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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank May 19 -
Brazil Economics databank May 19
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank May 21
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 16
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Hungary databank May 20
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA: FISCAL PRESSURES AND POLITICAL SHIFTS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Belarus carries out combat readiness inspections
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Dec 2022
On December 13 Belarus announced the move. Ukraine is keeping an eye on the situation. It could be that Belarus is worrying Ukraine in order to oblige Ukrainians to guard their northern frontier and thereby take the pressure off the Russians in the east. Belarus did this earlier in 2022. Civilian...
The Transition PEC may be put to a vote in the House this week, the STF will resume the trial on the cases that question the constitutionality of the rapporteur’s amendments today, and Lula announced new members of his future government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Dec 2022
The president of the House, Arthur Lira, and the rapporteur of the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC), Elmar Nascimento (União Brasil-BA), have signaled that the proposal may be put to a vote this Wednesday or Thursday. The biggest concern is about changes in the text. If the Hous...
2023 Forecast: Growth and Disinflation will Sputter
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 14 Dec 2022
Please note that we have changed the final sentence of the sixth paragraph of our section “License 41 in a nut shell” and we have also changed the final sentence before Table 2 in the “2023 Forecast” section. Compared with the last seven years, during which economic contraction was strong and...
A closer look at the Maharlika fund
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 14 Dec 2022
Last Friday, after over a week of intense public debate about the rationale and sources of funds of a congressional initiative to set up a sovereign wealth fund, Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno stepped up to own the proposal. In a press briefing, he read a statement signed by the core members o...
Turkey resolves Russian tanker dispute
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Dec 2022
On December 13 Turkey said that the Western oil price cap will no longer prevent tankers sailing through the Turkish waters from the Black Sea to the Aegean. 20 tankers were anchored in the Black Sea as Turkey said they could not come through until they proved that they had insurance. Turkey is w...
The Kazakh economy was stable in November
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Dec 2022
The country’s Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 11M22, the monthly short-term indicator (a proxy for overall economic activity) was up by 3.2% y-o-y, which was slightly better than in 10M22 (3.1%). The industry was up by 1.4% y-o-y over the same cumulative period. Such sectors as con...
The Russian budget is still in surplus in 11M22 as massive spending is due in December
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Dec 2022
The Finance Ministry reported that the federal budgetary spending was moderate in November (R2.2 trillion) and was on par with volumes seen in the previous months. In 11M22, the government spent R24.2 trillion, while the amended 2022 budget assumed expenditures of around R29.0 trillion. Even thou...
Lula and Alckmin were confirmed by the TSE yesterday, the Transition PEC may be approved in the House this week, and the STF will resume the trial on the cases that question the constitutionality of the rapporteur’s amendments tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Dec 2022
President Lula was confirmed yesterday by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). There were some protests in Brasilia with buses and cars set on fire. As we had warned, some events could occur, but there is no risk of them becoming something more serious or consistent. The PEC has a chance of being ...
Cosmic forecasts from the dark side
TURKEY · Report · 13 Dec 2022
For the last piece of the outgoing year, the third leg of the GSP Turkey team, Cosmic Strategist steps in for the Politics Author, who is currently –allegedly-- driving a ‘78 Dodge Aspen somewhere on Route 66 “to reconnect with his past”. Cosmo is an extremely revolutionary and controversial t...
Deal has been reached on EU funds, at last
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Dec 2022
Pretty much in the last minute before the EU Summit of December 15, EU member states managed to agree last night on a compromise package of measures with Hungary. As part of this: - Hungary agreed to step back from its intended veto on a common borrowing action to back EU financial assistance to ...
Chile's Constitutional Process 2.0
CHILE · In Brief · 12 Dec 2022
After three months of negotiation, the parties in Congress have agreed on the basic outline of a new process to draft – once again – a constitutional proposal. The details still need to be hammered out, especially among senators, but the general agreement consists of a Committee of Experts who wi...
Politics: AMLO’s approval undented by rising discontent with key policies
MEXICO · Report · 12 Dec 2022
People remain highly critical of many areas of government policy and yet continue to approve of the job President López Obrador is doing, according to GEA-ISA’s most recent quarterly survey of registered voters. The extent to which job growth has proven surprisingly robust goes a long way to expl...
Russian macro: adapting to regular shocks – Russia’s new reality
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Dec 2022
The Russian economy once again proved that it is quite resilient to shocks as the GDP contraction this year appears less significant than the broad consensus expected right after the start of the special military operation. The country’s authorities recently mentioned that GDP could contract by 2...
Projections for 2023
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 12 Dec 2022
Before presenting the projections for 2023 (there’s no way to estimate numbers for 2024 with any security), we express two caveats. First, the GDP gap is still significantly positive (with the unemployment rate below the NAIRU), and this might require keeping the SELIC rate at 13.75% throughout 2...
Economics: Despite the multi-year fall in construction activity, a new footing is unlikely in the near term
MEXICO · Report · 12 Dec 2022
GDP results for the third quarter came in stronger than analysts had anticipated largely owing to a considerable expansion of services and an extension of manufacturing’s positive trend as some of the highest-value-added branches posted improved numbers. However, the construction industry remains...