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GULF WEEKLY: Strong Q4 Saudi GDP, Dubai-AD rail link, Oman income tax debated, Trump proposes Gaza relocation
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 31 Jan 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil prices declined for a second week, but the premium of Gulf crude over Brent is at a record $2. * Rystad forecasts the share of renewables in GCC electricity to surge from 3% to 70% by 2050. * The Saudi Q4 flash GDP re...

The Central Bank Pauses the Monetary Policy Interest Rate Reduction Cycle
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 31 Jan 2025

At its monetary policy meeting in January 2025, the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD) decided to maintain its monetary policy interest rate (MPR) at 5.75% per annum. Similarly, the rate for the permanent liquidity expansion facility (1-day Repos) remains at 6.25% per annum, while the ...

Kazakhstan macro: government considering reform agenda amid overspending and fiscal difficulties
KAZAKHSTAN · Forecast · 31 Jan 2025 · 1 response

The Kazakh Ministry of Finance recently released the budgetary statistics for full-year 2024. The figures didn’t look impressive, either for the republican budget or the National Fund, because their revenues strongly depend on the exchange rate. Local budgets, however, performed very well because...

2024 Budget well executed
INDONESIA · Report · 31 Jan 2025

The Indonesian Ministry of Finance reported the performance of Indonesian Government Budget for the year 2024. The budget had faced a huge challenge due to the volatility of commodity prices, the general election and the transition to the new presidency. However, the Ministry of Finance reported ...

Lula gave an interview yesterday, the elections for the presidencies of the House and Senate will be held tomorrow, and Congress will resume activity next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Jan 2025

President Lula gave a lengthy interview to journalists yesterday afternoon. He said he intends to make these meetings more frequent. One of the questions he was asked was about the possibility of new fiscal measures. Lula said that nothing is currently on the radar. This Saturday, elections will...

Jan CCA Highlights: Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia keep rates unchanged, Georgia's 2024 GDP soars to 9.5%, FX reserves reach record-high level in Uzbekistan
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 31 Jan 2025

We discuss key macro and political events in the CCA during Jan: Armenia: Armenia plans to issue new Eurobonds in 2025 Armenia: Monthly economic indicator rises by 4.7% YoY in Dec Armenia: 2025 public debt payments to exceed US$2.4bn Armenia: CPI increases to 1.5% YoY in Dec Armenia: FX re...

Webinar replay and slide presentation: Poland - Economic trends, political shifts, and the path forward
POLAND · Report · 31 Jan 2025

As part of the GlobalSource Partners' Poland research service launch, we invite you to listen to the replay of a webinar on the country's outlook featuring Jan Hagemejer, one of the world’s leading authorities on Poland’s macroeconomics, international trade and structural issues. What drives ...

Belligerence nearly tanks a critical relationship
COLOMBIA · Report · 31 Jan 2025 · 2 responses

The usual friendly weekend vibe was ruined for many Colombians on Sunday, January 26th, when a dispute over Colombia’s refusal to receive a planeload of undocumented Colombians arriving from the United States broke out between U.S. President Donald Trump and Colombian President Gustavo Petro – th...

Playing with fire
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Jan 2025

As announced at the end of last year, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) raised the target for the benchmark interest rate to 13.25% per year and maintained its guidance for another hike of the same magnitude in the next meeting.

The South African Reserve Bank’s third consecutive rate cut amid rising uncertainties
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 30 Jan 2025

Having convened for its first 2025 meeting this week, the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced its interest rate decision today. In line with market expectations, the MPC voted to reduce the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.5%. This marks the third...

The Copom increased the benchmark interest rate by one percentage point, Haddad announced the expansion of payroll-deductible loans, and truck drivers will meet to discuss potential diesel price increases
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Jan 2025

As expected, the Central Bank raised the benchmark interest rate (Selic) by 1 percentage point, bringing it to 13.25% per year. In an effort to create a positive agenda, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad (PT) announced the expansion of payroll-deductible loans through a new virtual platform that w...

Preliminary Q4 GDP in line with expectation, more or less
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Jan 2025

Real GDP (preliminary, seasonally and day-adjusted) grew by 0.5% qoq, 0.2% yoy in Q4 2024, implying 0.6% growth for the whole of 2024, after -0.8% in 2023. Analysts expected 0.2% growth for Q4, and the 2025 budget includes 0.8% growth for full-year 2024. Note: Real GDP growth in percent; Source: ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Jan 2025

The ruble appreciated by 3.6% since the start of the year despite the drop in oil prices. The latter resulted from the market reaction to some of Mr. Trump’s statements, which called for OPEC to lower energy prices. In our view, the main reason for the ruble to strengthen was the repatriation of ...

Anti-2025 budget group gathers force, to hold indignant rally January 31
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 29 Jan 2025

At the end of December 2024, we wrote that the Philippines’ national budget for 2025 may not be able to achieve those lofty goals of promoting higher food production, arresting inflation, elevating the quality of education and skills training as well as public health. Despite the protestations co...

Lula met with representatives from the real estate sector, the Planalto Palace is tackling food prices, and the Copom will meet today to decide on the benchmark interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jan 2025

Yesterday, representatives from the real estate sector met with President Lula and Finance Minister Fernando Haddad. The sector presented a list of concerns, including the FGTS birthday withdrawal, the risk of taxation on Real Estate Investment Funds, and issues regarding the Minha Casa, Minha Vi...

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