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Lula met with Haddad yesterday to discuss Tax Reform, Haddad will meet with Deputy Motta today to discuss strategies for economic growth, and Haddad will give an interview later tonight
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Feb 2025

Yesterday, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad met with President Lula to discuss the veto within the regulatory framework of Tax Reform regarding the taxation of real estate investment funds (FIIs) and agribusiness investment funds (Fiagros). Today, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad is set to meet w...

The current account deficit widened in 4Q24, and January tax collection is likely to be poor
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 05 Feb 2025

The National Bank of Kazakhstan reported that the current account deficit widened to $2.9 bln in 4Q24 (versus $0.3 trln in 3Q24) and reached $4.4 bln in 2024. In 4Q24, exports decreased by about $1.2 bln compared to 3Q24, while imports rose by $0.9 bln. Lower oil prices and limited volumes of exp...

Not alone in the driver’s seat
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Feb 2025

The minutes of the last Copom meeting displayed a harsher tone compared to the statement released last week but kept open the next steps after the March meeting. For now, the indication of another 1 percentage point increase still stands.

Inflation report: NBU sidesteps discussion on 2025’s potential defining event
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Feb 2025

The NBU released its latest inflation report last Friday and held an expert discussion on the document today. The best way to describe the report would be ‘indistinct.’ The inflation forecast was revised upward to +8.4% YTD in 2025 (from the previously projected 6.9%), while the GDP growth foreca...

Lula met with the presidents of the House and Senate to strengthen ties, a poll shows Lula would be a strong candidate should he run for re-election, and the agribusiness sector is concerned about possible tariffs from the US
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Feb 2025

Yesterday, President Lula met with the president of the Lower House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), and of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP). The meeting was significant, signaling the Executive’s intent to strengthen ties with the Legislative branch. Yesterday, a Genial/Quaest poll on the 20...

Consequences of the decline in government approval and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Feb 2025

The Legislative and Judicial branches resume their activities. The pace in the Legislature this week is expected to be slow, with negotiations taking place regarding members of the standing committees in both Houses. On Saturday, truck drivers will meet in São Paulo to discuss the sector’s list o...

A coy central bank in the face of inflation?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Feb 2025

Recent data suggests an unfavorable inflationary trend, marked by the acceleration of its underlying measures. Our forecast points to an inflation rate of 5.8% in 2025, above the level recorded in 2024 and, therefore, also above the tolerance limit for the inflation target. We use our semi-struct...

Politics: Judicial reform running into serious obstacles with the election of judges just four months away
MEXICO · Report · 03 Feb 2025

Morena and the Fourth Transformation’s “Judicial Reform” is encountering major obstacles in its implementation. The reform, based on the popular election of Supreme Court justices, judges, and magistrates on a federal, state, and local level, is viewed as a way of eliminating what has been the ma...

Economics: Activity slowdown projected to continue and deepen in 2025
MEXICO · Report · 03 Feb 2025

The 4Q24 economic indicators point to a continued and deepening slowdown for 2025. 4Q GDP clocked in at a lackluster seasonally adjusted annual 0.6%. This result brought 2024 GDP growth to 1.5%, in line with estimates and less than half the 2023 result. We project weak 0.3% GDP growth for 2025 t...

Congressional activity resumes this week, Lula should submit two important bills to Congress, and the Supreme Federal Court resumes adjudication of major cases
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Feb 2025

With the resumption of activity in the Judiciary and the Legislature, Brasilia is expected to have a busy month. The government’s initial goal is to ensure the approval of the 2025 Budget. President Lula is expected to submit two important proposals to Congress as part of a strategy to boost the ...

A not so auspicious start into 2025
TURKEY · Report · 03 Feb 2025

Consumer prices rose by 5%, m/m, in January, significantly above the consensus forecast of about 4.3%. But thanks to a strong base effect from last January, the 12-month rate nevertheless fell further to 42.1%, from 44.4% in December. Monthly domestic PPI inflation was also relatively elevated, p...

Amid rising political tensions, economy holding up – for now
TURKEY · Report · 02 Feb 2025

The Erdogan-Bahceli regime launched a new crackdown, which spares no victims. These range from the CEO of a casting agency to party leaders. The politics author fails to find an overarching theme that ties the victims together, but if silencing every voice that opposes it will be the modus operan...

Perú: Cabinet Reshuffle
PERU · In Brief · 01 Feb 2025 · 1 response

Last night, President Boluarte reshuffled her Cabinet and changed three ministers: Minister of Finance, José Arista; Minister of Social Inclusion, Julio Demartini; and Women and Vulnerable Population, Teresa Hernández. For weeks have been rumors of a reshuffle, and most anticipated that Interior ...

Essential CIS Politics: February 2025
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 31 Jan 2025

- Russia signs strategic partnership with Iran, as rumors of an Opec-style gas cartel become more realistic. - Trump scales up threats of sanctions and tariffs if peace negotiations do not progress. - Armenia begins the EU accession process. - Lukashenko wins a 7th term in ...

GULF WEEKLY: Strong Q4 Saudi GDP, Dubai-AD rail link, Oman income tax debated, Trump proposes Gaza relocation
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 31 Jan 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil prices declined for a second week, but the premium of Gulf crude over Brent is at a record $2. * Rystad forecasts the share of renewables in GCC electricity to surge from 3% to 70% by 2050. * The Saudi Q4 flash GDP re...

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