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Economics: 2023 growth projections upwardly revised to 1.8%, but reduced for 2024
MEXICO · Report · 09 May 2023

Consumption and gross fixed capital formation figures for the first two months of the year, as well as preliminary GDP growth data for the first quarter (3.9%) were higher than expected, leading us to upwardly revise our growth projection for 2023 to 1.8%. Although the expectation of a recession ...

April CPI-inflation due tomorrow, first significant move downwards expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 May 2023

The median analyst, by Portfolio.hu's poll, expects 0.7% mom, 24% yoy, the latter down from 25.2% yoy in March. We are even more optimistic than this, expecting 0.8% mom for non-fuel inflation and -3.4% mom for fuels, the latter being an estimated actual, based on hontankoljak.net's data, a local...

Politics: AMLO’s moves against legislative branch norms and functioning are a warning sign
MEXICO · Report · 08 May 2023

A series of reforms approved by the Senate in the last few days of April are being widely viewed and criticized, not so much for their content (as in many of the cases), but rather due to the implications for the future of Mexican democracy inherent in how they were enacted. Critics among opposit...

The Decision of the COPOM
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 May 2023

At the last COPOM meeting, the SELIC rate was kept at 13.75%. With a serene tone and clear technical support, the Central Bank’s communiqué stated clearly there was no outlook for the foreseeable future to start an easing cycle. Besides the conflict between restrictive monetary policy and expansi...

Difficulties in the House and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 May 2023

The rapporteur for the new fiscal framework, Claudio Cajado, will submit his report on Wednesday, May 10. The vote in the plenary of the House is scheduled for May 16 and 17. Minister Fernando Haddad travels to Japan to participate in preparatory meetings for the G7. This week's Talking Points...

Ukraine beats off mass drone attack
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 May 2023

On May 8 Russia launched 60 Iranian-made Shahed kamikaze drones on several cities in Ukraine. Ukraine said it shot down almost all the drones and casualties were minimal and only among civilians. Russia claims to have hit Ukrainian troops with its attack. This is the 4th attack in 8 days. Ukraine...

Uzbekistan announces presidential election is coming early
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 May 2023

On May 8 the announcement did not set a date for the election. However, the law says that the election must be held within 2 months of the announcement. The President said the election is to be held so he can implement the constitutional reforms. Others believe it is so the opposition has minimal...

Car bomb in Russia targets pro-war activist
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 May 2023

On May 6 a car in which Zakhar Prilepin was traveling was bombed, but he survived. His driver was killed. The attack took place in Nizhny Novgorod, 850 km from the Ukraine border. A suspect has been arrested. Prilepin is a former soldier and hardline nationalist novelist. He has often been to Eas...

Lula once again criticized the Central Bank while in London, Deputy Cajado will submit his report on the fiscal framework on Wednesday, May 10, and Arthur Lira is in New York this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 May 2023

President Lula said that the basic interest rate (Selic) at 13.75% inhibits investment and economic growth. He is expected to appoint two new directors to the Central Bank in the next few days. Deputy Cláudio Cajado (PP-BA), rapporteur for the new fiscal framework, will submit his report on the t...

Important gains in early 2023
INDIA · Report · 08 May 2023

The labor market has long been intractably stuck, with the number of persons working at about 400 million. In April 2023, this jumped by 22 million persons to about 430 million. This is first suggestion of an important change in the labor market in many years. Perception-based measures of how ...

Chile's Constitutional Council Elections
CHILE · In Brief · 08 May 2023 · 1 response

Chileans voted yesterday for the fifty members of the Constitutional Council which will spend the coming months designing the constitutional proposal that will be presented to voters in a referendum on 17 December. This is the second attempt at approving a new constitution after Chileans rejected...

The business sector is increasingly pessimistic
ISRAEL · Report · 08 May 2023

1. The Business Tendency Survey reflects growing pessimism in the coming months. 2. Headline GDP growth in Q123 is likely to be weak. 3. Markets will await the S&P rating report regarding Israel’s outlook on Friday; the stable outlook is likely to be maintained.

The business sector is increasingly pessimistic
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 May 2023

The business sector is increasingly pessimistic The Business Tendency Survey reflects fairly steady growth in April, but the expectations three months ahead declined sharply to reflect basically no growth. The expectations for employment also declined. The high-tech service sector is expecting a ...

Russia evacuating nuclear power station area in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 May 2023

On May 6 authorities in the Russian-occupied district of Ukraine ordered thousands of civilians to evacuate. The Russian-appointed administration announced that over 1,500 have been evacuated already. The region contains the largest nuclear power station in Europe. The International Atomic Energy...

Alea iacta est
TURKEY · Report · 07 May 2023 · 1 response

The politics author admits his essays contain little new information except a modest revision to his scenarios for the Grand Assembly. In brief, he expects the opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu to declare victory in the second round, with an uneasy coalition of the Nation and Green-Left All...

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