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Chinese President in Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Mar 2023

On March 20 President Xi visited Putin. Russia is very glad to receive him. Xi said his visit is about ''friendship, cooperation and peace.'' Xi published an article in a Russian newspaper saying, ''I look forward to working with Putin to jointly adopt a new vision.'' China claims to be neutral i...

Politics: The contradictions and problems of militarizing public security
MEXICO · Report · 20 Mar 2023

The twin issues of public security and its militarization, specifically the role of the Armed Forces and National Guard, are once again on the front burner in Mexico. The latest spark was a February 26 incident involving students traveling home after a night of partying in border city Nuevo Lared...

COPOM, FOMC and ECB: Central Banks Carrying Out Their Mandates
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Mar 2023

Robert Mundell, who won a Nobel Prize for Economics in 1999, expressed the “principle of effective market classification”, advocating the use of each economic policy instrument in pursuit of the objective with the greatest efficiency. The instrument that has a “comparative advantage” to stanch a ...

Lula to travel to China and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Mar 2023

The government should submit the new fiscal framework to Congress. On Wednesday, March 22, the Central Bank will decide on the basic interest rate. President Lula (PT) will travel to China, joined by ministers, legislators, and businessmen. This week's Talking Points: * Lula to travel to C...

Uemployment declines sharply
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Mar 2023 · 1 response

Unemployment declined in February to 3.9% from 4.3% in January (sa) with the employment ratio up to 61.4% from 61.2% (employed/working age population). The number of employed continued to increase  fairly rapidly in February. This positive labor print strengthens our conviction that the likelihoo...

The government may submit the new fiscal framework bill, the Copom will meet on Tuesday to discuss the basic interest rate, and Lula will travel to China this weekend
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Mar 2023

The government may submit a supplementary bill to Congress on the new fiscal framework. Last week, the economic team presented the text to President Lula (PT). The bill will first be analyzed in the House. The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank will meet this Tuesday and Wednes...

Inflation remains sticky and broad based
ISRAEL · Report · 20 Mar 2023

1. Inflation in February surprised on the upside and remains both sticky and broad-based. 2. Most macro factors support weaker inflationary pressure going forward, except for the likelihood of further shekel weakness. 3. At this stage, we expect a 0.5% rate hike on April 3, as the BoI is li...

Saudi Arabia’s ratings improve while Kuwait’s political crisis deepens
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Mar 2023

There were some significant and potentially market-moving developments in the Gulf over the weekend and so we are putting out a quick note, rather than waiting to roll up our analysis into our weekly briefing on Friday. * Saudi Arabia received a rating upgrade from S&P and a positive outlook f...

Inflation remains sticky and broad based
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Mar 2023

Inflation surprises on the upside February’s CPI increased by 0.5% m/m compared to expectations for 0.3%. Core inflation remains stable year-on-year at 5.1%. Both housing rental (6.8% y/y) and non-housing services (5.7%) accelerated. 75.6% of all CPI items are up more than 3% y/y compared to 72.8...

Dangerous liaisons, dripping reserves
TURKEY · Report · 19 Mar 2023

With Kilicdaroglu widening his lead in the polls, and his Nation Alliance having started inching up in the parliamentary race, Turkey’s timid pro-opposition pundits are now openly voicing the threat of Erdogan stealing the election. The first essay by the politics author addresses this question, ...

Putin visits occupied Ukrainian city
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Mar 2023

On March 19 Vladimir Putin went to Mariupol as was reported by the Russian news agency TASS. This is his first visit to the port city. The city was captured in May 2022 after a bitter battle of several weeks. Russia claims the city was part of its sovereign territory. On March 18 he visited Crime...

International Criminal Court issues arrest warrant for Putin
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Mar 2023

On March 17 the ICC also issued an arrest warrant for the Russian Children's Rights Commissioner. The ICC said their arrest warrant was issued on suspicion of the mass kidnapping of Ukrainian children. Russia has boasted that it has taken thousands of Ukrainian children to Russia in order to save...

Russia evades sanctions by ordering from Kazakhstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Mar 2023

On March 17 Reuters reported that Russian companies are ordering Kazakh companies to buy forbidden items from the West on their behalf. These items are then sold to Russia. Russia is also doing this via Turkey and other former Soviet states. It seems that Turkey is now taking action to stop its c...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil tanks, Iran deal reverberates, Riyadh Air is launched, UAE surplus at 11% of GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Mar 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dropped sharply to $72, the lowest since 2021, partly due to derivatives market factors. * Gulf banks are insulated from the current crisis but Saudi and Qatar own 17% of Credit Suisse. * Moody’s sees the Saudi-Iran rap...

January BOP data slightly disappointing, no rate cut likely on March 28
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Mar 2023

Well, January BOP, published today, was not really splendid. If it had been only about the trade account, it would have been great, the annualised single-month deficit ratio falling to 1% of GDP from 2.8% in January 2022, the merchandise deficit doing reasonably well (stable in absolute terms, do...

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