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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Apr 30 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Apr 28
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 9
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank Mar 25
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank Apr 11
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank Mar 6
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - PANAMA IN FOCUS: US RELATIONS, CANAL STRATEGY AND FI...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Despite the deep contraction in the fourth quarter, the economy is recovering
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Feb 2024
Despite the deep contraction in the fourth quarter, the economy is recovering GDP data for October–December 23 compared with the previous three months is not really relevant to the current economic environment. The fourth quarter was the deep crisis of the disaster on October 7, a sharp decline i...
Azerbaijan reappoints PM
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Feb 2024
On February 16 President Aliyev reaffirmed Ali Asadov's prime ministership. The Majilis (parliament) voted its approval of the nomination. Asadov has held this office since 2019. He is a member of the New Azerbaijan like Aliyev. He is 67 and does not overshadow the president in any way. Aliyev ha...
Post-election scenarios, a first take
TURKEY · Report · 18 Feb 2024 · 1 response
With the clock rapidly ticking down to the historic rendezvous on March 31, AKP candidate Murat Kurum appears to be edging out Imamoglu in the key battleground city of Istanbul. Incumbent Mansur Yavas in Ankara and new candidate Cemil Tugay in Izmir appear safe. The race is likely to witness tren...
Ukraine withdrawing from Avdiivka
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Feb 2024
On February 17 the new head of the Ukrainian Army announced the pullout is because the city is almost enveloped. This is Russia's greatest victory since Bakhmut in May 2023. The difference is that Russia suffered horrendous casualties in Bakhmut but not in Avdiivka. General Syrsky said that the ...
Anti-corruption campaigner Navalny dies in jail
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Feb 2024
On February 16 the news was announced with no official cause of death yet. A pro-Kremlin TV channel suggested it was a blood clot. A doctor who often examined Navalny said this was impossible to determine without an autopsy. He was being held in a remote northern prison. Navalny had been well kn...
GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain and Saudi deficits recorded, Kuwait’s Assembly is dissolved, Egypt plans for Rafah refugees
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Feb 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The new OPEC+ quotas were implemented in Jan (UAE +1% m/m, Saudi flat, Kuwait & Oman -5%). * Egypt is building a compound for refugees as Israel prepares for an assault on Rafah, despite US concerns and mediation efforts; ...
Dancing on the edge of an abyss
UKRAINE · Report · 16 Feb 2024
The last few months have been far from enjoyable. The anxious anticipation of decisions from the West regarding military supplies, coupled with persistent efforts by Russian friends to disrupt the process, paints a bleak picture. The tension between President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Commander-in-...
January saw the second biggest monthly peso depreciation in 17 years
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 16 Feb 2024
The peso depreciated by a powerful 2.36% in January. With the exception of July 2020, this was the highest monthly rate of depreciation since 2007. While there is a seasonal element, since January has frequently shown strong monthly exchange rate depreciation, there may also be factors associated...
Another downside inflation print; a rate cut is on the table
ISRAEL · Report · 16 Feb 2024
1. Inflation in January (0.0% m/m, 2.6% y/y, down from 3.0%) was at the low end of expectations; presently, we give a rate cut at the upcoming meeting a 55% probability. 2. Economic indicators were generally positive last week. 3. The trade deficit declined sharply in January as exports ha...
The Legislature will deal with issues in its relationship with the Executive Office, Flavio Dino takes a seat on the STF, and Bolsonaro calls for a demonstration on February 25
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Feb 2024
Next week, Congress returns to work at full pace and has issues to resolve with the Executive Office. Payroll tax relief, the Perse funding program for the events sector, and budget cuts are among the main sources of dissatisfaction in the relationship between the Legislature and the Executive Of...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Economic cycle to serve the new Georgian government well in the run-up to the Oct elections
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 16 Feb 2024
As the new government led by Irakli Kobahidze starts its term, prospects for the economy look bright, with Georgia gearing up for the October parliamentary elections. The strong economic momentum continues, with 2023 GDP growth upgraded to 7.5 percent from 7.0 percent previously. We forecast 2024...
Economic growth moderates in January
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Feb 2024
The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for an overall economic activity) grew by 4.3% y-o-y, i.e., down from about 5.0% in the previous months. Even though this indicator was affected by a high base effect (faster growth in January 2023), there a...
A rate cut this month cannot be ruled out
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Feb 2024
Another low CPI print in January Inflation in January was stable (0.0% m/m) and slowed to 2.6% y/y from 3.0% in December. This index came in at the low end of expectations (0.0%-0.1%). Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) slowed to 2.4% y/y from 2.7%. Prices of core goods t...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Feb 2024
Investors are waiting for a new sanctions package - to be announced on Feb 24. There are no indications that it will target the financial sector, but this scenario cannot be ruled out. The ruble weakened in anticipation of this event but remains more or less stable. Financial markets, in general,...
The South African economy on shaky ground beyond the post-pandemic recovery
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 15 Feb 2024
• Bonds: The South African bond market continues to be a reflection of the levels of confidence in both the country itself and as a member of the emerging markets group. At the same time, South Africa’s own homegrown economic weaknesses have been responsible for the bulk of the vulnerability in t...