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Ukraine says counteroffensive is in progress
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Jun 2023

On June 10 Zelensky publicly confirmed that it has commenced. Unsurprisingly, he declined to delve into detail. Russia says it is battling in the south and east of Ukraine. The US-based Institute for the Study of War said that Ukraine has an advantage according to Russia because it has night opti...

Putin says Ukraine's counter-offensive has failed so far
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Jun 2023

On June 9 Putin made the statement and added that the Ukrainians have suffered serious losses. Until then he avoided commenting on it. He stated that the counter-offensive had definitely commenced 5 days ago. Ukraine has not said this. Putin's statement could be taken as a sign that the situation...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil market shrugs off OPEC+ and Iran rumors, Qatar has strong Q1 surplus, opposition wins another Kuwait election, PGA and LIV Gulf merge
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Jun 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The oil market shrugged off the Saudi 1m b/d July cuts and the extension of OPEC+ into 2024. * Reports of resumed US-Iran talks and a possible interim deal briefly spooked the oil market. * Saudi non-oil GDP grew by 4.6% ...

Ukrainian counter-offensive seems to have begun
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Jun 2023

On June 8 The Washington Post said that four Ukrainian military personnel had told them that the counter-offensive is already underway. It is certainly true that Ukrainian attacks are increasing in frequency and ferocity. The Washington Post said that the objectives are to retake land and to main...

The current account surplus appears narrower than reported previously
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Jun 2023

The CBR published its updated estimates of selected items of the current account for 4M23 and the 5M23 data. It appears that reality now looks somewhat different relative to the previous perception. According to the CBR’s release a month ago, the current account surplus in April and 4M23 was $5.2...

States are criticizing the VAT measure of the Tax Reform proposal, the STF should vote on the case regarding taxing the operating income of financial institutions, and the CPMI is expected to vote on invitation requests
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jun 2023

Ten states took a stand against the new Value Added Tax (VAT). According to the guidelines approved by the Working Group of the House, a federal and a state VAT will be created. In the state VAT, which will be the Tax on Goods and Services (IBS), there would be shared management between states an...

BSP cuts reserve requirement ratio
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Jun 2023

The BSP today announced reductions in banks’ reserve requirement ratios (RRR) to be implemented starting June 30. As we had expected, the reduction will coincide with the expiration of a pandemic response measure that allowed loans to small firms to be counted as part of reserves. The BSP emphasi...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Jun 2023

Some acceleration of inflation during the last week to 0.21% w-o-w caused some nervousness among investors. Given the previous moderately hawkish rhetoric of the CBR, many didn’t rule out that the regulator could have raised the key rate today. We didn’t see the necessity to do that, as overall C...

South Africa’s current account deficit narrows in Q1-2023
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Jun 2023

The latest current account data released by the South African Reserve Bank shows that, during the first quarter of 2023, while South Africa’s current account recorded its fourth consecutive deficit since Q2-2022, the deficit was smaller than that of the preceding quarter. The Q1-2023 deficit narr...

Yesss! CPI-inflation reported sharply down in May
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jun 2023

The headline rates were -0.4% mom, 21.5% yoy, the latter down from 24% yoy in April, and the first time since November 2020 that consumer prices fell on a monthly basis. Core inflation was a significantly less impressive +0.5% mom, but the year-on-year rate still fell markedly, to 22.8% in May fr...

Finland expels 9 Russian diplomats
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jun 2023

On June 7 Finland said that the diplomats were working in an intelligence capacity. Finland said this was a breach of the Vienna Convention. The Finnish Intelligence Service assessed the diplomats to be undercover intelligence officers and said the expulsions would seriously impair Russian intell...

Russian political/pandemic update: crises as usual
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Jun 2023

It looks as though the mood of the Russian society was probably somehow shaken by drone attacks that occurred in several cities, including Moscow. Apart from that, May was a relatively quiet month for the majority of Russians (except for those living in the regions close to the Ukrainian borders)...

Lula is considering making changes to the ministerial team, the Working Group on Tax Reform approved the guidelines of the rapporteur’s report, and tomorrow, June 8, is a federal holiday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Jun 2023

Some changes in the ministerial team should soon take place. The goal is to improve the relationship with Congress. The ministries of Tourism and Communications will likely be changed. There are rumors in the market about Fernando Haddad replacing Rui Costa as Chief of Staff. Yesterday, the Worki...

Growing pains
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 07 Jun 2023

With his high popularity ratings intact, President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. steps into his second year in office with another advantage: the business sector has become more at ease with his leadership style. However, he will have a tougher challenge growing the economy. Locally, GDP growth has slo...

The Federal budget in balance in April as spending moderated
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Jun 2023

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 5M23, the federal budget deficit was almost the same as in 4M23 (R3.4 trln), implying that in April, it was balanced (in fact, there was a tiny surplus). Spending moderated last month as the ministry spent slightly over R2.0 trln. Average monthly spending ...

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