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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Webinar Replay - Venezuela Political Briefing
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Aug 2024

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on the country's international standing and its economic and political outlook in the aftermath of Venezuela's pivotal 2024 presidential elections What can the international community do? Will there be room for negotiations? How could ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Is the market giving Armenia too much benefit of the doubt?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 16 Aug 2024

Armenia has seen a stronger compression of Eurobond yields since 2022 when compared to CCA peers. This outperformance is especially impressive when assessed against its higher-rated neighbor Georgia. What is driving this? While GDP growth over the last couple of years has been among the best i...

Decent GDP growth in July amid ongoing structural transformation and some unresolved issues
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Aug 2024 · 2 responses

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (measuring activity in six main segments of the economy) grew by 4.1% y-o-y in 7M24 (up from 3.9% y-o-y in 1H24). The services sector continued to evolve smoothly as retail sales expanded by 7.1% and 5.9% in 7M24 and July (y...

Inflation pushes higher
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Aug 2024

Inflation comes in at the high end of expectations The CPI in July was up 0.6% m/m (expectations 0.4%-0.6%), in line with our forecast. Inflation y/y increased to 3.2% from 2.9% last month. Core inflation pushed higher as well to 2.8% y/y from 2.5%, and core inflation excluding government measure...

What is happening with China’s long-dated government bonds?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 Aug 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: * July’s data continues to indicate a sluggish economy, but it is important to add that even as overall growth is slowing, the quality of growth is also deteriorating. As I see it, “high quality” growth in China is the share of growth driven mainly ...

Justice Dino suspended the mandatory fund transfers to deputies and senators, the Senate approved the state debt renegotiation bill, and today is the deadline for registering candidates for the municipal elections
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Aug 2024

Yesterday, Justice Flávio Dino ordered the suspension of mandatory fund transfers to deputies and senators until the National Congress establishes rules that provide greater transparency and traceability for the transfer of resources. This decision sparked reactions in the Lower House. The Senate...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Aug 2024

The FX market demonstrated high volatility last week. Despite the extension of the OFAC license for MOEX, many international institutions cut relationships with the latter before August 13 (the deadline for the initial license). As a result, the spread between the exchange rate for CNY/USD on the...

Slower growth unlikely to imply more rate cuts
HUNGARY · Report · 14 Aug 2024

We thought a few times in the past that relations between PM Orbán and the EU mainstream could hardly be worse than they actually were. But the most recent events suggest we were wrong on all of these occasions. One problem is that Hungary’s six-month rotating presidency within the EU seems to ha...

The opposition is calling for the impeachment of Justice Alexandre de Moraes, the House approved the second Tax Reform regulation bill, and the Senate is expected to analyze three important bills
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Aug 2024

According to a report by Folha de São Paulo, Justice Alexandre de Moraes's office at the Supreme Federal Court (STF) unofficially ordered the elaboration of reports by the Electoral Court to support Moraes’s decisions against Bolsonaro supporters in the fake news investigation at the STF during a...

We see more volatility and more risks
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Aug 2024

We have revised our inflation and exchange rate projections down for this year. We keep our projections for 2025 while we reassess the development of the political crisis that surfaced with the July 28 elections. We think the government will stay its economic policy course, aimed at reducing i...

The current account turns slightly negative in July, GDP growth slows in 1H24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Aug 2024

The Central bank reported that the Current account surplus amounted to $39.7 bln, i.e., slightly lower than in 1H24 as in July alone, it turned slightly negative (-$0.5 bln). It looks as though the fluctuation in oil prices was the main reason for that (apart from a few other factors). At the beg...

Fitch lowers Israel's rating, trade data points to expansion
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Aug 2024

Fitch lowered Israel’s sovereign rating from A+ negative outlook to A with a negative outlook. The main rationale is the elevated geopolitical risks including prolonged warfare into 2025 and possibly an escalation on other fronts. Fitch expects the fiscal deficit to reach 7.8% this year and 4.6% ...

BSP: Listening to the sirens' song this week?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 13 Aug 2024

In our view, the BSP was right in its decision to keep its policy rates steady despite the preponderance of downside risks to inflation at its June 2024 policy meeting. If the BSP had eased monetary policy two months ago, its decision would have been awkward in the face of the 4.4% July inflation...

The environmental career public servants ended their strike, the House approved an urgent status request for the IBS Management Committee bill, and the Senate’s CAE holds a public hearing on Tax Reform regulation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Aug 2024

The environmental career public servants (Ibama, ICMBio, MMA) officially accepted the government's proposal yesterday and ended their strike. As of today (August 13), all employees will return to work. Yesterday, the House approved an urgent status request for the bill that regulates the IBS Mana...

Economics: Pemex’s financial situation continued to deteriorate through the second quarter
MEXICO · Report · 13 Aug 2024

Pemex's latest financial results, the last we can expect from current management, were rolled out with the CEO's customary optimistic flair even as the report shows a profound deterioration of its indicators through the first half of 2024, after recording systematic reductions in the company's de...

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