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New York Times says US estimates Russia has suffered 200 K casualties
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Feb 2023

On February 2 the newspaper said the estimate comes from confidential US government sources and is backed by other Western governments. It includes killed, wounded and captured. The estimate comes from satellite images, listening in on communications, social media posts and Russia media. NYT said...

Russian macro: credit market getting back to normal
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Feb 2023

Even though banks were among the first targets of the Western sanctions that bombarded the Russian economy last year, the country’s banking sector reported profits in 2022 as a whole, as 2H22 profits overshadowed 1H22 losses. As geopolitical changes forced the domestic economic environment to cha...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi growth leads G20, Kuwait budgets a huge deficit, Bahrain-Qatar flights may resume
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Feb 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * As expected, OPEC+ left quotas unchanged through April, but oil dipped on US stock building. * Qatar and Kuwait were the only Gulf states that did not mirror the Fed’s +25bp hike. * Saudi Arabia’s 8.7% growth in 2022 was ...

Ouch!
TURKEY · Report · 03 Feb 2023

Consumer prices rose by 6.65%, m/m, in January, significantly higher than the consensus forecast of around 3.8%, and even more so than ours. Our forecast error, which, admittedly, is the largest as far back as we remember it, stems mainly from a substantial underestimation of food inflation (part...

Lula once again criticized the Central Bank, former President Bolsonaro had a difficult start to the year, and Lula is scheduled to meet with President Joe Biden next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Feb 2023

Lula said that he will wait for Roberto Campos Neto's term to end before assessing what an independent Central Bank means. He also said that Brazil does not need such a low inflation target. Former President Jair Bolsonaro did not start the year well. The candidate he supported lost the Senate el...

Inflation in Kazakhstan moderates in January but still remains high
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 03 Feb 2023

Inflation m-o-m decelerated to 1.1% in January and was down from 1.2% in December, 1.4% in November, 1.6% in October, and 1.8% in September. Even though the m-o-m deceleration of inflation looks steady, it reached 20.7% y-o-y in January. Food price inflation reached 25.7% y-o-y, and in the non-fo...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Feb 2023

Generous budgetary spending helped to increase banks’ net liquidity position with CBR, which surpassed R3 trln - for the first time since September 2022. Excessive liquidity caused inflation to accelerate and pushed money market rates well below CBR key rate. This situation is likely to remain in...

Lira and Pacheco were re-elected, the parties will now focus on the permanent committees of Congress, and the STF resumes adjudication of limiting sentences in tax cases
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Feb 2023

Lira received 464 votes and Pacheco, 49. Lira did not have a strong opponent and received the most votes of any candidate in the history of the House. In the Senate, Pacheco won, but the opposition and supporters of President Jair Bolsonaro had 32 votes, which is enough to create a Parliamentary ...

Industrial output marginally contracts in 2022 setting up a basis for moderate growth this year
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Feb 2023

Rosstat reported that industrial output contracted in 2022 by 0.6%. In December alone, it fell by 4.3% y-o-y, while it grew by 0.1% m-o-m in seasonally adjusted terms. Mining was up by 0.8%, and manufacturing contracted in 2022 (1.3%). The performance was uneven across sectors as the Russian econ...

Essential CIS Politics: February 2023
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 01 Feb 2023

* Germany, the US and others donated tanks to Ukraine. * Russia won the Battle of Soledar at great cost. * There is a tense standoff between Armenia and Azerbaijan. * The Turkmen president made a state visit to China. * Russian military drills in Belarus have ...

Uncertainty persists in the stalled contract negotiations regarding the copper mine, and the US State Department might redraw the political map
PANAMA · Report · 01 Feb 2023

The contract negotiations between the government and First Quantum, the owner of Minera Panamá, are still not progressing. The main pending disagreements are royalties and depletion deductions, the scope of the easement, the procedure by the state in the event of the administrative termination of...

A bit of progress, well short of sufficient, reached at rule-of-law talks with the EU
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Feb 2023

The good news is that talks on how to restore Hungary's access to new EU development funds apparently continue. Another piece of good news is that Hungary is reported to have made concessions, slowly moving towards meeting the requirements set by the EU in December. The bad news, for those who wo...

Dominican Government issues new securities in local and foreign currency and concludes repurchase of bonds in DOP maturing in 2023.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Feb 2023

The Dominican Government reported that it issued USD$1.8 b in local and foreign currency, with the purpose of repurchasing the international bond indexed in DOP maturing in 2023 and partially financing the 2023 Public Budget. The issuance in foreign currency amounts to USD700 m, with a coupon of ...

The House and Senate will elect their respective presidents, the STF resumes activity today, and the Central Bank announces the basic interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Feb 2023

The elections for the House and Senate presidencies will take place today. Arthur Lira (PP-AL) will easily be re-elected in the House. In the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) is the favorite, although his main opponent, Rogério Marinho (PL-RN), has been gaining support. The Senate election is exp...

International Olympic Committee is restricting Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Feb 2023

On February the International Olympic Committee (IOC) rejected Russia's suggestions that Russian and Belarusian athletes should be allowed to compete under their own flags. This relates to the Paris 2024 Olympics. Russia said politics should not interfere with sport. In December 2022 the ICO unan...

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