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US and Russian defense chiefs speak by phone
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Oct 2022

On October 21 Lloyd Austin and Sergei Shoigu spoke about the Ukraine War. Russia confirmed this on the government Telegram channel. Washington DC and Moscow have had the hotline since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. The US suggested keeping this hotline active in the Ukraine War in case somethi...

Line in the sand for the peso
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Oct 2022

We are not alone in scratching our heads over why Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno, The Banker’s “Global Central Banker of the Year 2022,” said what he said. Briefly, Bloomberg[1] reported Secretary Diokno saying: (a) government is trying to prevent the peso from breaching P60/$; (b) it is prepa...

EU sanctions Iran for arming Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Oct 2022

On October 21 the EU sanctioned three generals and an arms company accused of selling drones to Russia. Shahed Aviation Industries is the company. All EU countries agreed onto the sanctions. Ukraine claims to have shot down many Iranian drones. Iran denies supplying drones to Russia. Russia says ...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi issues bonds, Kuwait forms a new government, ADQ takes on Etihad
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Oct 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi Arabia issued $5bn in bonds/sukuk and tendered to buy back $1bn maturing in the next four years. * A Saudi PR campaign insisted the OPEC+ cuts were non-political and that it is not siding with Russia. * Moody’s cred...

The Minister of Economy discusses changes to the minimum wage, TSE Minister Maria Cláudia Bucchianeri suspends the Court decision regarding Lula’s right to reply to Bolsonaro’s campaign accusations, and Bolsonaro will be interviewed tonight
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Oct 2022

President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) said Economy Minister Paulo Guedes announced there will be an increase in the minimum wage and the salaries of civil servants in 2023. A supporter of Lula, Federal Deputy André Janones, said that the government would reduce the increase in the value of the minimum wa...

The 2023-2025 rolling budget gets shaped
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 21 Oct 2022

The Deputy Finance Minister Mr. Birzhanov, presented in Kazakhstan’s Parliament the 2023 republican budget, along with its projections for 2024-2025. Revenues should reach KZT18.8 trillion in 2023, i.e., over KZT2.0 trillion above revenue expected in 2022. These revenues include the so-called gua...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 20 Oct 2022

The oil price remains volatile. In early October, it moved up as OPEC+ decided to cut production, then it slid on the back of general fears of potential economic recession. The US decision to sell 15 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve also influenced the market. The Russi...

The NBU keeps prime rate unchanged at 25%, slightly improves macro-forecast
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Oct 2022

The NBU Board meeting did not bring any surprises today. The prime rate was left unchanged at 25% and the NBU even stated that further increase of prime rate is possible if needed. At the same time the NBU this time was more optimistic on Ukraine macroeconomic prospects improving GDP slightly est...

The MNB base rate ceased to be the main sterilisation rate today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 20 Oct 2022

It has been an open question since the announcement of the current 18% O/N deposit rate on October 14, how exactly the MNB would sort out the the conflict between this new instrument and the 1-week deposit facility, so far the main sterilisation instrument used by the Bank, on which the 13% base ...

Polls continue to show a decrease in the distance between Lula and Bolsonaro, and the STF approved Lula’s coalition request for city halls to provide free transportation on election day
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Oct 2022 · 1 response

The Quaest/Genial poll previously showed a distance of eight points. Now it is five. Datafolha was showing a distance of 5. Now it is four – just above the margin of error. The Supreme Federal Court (STF) decided to authorize city halls and bus companies to offer free public transportation for th...

In a hurry to please the boss
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Oct 2022

The CBRT/MPC cut the policy rate (one-week repo) by another 150 bps to 10.5% (simple) today, versus the consensus view of a 100 bps cut. That the cut is deeper should not be all that surprising, however. Since President Erdogan called for lower rates and indicated a single digit rate as the objec...

Gas hub in Turkey
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Oct 2022

On October 19 Turkey announced that it shall create a gas hub with Russia in Turkey. This was reported by a Russian state news agency. President Erdogan said that the EU can obtain Russian gas from a Turkish hub as long as supplies to the EU are disrupted due to the Ukraine Conflict and broken Ba...

Kazakhstan macro: Growth remains moderate as the economic climate is affected by shocks
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 19 Oct 2022

Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator that aggregates activities in industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transport, and communications was up in 9M22 by 3.5% y-o-y. In 8M22, it grew by 3.7% y-o-y, therefore, pointing to some deceleration in Septe...

Putin declares complete martial law in occupied Ukraine, limited version in Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Oct 2022

On October 19 the president made the announcement. Some war hawks had been agitating for this move for months. Martial law means curfews, military censorship, travel restrictions and residency restrictions. This does not suggest that the war is going well 8 months into the conflict. The Federal C...

Weekly inflation is moderate, inflation y-o-y likely to fall by 100 bps in October
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 Oct 2022

Rosstat reported that in seven days ending on October 10, inflation was at 0.03% w-o-w. Inflation MTD reached 0.06%, and the YTD inflation moved to 10.53% on that date. Despite high uncertainty and the tense geopolitical situation, there are no signs that inflation may accelerate significantly. I...

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