January, investments in fixed capital in Kazakhstan grew by 0.6% y-o-y Ministry of Industry and Construction: In 2023, coal production in Kazakhstan dec...

Gustavo Adriansén appointed new Prime minister
PERU · In Brief · 06 Mar 2024 · 1 response

Last night, Prime Minister Alberto Otárola resigned. He had been under pressure and turned into a drag on President Dina Boluarte. An edited audio released on a prime TV program Panorama on Sunday night had prompted his resignation. In this audio he is listened offering a job in the government to...

Industrial output fell, retail sales stagnated in January
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Mar 2024

Overall, the first data on how output and demand did early this year, reported this morning, was disappointing. In seasonally and day-adjusted terms, the volume of retail sales did not change from December, despite hopes (though no outright forecasts) that the initial improvement recorded in the ...

South Africa’s economy escaped a technical recession in Q4-2023—but only just
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Mar 2024

Real GDP figures released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) yesterday indicate that South Africa’s economy barely managed to grow in the final quarter of 2023 following a contraction of 0.2% q/q during the third quarter. During the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP recorded a growth rate of 0....

Haddad is expected to submit a bill on Perse and the payroll tax reduction for municipalities, mayors hold a demonstration in Brasilia in defense of payroll tax reductions, and Lula will meet with the governor of Minas Gerais
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Mar 2024

Yesterday, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, said that he will send a bill to Congress on the Emergency Program for the Resumption of the Events Sector (Perse) and the payroll tax exemption for municipalities. The submission should take place next week. Today, the National Confederation o...

Russia publishes German Military communications about Ukraine arms
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Mar 2024

On March 1 Moscow proved it had hacked a call between the head of the German Air Force and an officer. The officers discussed British soldiers who are in Ukraine helping the Ukrainians with targeting but not actually fighting. There was talk of Germany maybe supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine. ...

The forint continues its weak trend: here are two new negative factors
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Mar 2024

EURHUF continued to hover some 3% or even more above this year's starting level today. In addition to everything else known so far, two new factors have just shown up, which may reinforce the current, moderately negative sentiment towards the forint. First, the detailed Q4 2023 GDP data was publi...

Lula will meet with Senate leaders today to improve their relationship, the Ministry of Finance discusses Tax Reform regulation, and there is a new conflict between the Central Bank and the PT
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Mar 2024

Today, President Lula will meet with the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), and party leaders. The objective of the meeting is to improve the relationship between the Executive Office and the National Congress. Yesterday, Minister Fernando Haddad said that the government's idea is...

GDP in 2023 and What Can Be Expected in 2024
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Mar 2024

Last year, Brazil’s GDP expanded by 2.9%, basically the same pace as achieved in 2022 (3.0%), but with peculiar characteristics. Almost one-third of the result was due to the extraordinary performance of agriculture in the first quarter of 2023, which should not repeat this year. The stagnation o...

Russia holds Games of the Future
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Mar 2024

On March 3 the games closed in Kazan, Russia where they had taken place over 11 days. Kazan is the capital of Tatarstan. The games included 21 events: physical ones and digital games. There was a budget of USD 65 million, and it was claimed that 2,000 people from 107 countries took part. However,...

Sharp increase in wages of non-Israeli workers will be inflationary
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Mar 2024

Sharp increase in wages of non-Israeli workers will be inflationary In January, average wages among Israeli workers rose 5.9% y/y, moderating from 9.1% a month ago. In January, there was an increase of 0.6% in the number of employee posts, apparently at low wage levels (which lowered the total av...

Politics: Continuing US leaks about alleged narco money in AMLO’s campaigns heighten tensions and raise more questions
MEXICO · Report · 04 Mar 2024

An article in the February 20 issue of The New York Times, under the byline of the paper’s chief correspondent in Mexico, revealed the existence of an informal investigation by officials from an unspecified US government agency of allegations of donations by drug cartel leaders to AMLO's successf...

Nods to opposing sectors and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Mar 2024

President Lula will meet with party leaders in the Senate. Mayors demonstrate in Brasília in defense of payroll tax relief for municipalities. The BC outlines its regulatory priorities for 2024. This week's Talking Points: * After crises, the União Brasil has new leaders. * ...

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