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Market volatility in reaction to judicial legislation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Jul 2023

The passing of the reasonableness cancellation law impacts markets Last week, markets reacted to the passing of the law cancelling the ability of the Supreme court to overturn government policy if deemed “unreasonable”. Following the decision, the shekel sold off and then stabilized (down 2.3% ag...

The state of the nation (and macro)
TURKEY · Report · 30 Jul 2023

In this last weekly report before the summer recess, the politics author briefly discusses the “state of the nation”. In foreign relations, President Erdogan’s U-turn looks more permanent than his experimentation with quasi-orthodoxy in economic policy. In terms of Gulf funds, there is very visib...

Russian macro: industry to grow steadily in 2023, but capacity issues may hamper future growth
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Jul 2023

Rosstat reported that Russia’s industrial output increased by 2.6% y-o-y in 1H23, by 6.3% in 2Q23 and by 6.5% y-o-y in June alone. Recall that industrial output contracted by 0.9% y-o-y in 1Q23. There are still strong base effects associated with last year's 1H22 shock caused by the special milit...

Kazakhstan's debt market: no change
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 28 Jul 2023

Kazakhstan's debt market remains relatively calm. The growth of interest rates in the US and the EU apparently stopped the government from entering the foreign market in 1H23, even though the CDS spread has decreased by almost 100 bps since the beginning of the year, creating a favorable opportun...

Peru: Boluarte vows for consensus
PERU · In Brief · 28 Jul 2023 · 1 response

Today President Boluarte went to Congress and delivered her annual speech. Being highly unpopular, the speech was an attempt to reach out the opposition and the population at large. Left-wing parties are demanding her resignation, although they do not have the votes in Congress to force an impeac...

Outlook mixed, with traditional politicians contenders
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Jul 2023

Costa Rica´s economy presented a mixed balance during H1. On the positive side, the country displayed good momentum in real sector accounts, inflation dropped faster than expected and international reserves increased. On the negative side, economic activity in the definitive regime remained low, ...

GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait’s fiscal surplus tops GCC, rates hiked with Fed, Qatar appoints UAE ambassador
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Jul 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The GCC’s aggregate fiscal surplus in 2022 was 5.9% of GDP, the most since 2013. * Kuwait was the last to publish its outturn data, with the largest surplus, about 12% of GDP. * Brent crude touched $84, the highest since ...

Russia offers free grain to six African countries
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jul 2023

On July 27 the Russia-Africa Summit took place. Putin promised grain to 6 countries. This came after Russia ended the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Russia will provide up to 50,000 tons to Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Eritrea, Somalia and the Central African Republic. Eritrea was the only one of t...

Minister Tebet said she was not informed of Lula’s intention to appoint Márcio Pochmann as the new president of the IBGE, legislative activity will resume on Monday, and pressure for ministerial reform will continue
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jul 2023

The Minister of Planning, Simone Tebet, who is responsible for the IBGE, confirmed that she was not informed in advance that economist Márcio Pochmann would be appointed. But she did say she was aware that the position would eventually be filled by the president. This was the last week before the...

Disinflation and the BOP are on track, but fiscal adjustment remains a problem
HUNGARY · Forecast · 28 Jul 2023

The current year is clearly devoted to macroeconomic adjustment, as the government is concentrating heavily on restoring price stability and putting the external and fiscal balances in order, following the serious damage caused by high energy prices and the election-year loosening of spending pol...

The latest cabinet reshuffle
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Jul 2023

A few months ago, the Indonesian government suffered a blow after one of its Cabinet Ministers was detained for a corruption case. The amount involved in the case was more than 8 trillion rupiahs, or slightly more than 500 million USD. The accused minister held the portfolio of Communication and ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 27 Jul 2023

Jul 17 KazTransOil: The company increased oil transportation by 7% y-o-y in 1H23 to 21.4 mln tons Bureau of National Statistics: Industrial production in Kazakhstan in 1H23 grew by 3.8% y-o-y Bureau of National Statistics: Investments in fixed assets increased by 13.1% y-o-y in 1H23 to KZT6.7 trl...

Inflation report presentation: some quick reactions
TURKEY · Report · 27 Jul 2023

The CBRT released the year’s third Inflation Report today, which corresponded with Governor Erkan’s first public appearance. The Bank revised the yearend inflation forecast up substantially to 58% (mid-point), from 22.3% previously, citing several reasons like increases in food and administered p...

Fitch raised Brazil's credit rating to "BB", the Ministry of Finance announced a series of measures to increase access to credit, and Márcio Pochmann will become the president of the IBGE
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jul 2023

The credit rating agency Fitch raised Brazil's credit rating from "BB-" to "BB". The agency took into account that Brazil's macroeconomic and fiscal performance was better than expected. The autonomy of the Central Bank, the pension reform, and especially, the Tax Reform and new fiscal framework ...

The NBU starts easing cycle, cuts prime rate by 3 ppt to 22%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Jul 2023

The recovering economy, slowing inflation, and stabilized FX market have prompted the NBU Board to initiate an easing cycle, beginning with a prime rate cut of 3 ppt, down to 22%. This marks the first rate cut since the large-scale invasion began. The NBU also indicates that further easing is exp...

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