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Things are heating up
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Aug 2023

While opposition primary elections face uncertainties and external and internal obstacles, the government is navigating toward poor quality elections bound to prolong Venezuela’s political conflict. A brief window of opportunity remains open for entering into internationally mediated negotiations...

Economics: Data released in July reaffirm the internal market as the main growth catalyst as trade continues to subside
MEXICO · Report · 01 Aug 2023

While the expansion of industrial activity actually accelerated above its average pace year to date in May, manufacturing abdicated its role as the main driver as it almost stalled. But the difference was more than offset by much stronger numbers from construction (thanks to civil engineering wor...

Armenia: Central Bank cuts policy rate as expected, further easing on the cards
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 01 Aug 2023

The Central Bank of Armenia cut the policy rate by 25bpts to 10.25 percent. This is the second cut since the earlier 25bpt move on Jun 13th. The decision now establishes a path in the easing cycle that we anticipate will bring the refinancing rate to 8.50-9.00 percent by the end of the year. The ...

Central Asian banks no longer transfer money to Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Aug 2023

On July 20 the US Treasury introduced sanctions on Unistream (a Russian money transfer company). Unistream dealt with former Soviet countries in Central Asia and the Caucasus. The US sanctions seem to be working. On July 24 Kazpochta and Nurbank said that they will not process payments to Russia ...

Mid-term report: Good numbers but not on the Dean's List. Cabinet approves the 2024 budget. Microchips enter the economic scenario.
PANAMA · Report · 31 Jul 2023

GDP growth for 2023 is expected at 6.2%, driven by internal demand, mainly consumption. The medium-term GDP projection has a less rosy outlook due to the likely end of the impact of the sharp Colon Free Zone sales to Europe in 2023, as well as mining output effects. Employment remains steady, but...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Jul 2023

More favorable international winds along with (preliminary) approval of the fiscal framework and tax reform package, the latter two developments prompting Fitch to raise Brazil’s credit rating to BB, have brought alleviation in the past few weeks. The end of the congressional recess in August por...

Politics: The complicated relationship between violence, organized crime, elections and the US
MEXICO · Report · 31 Jul 2023

Four and a half years into President López Obrador’s administration criminal violence endures as the toughest challenge facing the country. Even before AMLO took office that view was shared by well over 40% of registered voters, a perception that faded throughout the Covid-19 pandemic as people w...

The economic agenda in Congress and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Jul 2023

The Legislature and Judiciary resume activity. The House may vote on the new fiscal framework. In the Senate, the Tax Reform rapporteur may present his work schedule. Negotiations on Ministerial Reform continue. The BC decides on the basic interest rate. Cristiano Zanin takes office at the STF. ...

Russian Navy Day is held despite drone attacks on Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Jul 2023

On July 30 Russia celebrated Navy Day. Putin was in St Petersburg. Presidents from four African countries were present. Iran sent two ships to participate. Russia displayed 46 vessels for the naval review. Putin announced 30 new ships will be built for the navy in 2023. He said almost nothing abo...

Legislative and judicial activities resume tomorrow, Cristiano Zanin takes office as justice of the STF on Thursday, and ministers participate in preparatory meetings ahead of the BRICS summit
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Jul 2023

This week, activities will resume in the National Congress and the Judiciary. Some topics should be discussed, such as the fiscal framework, which may be put to a vote this week. Additionally, this week's agenda also includes Cristiano Zanin's inauguration as justice of the Supreme Federal Court ...

Market volatility in reaction to judicial legislation
ISRAEL · Report · 31 Jul 2023

1. The shekel weakened by over 2% last week due to the judicial legislation that is weakening the power of the Supreme Court. 2. This will impact inflation and could support further monetary tightening. 3. We expect GDP growth to slow next year, to 1.8% from 3.4% this year.

Georgia: 1H23 growth performance in line with our more constructive outlook for the year
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 31 Jul 2023

The Statistical Office reported today that the rapid estimate of economic growth expanded by 7.7 percent YoY in June. The monthly indicator is calculated using administrative data on VAT taxpayers’ turnover, fiscal and monetary statistics. For those sectors, where preliminary monthly data do not ...

Tajikistan: Inflation reaches a bottom in June, set to inch up over 2H23
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 31 Jul 2023

Headline inflation rose by 2.4 percent YoY in June, on par with the May print, but core inflation increased slightly to 2.2 percent YoY from 2.1 percent YoY in May. The National Bank of Tajikistan reported the Jun breakdown of inflation, as usual with significant delay. Headline inflation expande...

Armenia: Fitch upgrades Armenia to BB-
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 31 Jul 2023

Fitch upgraded Armenia from B+ to BB- citing improved growth prospects and lower public debt levels. The decision was not a surprise for two reasons. First, Armenia was the only country in our CCA coverage where there was some difference in the rating among rating agencies, with Moody's having Ar...

Turkmen population thought to have fallen dramatically
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Jul 2023

On July 14 the government published census data claiming that there are 7 million people in the Central Asian country. This is up from 6.7 million in 2026. There was a census in 2012 but the data remains a secret possibly because it was so embarrassing. Between 2008 and 2018 about 2 million peopl...

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