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Smooth Guatemalan transition expected; economies bearing up
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Aug 2023

Guatemala’s economy is expected to continue expanding in 2023 and 2024, though at a slower pace than in 2022. There are no signs of stagnation in our review of the forecast we presented in March. Internal political conditions in recent months have been complex, but we don't expect more political ...

Russian industry continues to expand, albeit annual growth decelerates
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Aug 2023

Rosstat reported that industrial output grew y-o-y by 2.6% in 7M23, which was higher than 2.2% in 1H23. At the same time, industrial y-o-y growth decelerated in July to 4.9% (from 6.7% and 5.8% in May and June). Of course, there were strong base effects several months ago - amid a low 2Q22 base. ...

Who will be the next Governor?
ISRAEL · In Brief · 29 Aug 2023

High-tech exports expand modestly High-tech service exports (a major economic driver) increased by 1.6% m/m in June and by 9.8% y/y (sa). The second quarter witnessed growth of 4% saar. June’s strong print will most likely support an upward revision in the second estimate for Q2 GDP. Although inv...

BRICS seek to project alternative to G7 after summit
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Aug 2023

 On August 25  the summit in South Africa ended. Russia was represented by the Foreign Minister. Putin did not go because South Africa has signed the Rome Statute and theoretically would have been obliged to carry out the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant.  BRICS agreed to move forwar...

Sterilisation rate fell by 100 bps to 14% today, just as expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Aug 2023

The Monetary Council acted in line with widespread expectation today. The O/N deposit rate and the repo rate were reduced by the same amount, the latter to 16.5%, whereas the base rate and the interest rate on the non-auction O/N deposit facility - the lower end of the interest rate corridor - we...

China’s debt cannot be resolved by shuffling debt-servicing costs
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 29 Aug 2023

Special points to highlight in this issue: * July data were very poor, indicating that weak demand continues to plague the Chinese economy. Imports were down, inflation was low, and retail sales seriously disappointed. * Debt creation in July was much lower than expected, but economic gro...

An MP was published on the taxation of exclusive and open funds, an agreement on the payroll tax exemption bill should be announced today, and the Senate is expected to discuss Tax Reform with governors
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Aug 2023

Yesterday, a provisional measure (MP) was published that equalizes tax rules between exclusive and open funds. The measure is part of the government's effort to bring the deficit to zero next year. As noted by the leader of the government in the House, José Guimarães (PT-CE), an agreement on the ...

Politics: The Paredes, Gálvez contest for the opposition candidacy has strengthened the alliance; the MC remains on the sidelines to date
MEXICO · Report · 29 Aug 2023

With just over a week to go, the field competing to become the opposition presidential candidate has been narrowed down to a politician of great experience and trajectory who represents the best of the party tradition (the PRI’s Beatriz Paredes), and a fresh and charismatic figure who unites and ...

Economics: Fruitless consultations give way to US and Canada's convening a trade panel over Mexico's restrictions on imports of GM corn
MEXICO · Report · 28 Aug 2023

The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) escalated on August 17 its objections to Mexico's curbs on genetically modified corn imports by requesting a dispute arbitration panel to address its objections to Mexico's curbs on imports of genetically modified (GM) white corn for the...

Post-fiscal framework legislative priorities and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Aug 2023 · 1 response

With President Lula's return to Brazil after the BRICS meeting, Ministerial Reform may be finalized. In the House, the highlight was the vote on payroll tax exemptions. In the Senate, the bill on the tie-breaking vote in the Administrative Council of Tax Appeals (CARF) will be put to a vote. On T...

Prigozhin confirmed dead
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Aug 2023

On August 27 Russian authorities said a DNA examination of the 10 people who died when Prigozhin's plane crashed determined that he is among the dead. The Russian Civil Aviation Authority has been working very fast on its investigation and has recovered the black box. The other victims were mostl...

Losing momentum
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 28 Aug 2023

We are nudging down our forecast for this year from 5.5% to 5.2%. We had expected consumption to slow down as pent-up demand eased and inflation erodes purchasing power, but the government’s considerable 2Q spending underperformance was a surprise. Also, here as elsewhere, Chinese tourism disappo...

United States and China
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Aug 2023

With the end of the pandemic, the Chinese and American economies are facing challenges. In the United States, the huge monetary and fiscal stimuli that boosted the economy have generated the highest inflation in the past 40 years, prompting the Federal Reserve to drastically tighten monetary poli...

Ministerial Reform may be finalized this week, the House should vote on the bill that extends the payroll tax exemption, and the Senate should vote on the CARF bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Aug 2023

With President Lula's return to Brazil after the BRICS meeting, Ministerial Reform may be finalized. The PP and Republicanos are waiting for a decision regarding which ministries they will be given, including the Ports and Airports, Science and Technology, Sports, and Social Development ministrie...

An unexpected second runner-up
ECUADOR · Report · 28 Aug 2023

While the presidential outcome that placed Daniel Noboa in second place in the first-round presidential election came as a surprise to virtually every Ecuadorian, the results obtained in the Assembly and its distribution were in line with our expectations. Four blocs will represent close to ...

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