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When governments talk, markets react
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 19 Oct 2022 · 1 response

At the beginning of 2022, Colombian Treasury Bills (TES - for its acronym in Spanish) outstanding were close to COP 400 trillion (tn); currently, they are reaching almost COP 450 tn. Hence, the government has issued TES handsomely, continuing a high-sloping trend exhibited since COVID hit the eco...

The latest polls still show a decrease in the distance between Lula and Bolsonaro, Lula will publish a letter to evangelicals today, and the urgent status request in the House for Bill 96/11 on polling institutes is approved
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Oct 2022

According to the poll published recently by PoderData, former President Lula has 48% of intended votes, and President Jair Bolsonaro has 44%, while 5% of voters intend to vote blank or null, and 3% do not know. Today, at 10 a.m., Lula will publish a “Letter to Evangelicals” during an event in São...

Russians angry at draftees' being sent to battle without training or equipment
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Oct 2022

Soldiers have been killed within 10 days of being mobilized. Families have complained that their loved ones have been sent to the front without any refresher training. Most Russian men do a year of army training at the age of 18. Draftees are supposed to be given a 2 week course to bring back the...

Iran to sell more weapons to Russia: Western reports
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Oct 2022

On October 17 the Washington Post said that anonymous NATO intelligence sources have said that Iran is boosting arms sales to Russia. Deliveries include two kinds of surface-to-surface missiles and attack drones. Iran has been selling arms to Russia since August 2022. The short-range ballistic mi...

The latest polls show a decrease in the distance between Lula and Bolsonaro, the government issued early payments of the Truck Driver Aid and Taxi Driver Aid, and Lula will be interviewed on a podcast tonight and Bolsonaro holds rallies
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Oct 2022

Two polls on the presidential election were published yesterday, showing a reduction in the distance between Lula and Bolsonaro in the runoff round. The government continues in its effort to produce positive news. The Caixa Econômica Federal issued early payments of the Truck Driver Aid and Taxi ...

Three lost years and still lost
CHILE · In Brief · 18 Oct 2022

Today marks the third anniversary of Chile’s social explosion. Much has happened since and because of the October uprising: the rise of inflation, a failed constitutional process, the election of Gabriel Boric. Sadly, the demands that the protests brought to the fore are far from being addressed,...

Castillo’s last dance; real GDP slows to 1.5% in H2; BCRP projected to end hiking cycle at 7.5%
PERU · Report · 18 Oct 2022 · 1 response

In this report, we focus on three key topics. First, we discuss the implications for President Pedro Castillo of the decision by the Ministerio Público Fiscalía de la Nación to submit to Congress a constitutional complaint against Castillo for “leading a criminal organization.” Second, we argue t...

Saudi Arabia: Bond issuance and buyback
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 18 Oct 2022

Today the Kingdom announced plans to issue a 6-year sukuk and a 10-year bond, its first dollar issuances in nearly a year, targeting about $3.5-4bn, as well as buying back bonds that mature over the next four years. The buyback tender was announced for the four Eurobonds that mature in 2023-6, wh...

Economics: Mexico benefitting from nearshoring trend but must take action to sustain FDI inflows long term
MEXICO · Report · 18 Oct 2022

Federal officials have been boasting of the very high Foreign Direct Investment results for the first half of 2022. In contrast to gross fixed capital formation, which as of July was running 10% below 2018 levels, through the first half of 2022 FDI inflows were there highest since 2013. While ...

Standard & Poor's issues positive annual Jamaica report as Bank of Jamaica continues to tighten local monetary policy
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 17 Oct 2022

On October 5, rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) issued its annual report on the Jamaican economy. In summary, the agency expects the country's economic recovery to continue, supported particularly by tourism. It expects Jamaica to continue to run a small fiscal surplus in the current fiscal y...

Declining World Growth and The Reflections in Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Oct 2022

More important than the magnitude of the decline in the IMF’s new projections for global growth in 2023 is the warning, loud and clear, that “although many countries may not be in a recession, they will feel as if they were in recession”. Not since the crisis of 2008 has there been such generaliz...

Politics: Revelations by hackers and a new book provide a thorough look at organized crime and alleged government corruption
MEXICO · Report · 17 Oct 2022

In the past two weeks, President López Obrador’s critics were handed two unforeseen sources of information with which to bolster their case against the current administration. The first consists of many thousands of documents and emails from and regarding the Armed Forces made public by hackers w...

Evaluation of the first debate of the runoff round and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Oct 2022

This is the penultimate week of the electoral campaign before the runoff round, on October 30. Candidates for president and governor are intensifying their campaigns. Several presidential and state polls have been scheduled. This week’s Talking Points: * Party movements. * The ...

Abel Martínez won the PLD consultation to elect his pre-presidential candidate for 2024
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 17 Oct 2022

Abel Martinez won comfortably with 60.9% of the votes, followed by Francisco Dominguez Brito with 20.8% and Margarita Cedeño with 16.2%. Martinez is the current mayor of Santiago, the second largest city in the country. He was elected for the first time for the 2016-2020 period and re-elected for...

September’s CPI comes in slightly above expectations
ISRAEL · Report · 17 Oct 2022

1. Despite the upward inflation surprise in September, core inflation remained stable at 4.7% y/y. 2. We expect inflation to accelerate y/y in Q422, in part due to the cancellation of the excise tax reduction on petrol. 3. We expect a rate hike of 0.5% on November 21, and further tightening to ...

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