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Today's Monetary Council meeting went (almost) exactly as expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Feb 2023

The Council did not change the base rate (13%) and the interest rate corridor(12.5-25%) today, and it specifically said that the O/N deposit rate (18%) also remains unchanged, and  it will remain so for a while in the future as well. The Council made decisions on two issues: 1. The Bank will cont...

My way or the highway
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Feb 2023 · 1 response

Mainstream indicators reveal a pessimistic sentiment: the COP exchange rate, migration data, capital flight, consumer sentiment and surveys about the state of the nation under President Gustavo Petro all indicate a souring of outlook. Colombians are visibly moving either their assets or their bod...

Consumption leads growth yet another quarter
TURKEY · Report · 28 Feb 2023

GDP rose by 3.5%, y/y, in 2022Q4, higher than the consensus forecast of under 3% expansion (but broadly in line with ours), as sequential growth picked up to just under 1%, from an almost flat reading in the previous quarter (Graph 1). For the year as a whole, GDP grew by a faster than expecte...

Lula has a meeting to discuss the return of federal taxes on fuel, the working group on Tax Reform should meet to discuss the work plan, and the terms of two Central Bank directors come to an end today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Feb 2023

President Lula meets with Chief of Staff Rui Costa, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, Minister of Mines and Energy Alexandre Silveira, and the president of Petrobras, Jean Paul Prates. The new formula will result in a progressive recharging of federal taxes on fuels. The working group created to ...

The rise of Eastern Indonesia
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Feb 2023

The Indonesian economy posted an encouraging result for Q4 2022 with growth of 5.01%, although this was significantly lower than the 5.72% rate achieved in the previous quarter. GDP for full-year 2022 grew by 5.31%, at the bottom of the predicted range of growth. Compared to the previous quart...

Treat recovery data with caution
CHINA · Report · 28 Feb 2023

Because of Chinese New Year, the statistics bureau didn’t announce price, financial and PMI data until February. China switched from zero-COVID lockdown to almost no restrictions in December 2022, and by January 2023, normal life had nearly returned. The economy is generally improving, but cautio...

Politics: Stage set for final showdowns over electoral arbiter and rules for the 2024 elections
MEXICO · Report · 27 Feb 2023

With showdowns looming in the extended fight over which rules and what sort of arbiter will preside over the 2024 elections, all sides are stepping up their efforts. Opposition parties, civil society organizations and others are increasingly allied in challenging many of the laws passed recently ...

Economics: Revised presidential decree on glyphosate and GM corn imports sets the stage for new trade disputes and crop challenges
MEXICO · Report · 27 Feb 2023

The week before last, President López Obrador and five of his cabinet ministers published a decree for the purpose of gradually eliminating the use of the agrochemical herbicide glyphosate, prohibiting the planting of genetically modified (GM) corn and restricting its use in various productive pr...

Two months of the Lula government and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Feb 2023

The House and Senate resume negotiations for the determination of the presidents of the Permanent Committees of the two houses. The Tax Reform Working Group defines its work plan. On Tuesday, February 28, the mandates of two directors of the Central Bank end. On Thursday, March 2, the IBGE publis...

The Cost of Reducing Inflation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Feb 2023

It is becoming increasingly clear that the process of reducing inflation in the world will be long and costly, with risks of recession in the United States and Brazil. In the USA, the latest data indicate that the 12-month rate of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) has starte...

Distrust
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Feb 2023

The threat of hyperinflation redux brings to light just how precarious is the government’s macro stabilization model. Forced to speed up Venezuela’s forex burn rate to contain bolivar weakening and faced with salary demands that can’t be met and the rising costs of ubiquitous corruption, especial...

Kazakhstan macro: strong inflow of tax revenues in the republican budget hints the economy is in good shape
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 Feb 2023

According to the Bureau of National Statistics the short-term indicator that takes into account economic activity in six main sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transport, trade, and communications) grew by 5.0% y-o-y in January. These sectors represent around 60% of GDP. At the same t...

Lula will have a meeting to discuss the return of federal taxes on gasoline and alcohol, tomorrow he is expected to make changes to the Bolsa Família program, and Congress should select the heads of the permanent committees
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Feb 2023

At 10 a.m. today, President Lula will meet with Chief of Staff Rui Costa, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad and the President of Petrobras, Jean Paul Prates. The topic of the meeting is the return of federal taxes on gasoline and alcohol. On Tuesday, February 28, President Lula (PT) is expected t...

A Jamaican miracle
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 27 Feb 2023

A little over two weeks ago, on Friday, February 10, the editor of the Financial Times (FT) Alphaville blog, Robin Wigglesworth, describing Jamaica’s economic turnaround, said “This is as close to a miracle as you are ever likely to see.” His comments were based on the press release on the IMF...

Monetary Council tomorrow, Moody's rating review on Friday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Feb 2023

The Monetary Council is set to hold its regular monthly rate-setting meeting tomorrow (February 28). There is once again broad analyst consensus, which we share, that no interest rate move is likely on this occasion. Although analysts seem to believe that CPI-inflation peaked in January, there wo...

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