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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Apr 30 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Apr 28
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 9
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - PANAMA IN FOCUS: US RELATIONS, CANAL STRATEGY AND FI...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Federal budget revenue collection looks decent in January 2024 as the economy expands - GDP grew by 3.6% in 2023
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Feb 2024
The Ministry of Finance reported that oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues reached R675 bn in January. It was 58.7% higher than a year ago. The non-O&G revenues accounted for R1.721 trln (up by 84.8% y-o-y). As a result, total revenues grew by 76.6% y-o-y. Even though January 2023 is not a good base for co...
The current account deficit widened in 4Q23 as the tenge got excessively strong
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Feb 2024
The National Bank of Kazakhstan published its first estimate of the 2023 balance of payments, and it became clear that in 4Q23, the current account deficit widened to $3.3 bn from $1.6 bn in 3Q23. In 2Q23, the deficit was even wider ($3.4 bn). However, in 1Q23, it was again moderate ($1.6 bn). Ap...
A solution to the payroll tax exemption issue may be found this week, the president of the Parliamentary Agribusiness Front criticized the government, and Haddad is expected to maintain the zero-deficit target
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Feb 2024
According to the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, and the government leader in the Senate, Randolfe Rodrigues, a solution will be found to the payroll tax exemption issue by the end of the week. But Haddad believes everything will depend on President Lula's approval. The president of the Par...
Government’s setback in Congress, Omnibus law returns to commissions
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 07 Feb 2024
In yesterday's Congress session, the government withdrew the Omnibus law from the debate in the Lower House and sent it back to the respective commissions for further discussions. This represents an important congressional setback, considering that the Omnibus law had already been trimmed, in pri...
EU foreign affairs high representative in Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Feb 2024
On February 6 Josep Borrell paid his 4th visit since the war began. He said he was there to reaffirm the EU's commitment to Ukraine. All these declaration of absolute solidarity seem suspicious. If the EU is so obviously committed why is it impelled to repeat that mantra constantly? In March 2024...
Economic activity continues to recover
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Feb 2024
The CBS Business Survey for January points further recovery in economic activity. The net balance for current activity improved to +12 points from 7.4 points last month and -1.5 two months ago. Expectations for activity next month remained fairly weak at -1.75 (-2.13 last month) but employment ex...
Congress listed its priorities for the year, Lira stressed that the government needs to negotiate with Congress more, and Padilha will meet with Congress's leaders
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Feb 2024
Both Lira and Pacheco spoke about the need to regulate artificial intelligence. The regulation of Tax Reform was also mentioned. While Lira targeted his messages toward the Executive Office, Pacheco focused more on the Judiciary. Lira said that achievements such as the payroll tax exemption and P...
New data for December: poor industrial output, overcompensated by near-excellent retail sales figures
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Feb 2024
This morning, KSH has published mixed data for December. First the bad news: industrial output fell 0.3% mom, 8.9% yoy on seasonally and day-adjusted basis. The raw yoy figure was actually -13.7%, which seems disastrous, but there were two less working days in December 2023 than one year earlier....
Bukele sweeps presidential and congressional elections
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 05 Feb 2024
by Félix Delgado and Fernando Naranjo According to official figures of the Supreme Electoral Court with 70.25% of electoral records processed, Bukele got 1,662,313 million votes, while the second place Manuel Flores from FMLN only 139,000 votes. Bukele announced his victory with more than 85% of ...
Political negotiation in check and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Feb 2024
The National Congress resumes its activities in a climate of tension with the Executive Office. As this is the week before Carnival, there are unlikely to be any important votes. In the economy, the highlights are the release of the Copom minutes and the IPCA for February. This week's Talking ...
Politics: More evidence of how organized crime, politicians, business enterprises and officials interact in Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 05 Feb 2024
In this issue we continue the analysis we began last week in these pages with Part One of our analysis of violence, elections and political control, addressing the interrelated questions of organized crime, its effect on local governments and authorities, and politically motivated violence on the...
What Will the Selic Rate Be at the End of the Easing Cycle?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Feb 2024
By raising aggregate demand, and hence the neutral interest rate, expansionary fiscal policy reduces the power of monetary policy. In 2023, the central government generated a primary deficit of R$ 230 billion, but if that result is harmonized with that determined by the Central Bank, which does n...
Economics: Immediate 2023 public finance results confirm there were no major departures from trends of the previous year
MEXICO · Report · 05 Feb 2024
The gradual but systematic deterioration of public finances continued to unfold over the course of 2023. The results came as no surprise, as the 2023 numbers had been anticipated throughout most of 2023. However, the way some components are trending is troubling: increasingly negative public bala...
Fires and pensions: When it doesn’t rain it pours
CHILE · In Brief · 05 Feb 2024 · 1 response
It is not uncommon for the Chilean summer to be fairly dry. The country’s central valley barely sees a drop of rain between the months of November and March. As the winters have got drier as well, summer wildfires have become more common. In recent days, several fires have appeared around the cou...
The forint is under moderate downward pressure today, fiscal policy, trade data and Sweden's NATO accession may be the factors behind this
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Feb 2024
With EURHUF at 385-386, with an apparent slight mobility in the upwardly direction, one could legitimately say that the forint is under some moderate pressure today. For sure, this is nothing dramatic, yet the explanation may be interesting. Anyway, this state of the local currency appears to jus...