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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank May 13 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 9
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
No agreement on Tax Reform, CPI hears Mayra Pinheiro and privatization of Eletrobras analyzed in the Senate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 May 2021
The report on Administrative Reform should be voted on this week. An agreement on the form and scope of Tax Reform has not yet been reached. The COVID CPI in the Senate only has one testimony scheduled this week, but should meet on Wednesday to schedule a possible second testimony on Thursday.
With a ceasefire in place, markets will focus on internal politics
ISRAEL · Report · 24 May 2021
Following the cessation of hostilities, the economy is expected to expand rapidly, but internal political uncertainty remains. A closer look at Q121 GDP numbers reveals strong export growth, as well as investments in equipment and private consumption (excluding new vehicles). Recent indicators po...
Belarus forces airliner to land
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 May 2021
On May 23 Belarus obliged a Ryanair air flight in Belarussian airpsace to land at Minsk. The flight was due to land in Lithuania. Belarus claimed there was a bomb on the plane to make the pilot land. There are allegations that Belarussian intelligence officers on the plane even started a fight as...
With a ceasefire in place, markets will focus on internal politics
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 May 2021
Geopolitics: Following 11 days of confrontation, a ceasefire was declared Friday morning which appears to be holding.The actual cost of this operation is not expected to be significant, but it will strengthen the position of the Ministry of Defense and its demand for a significant increase in the...
Three Weeks of the Condor
TURKEY · Report · 23 May 2021
Domestic politics has deteriorated into a farce, as a Mafia leader takes on the Interior Minister with Erdogan’s silent consent. We generate several scenarios about Erdogan’s silence and the endgame in this docu-drama. A new deal for up to 90 million does of BioNTech vaccines could end Turkey’s e...
Russia raises USD 1.8 billion in debt placement
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 May 2021 · 1 response
On May 20 the first debt placement took place since the US banned its banks from buying Russian Government debt. Foreigners bought 47% of the Eurobonds (i.e. debt denominated in EUR). The government debt coupons were sold by the Finance Ministry. EU banks bought much of the debt.The US Secretary ...
Canadian company tries to defend assets in Kyrgyzstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 May 2021
On May 17 Centerra Gold launched an arbitration action at the Arbitration Insitute in Stockholm. Kutmor, which is a gold mine in Kyrgyzstan, is being sequestrated. The process is to be completed in August.Kutmor is the only project in the country run under a concession. The mine is Centerra's mos...
Reopening is underway, the MNB is starting to tighten
HUNGARY · Report · 21 May 2021
The third wave of Covid, by far the most severe of all so far, has clearly been overcome. Given the relatively soft lockdown rules in force until most recently, aggressive domestic vaccination must have played a key role in this success. However, the epidemic is still far from finally being ov...
The South African Reserve Bank keeps interest rates unchanged despite mounting inflationary pressures
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 May 2021
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has once again announced that it is keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged following this week’s conclusion of its Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) third meeting of the year. The repo rate remains at 3.5% and the prime lending rate at 7%. The decision...
CPI considers further action against testifiers, Bolsonaro compliments Salles, and Administrative Reform proposal should be voted on next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 May 2021
Pazuello performs well in the COVID CPI in the Senate, and senators consider taking action against the Committee’s testifiers. The Eletrobras privatization was approved in the House and should be sent to the Senate for analysis. The Administrative Reform proposal is expected to be approved and wi...
GULF WEEKLY: US-Iran deal imminent, Covid surges in Bahrain, Oman’s EDO to raise $5bn
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 May 2021
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * We now see the chances of a US-Iran deal by May 28 as close to 50%, and 80% by July. * Bahrain’s Covid cases continued to rise sharply despite its rapid vaccine rollout. * Vaccinated Saudis were permitted to travel, incl...
Major Russian supermarkets amalgamating
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 May 2021
On May 19 it was announced that the chains are uniting. Magnit is buying the discount stroe Dixy for USD 1.25 billion. Mon May 20 Lenta announced it will buy the Billa stores for USD 263 million. Magnit is Russia's main supermarket brand.The Russian supermarket sector was fragmented. That is now ...
Legislative Commissions Finally Conformed
ECUADOR · In Brief · 20 May 2021
After two days of lack of consensus, the new majority formed by Creo-Independents, Pachakutik and Izquierda Democratica finally achieved the exact 70 necessary votes to conform the 15 specialized legislative commissions. However, presidents of these commissions that have nine members, were not ap...
US worried over Russian Military in Arctic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 May 2021
On May 20 the Arctic Council met. The US expressed its dismay at Russian Military drills in the Arctic. Most members of the Arctic Council backed Washington. The US says the organization should emphasize ecology, safety at sea and the welfare of the autochthonous people.Russia wants to control th...
There are no conditions to implement a tax reform in 2021.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 20 May 2021 · 2 responses
In a long interview to review the first 9 months of his administration, President Luis Abinader indicated that there are no conditions for a tax reform in 2021 and that it is necessary to reach an agreement to see when is the best time to implement said reform. He said that the social forces of t...