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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank May 13 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 9
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Politics: Hurricane Otis’s devastation has only just begun as AMLO’s typical unipersonal response stymies reconstruction efforts
MEXICO · Report · 06 Nov 2023
When Hurricane Otis delivered a devastating blow to the state of Guerrero, the second poorest in the country, no one from any level of government or emergency services was anywhere to be found even as civil society sought to fill the void, backed by the solidarity of philanthropic foundations and...
Kazakhstan macro: A vicious circle not yet broken
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 06 Nov 2023
The excessively strong tenge was one of the main reasons for the widening republican budget deficit in 9M23. Another reason for the wider deficit was the amended expenditures—along with the assumption that the revenue would grow as much as the additional spending. As the latter has not yet happen...
Public policy anchors inflation and growth
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Nov 2023
What macro data are to be released? The Philippine Statistics Authority is scheduled to release the actual October 2023 inflation, both headline and core, tomorrow November 7. As we write this In Brief in Rome, we are guided by the BSP’s own press statement last October 26 after its off-cycle mee...
The fiscal conflict and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Nov 2023
In the Senate, the highlight is the vote on Tax Reform. Discussions continue around the fiscal target for 2024. On Tuesday, the Joint Budget Committee votes on the preliminary report on the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO). Appointments to the Central Bank (BC) may be sent to the Senate. The STF may a...
The Lula of 2003 and the Lula Of 2023: From Pragmatism to Populism
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Nov 2023
In this report, we compare the objectives and the motivations – economic and political – underpinning the fiscal policy in two Lula administrations. The first (Lula 1), starting in 2003, was marked by an acute crisis of confidence, prompting Lula to be temporarily pragmatic, unconditionally accep...
German Foreign Minister visits Armenia and Azerbaijan on peace mission
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Nov 2023
On November 4 and 5 Annalena Baerbock visited the two countries. She is trying to prevent the conflict between the two Caucasian countries from breaking out anew. The European Union is trying to establish itself as a force in the region. Georgia was rejected for EU candidate membership in 2022 bu...
The CCJ should vote on Senator Braga’s report on Tax Reform tomorrow, the Joint Budget Committee should vote on Deputy Forte’s preliminary report, and the STF should resume analysis of the FGTS ADI
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Nov 2023
On Tuesday, November 7, the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) of the Senate may vote on Senator Eduardo Braga's (MDB-AM) report on the Tax Reform Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC). The objective is to vote on the text on Wednesday and Thursday in the plenary. Also on Tuesday, Novembe...
A widening fiscal deficit amid the conflict will require additional (but manageable) bond issuance
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Nov 2023
1. The shekel appreciated sharply last week as a result of both strong equity markets abroad and growing expectations that the war will be limited to Gaza. 2. Credit card purchases continue to expand modestly, but private consumption remains far below pre-war levels. 3. We expect a fiscal d...
A widening fiscal deficit will require additional (but manageable) bond issuance
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Nov 2023
Geopolitics: Israel’s ground operation into Gaza continues, as do sporadic missile fire into Israel from Hamas. There is much fog regarding the war, Israel has encircled Gaza city, a major Hamas stronghold including underground tunnels. International pressure for a cease-fire is mounting as civil...
Our election coverage kicks off
TURKEY · Report · 05 Nov 2023
In a development that may improve CHP’s chances of keeping big-city municipalities in the March 2024 local elections, delegates threw out incumbent Kemal Kilicdaroglu to crown “change” candidate Ozgur Ozel. The politics author thus initiates his local election coverage, tentatively concluding ...
Kazakhstan bans fuel exports to Tajikistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Nov 2023
On October 20 Kazakhstan made the move saying it needs fuel for itself. The bank covers liquefied petroleum gas, propane and butane. The ban is to last until 2026. A fuel price hike in Kazakhstan in January 2022 caused massive protests and riots that left over 200 dead. Therefore the government i...
US sanctions on countries accused of supplying Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Nov 2023
On November 3 the US said it was sanctioning individuals and entities whom it believes are enabling Russia to prosecute its war in Ukraine. The people and entities are from the United Arab Emirates, China and Turkey. Russia is sourcing technology and equipment for its armed forces from abroad. Ru...
EU Commission's evaluation of Hungary's judicial reform is delayed further by new questions
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Nov 2023
Following a letter with questions sent out on September 26, which the government answered on October 19, the EU Commission sent another letter with new questions regarding 'certain elements' of Hungary's judicial reforms on November 1, a Commission spokesman told the Hungarian press the other day...
Kazakhstan hosts Turkic Summit
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Nov 2023
On November 3 the members of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) met in Astana. It marked the 10th anniversary of the OTS. The presidents of its members attended. The Kazakh president stated the 8 pillars for his chairmanship of the OTS in 2024. He seeks deeper cooperation. There is talk of ...
Senior Ukrainian general says war is a stalemate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Nov 2023
On November 1 Valery Zaluzhny said in an article in The Economist that neither side can make a breakthrough unless they get new technology. He tacitly admitted that the counter-offensive had failed. Zaluzhny is asking for long term aid. He says a war of attrition favors Russia, which outnumbers U...