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Kilicdaroglu has wind in wings
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Mar 2023 · 1 response

Your beloved Politics Author a.k.a. Atilla Yesilada is still convalescing from gastric surgery, which is the reason for his absence from our Weekly Report. Since my work hours are still quite restricted, I shall instead analyze the developments after Kilicdaroglu’s nomination briefly, inviting ou...

External fundamentals appear less shekel supportive
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Mar 2023

The goods/services surplus declined in Q422 Although the headline current surplus improved in Q422, the more important breakdown of good/services account reflect a declining surplus to 3.4bn USD in Q4 from 3.9bn in Q3. FDI into Israel surged in Q422 to 9.4bn USD compared to 6.8bn in Q3. 2023 will...

A dull and short weekly, for a change...
TURKEY · Report · 12 Mar 2023

Our politics author, who is in convalescence but doing well, plans an update on the political scene in the next 24-48 hours. In his absence -- and with elections now almost certainly set for May 14, we report the latest state of affairs in the polls, no matter how rudimentary the polls might be. ...

Georgia drops controversial legislation
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Mar 2023

On March 10 the foreign agent bill was defeated. The proposed legislation caused massive protests. It had been compared to Russian legislation that obliged those who receive foreign funding to comply with onerous registration regulations. The police had trouble containing protestors against the b...

Cabinet shuffle in Chile
CHILE · In Brief · 10 Mar 2023 · 1 response

If a week is a long time in politics, this one was endless, especially for president Gabriel Boric. On Wednesday the government’s tax reform was voted down in the House of Deputies. Although the government was quick to blame the opposition – and the opposition indeed opposed the reform as it was ...

Russian Macro: Consumer Lending Unlikely to Drive Growth in 2023
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Mar 2023

As Russia’s inflation peaked last year amid a sharp devaluation of the ruble, financial markets were shaken but not yet “stirred”. A combination of administrative measures, such as some form of capital controls combined with the key rate hike, helped the country’s financial markets to survive wit...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi-Iran ties restored, Qatar and Abu Dhabi reshuffle officials, Saudi Q4 GDP & fiscal data
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Mar 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed in China to restore diplomatic relations after a 7 years hiatus. * Saudi GDP grew by 5.5% in Q4 and 8.7% in 2022 as a whole, close to the flash estimates. * Transport, finance and business ser...

Inflation falls below 11% in February
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Mar 2023

Rosstat reported that m-o-m inflation in February was at 0.46%, and it fell to 10.99% y-o-y. At the same time, Rosstat announced that in seven days ending on March 6, inflation was 0.0%, implying that YTD inflation remained the same, namely at 1.3%. As inflation was close to zero in the past thre...

Current account surplus narrows in February but still remains strong enough
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Mar 2023

The CBR reported that the current narrowed to $5.8bn last month, while in January it was at $7.1bn. Therefore, in 2M23, it reached $12.9bn and was well below $37.7 bn in 2M22. The balance of goods and services was at $15.3 bn, implying that the income balance, i.e., the difference between the cur...

Slide presentation: Panama - Economic outlook 2023: Real and fiscal issues
PANAMA · Report · 10 Mar 2023 · 1 response

Get insight into Panama's macro outlook with the slides from Marco Fernandez's presentation, "Panama - Economic outlook 2023: Real and fiscal issues".

Lira said that the government does not have enough votes to approve bills, the opposition is still pushing for a CPI on the January 8 attacks, and the government is looking into publishing a decree on the sanitation sector
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Mar 2023

On Monday, during an event at the São Paulo Commercial Association, Lira said that the government does not have enough support to approve bills that require a simple majority. He said he is waiting for the government to organize itself. The opposition is still pushing for the installation of a Jo...

The puzzles of the exchange rate and monetary policy
INDIA · Report · 10 Mar 2023

RBI has defended an exchange rate of about 82 or 83 rupees to the dollar in recent weeks. This interest rate defence involves raising the short rate. The third outcome that RBI is managing is the long rate: in its capacity as the debt manager for the government, it has held down the long rate...

Russia’s Political/Pandemic Update: Fahrenheit 451 and a 360-Degree Turn
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Mar 2023

As the coronavirus pandemic is coming to an end, the geopolitical pandemic keeps spreading and contaminating more and more brains. Even though Russia suspended its participation in the Treaty on the Reduction of Strategic Offensive Arms (START), February was a routine month for Russian politics a...

South Africa records its first annual current account deficit since 2019
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 09 Mar 2023

Data released by the South African Reserve Bank indicates that South Africa’s current account switched from a (revised) surplus of R3.1 billion in the third quarter to a deficit of R174 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022. As a ratio of GDP, the current account thus switched to a deficit of 2.6...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 09 Mar 2023

Feb 24 KazTransOil: Kazakhstan has started transporting oil to export it to Germany Feb 25 Foreign Ministry: Kazakhstan welcomes China's position on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis and supports a peaceful solution to this problem based on the principles of the UN Charter. Feb 27 ...

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