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Good news from the ECB: no MNB recapitalisation is needed in 2024
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Sep 2023

Finance Minister Varga announced this morning that the ECB endorsed the government's intention not to carry out any recapitalisation of the MNB in 2024, despite the expected occurrence of about HUF2000bn negative capital in the Bank's balance sheet at end-2023. According to the announcement, the ...

CBRT’s unenviable uphill battle
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Sep 2023

Consumer prices rose by a near-double digit monthly rate of 9.1% in August (August 2022: 1.5%), significantly higher than consensus forecasts and our own, atop a 9.5% increase in July. The twelve-month rate rose sharply to almost 60% -- 58.9%, to be precise -- from 47.8% in July. Monthly PPI infl...

President Zelenskiy Replaces Minister of Defense to Ease Tensions
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Sep 2023

The news about the replacement of Minister of Defense Oleksiy Reznikov dominated the headlines yesterday. This serves as an excellent example of how the reputation of a corrupt country can have negative repercussions at the most inopportune times. Since the beginning of 2023, Oleksiy Reznikov has...

Rates remain on hold, but MPC concerned about further shekel depreciation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Sep 2023

Rates remained steady at the September 4 meeting, with the BoI announcement noting that "Inflation is moderating, but is still above the target range, economic activity in Israel remains at a high level but a number of indicators point to some moderation in growth, the labor market remains tight ...

Wage pressure remains acute
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Sep 2023

Wage pressure remains acute The average nominal wage increased by 6.0% y/y in June and by 6.2% in July (initial estimate). Trend data point to wage acceleration in the Q2 to an annual pace of 7.7%, especially in food and accommodation and manufacturing. The labor market remains tight (3% unemploy...

Gearing up for an eventful autumn
TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2023

Putin finally granted Erdogan a summit in September, which bodes well for the future of “frenemy” relationship, but Erdogan’s hopes of midwifing a second grain deal are probably dead. At home, both alliances are negotiating already about local election alliances, which will be held in March 20...

Top Ukrainian oligarch arrested
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Sep 2023

On September 2 Ihor Kolomoisky was arrested on suspicion of fraud and money laundering. He will be held in pre-trial detention for two months. He allegedly illegally sent USD 14 million abroad to other countries. Ukraine is eager to prove that it is cracking down on corruption. There is disquiet ...

A follow up to our monthly report: GDP and Moody's
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Sep 2023

Detailed GDP data for Q2 data was published and Moody's sovereign rating review took place on September 1, Friday. Two days earlier, we said in our monthly report that Moody's might move Hungary to Negative from Stable outlook, both attached to a Baa2 rating. We also said the Q2 GDP data may have...

Russia moving more arms to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Sep 2023

On August 31 it was announced by the Russian Space Agency that the Sarmat strategic next generation missile was deployed for combat. Putin described it as invincible. Russian state media avidly reported the deployment. Putin said in June 2023 that the missile would soon be ready. It was supposedl...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil rises despite Iranian surge, Qatar has Q2 fiscal surplus, Qatar’s GDP strong in Q1 (bar construction), Bahrain prison hunger strike continues
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Sep 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude rose to $88, despite a surge in Iranian output, on expectations of longer Saudi cuts. * Another Saudi gigaproject was announced, Marafy, a waterfront redevelopment in Jeddah. * The Saudi industry minister visi...

Essential CIS Politics: September 2023
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 01 Sep 2023

* Yevgeny Prigozhin and Wagner top brass were killed in a plane crash. * Ukraine’s counter-offensive has made little progress, and Russia is pushing back in NE Ukraine. * BRICS Summit closes with ambitions to rival G7. * Drones forced Moscow airports to suspend flight...

The 2024 Federal Budget was submitted to Congress yesterday, September 7 is a federal holiday, and President Lula will participate in the G20 meeting next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Sep 2023

Yesterday, the proposal for the Federal Budget for 2024 was submitted to the National Congress. The bill, prepared based on the new fiscal framework, follows the goal of a zero primary deficit next year as a proportion of GDP. Next week, with the September 7 holiday, we will have a relatively emp...

The Central Bank reduces the monetary policy rate by 25 basis points
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Sep 2023

Yesterday the Central Bank decided to reduce the monetary policy rate from 7.75% per year to 7.50% per year. The rate of the permanent liquidity expansion facility was also reduced by 25 basis points, going from 8.25% per year to 8.00% per year. However, the Central Bank opted for a greater reduc...

Growth deceleration and fiscal headaches
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Sep 2023 · 1 response

The three main healthcare insurers wrote a letter to the Minister of Health, and made it public, claiming that they see severe difficulties for their short-term financial viability. The argued that the money transferred by the system was insufficient to meet their costs; that the distribution of ...

Rate-hold decision expected, at least for now
ISRAEL · Report · 01 Sep 2023

1. We expect a rate-hold decision on Monday, with inflation moderation the overwhelming consideration. 2. Much uncertainty remains regarding who the next Governor will be, and we could see Deputy Governor Abir fill the position for quite some time. 3. Private consumption indicators point ...

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