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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

China Virus Check – Week August 10
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 11 Aug 2020

Our latest data for economic activity shows a continued split between heavy industry and other sectors. Steel, iron ore and property construction remains vibrant, generally higher YoY. Meanwhile, auto sales, cinema attendance and other measures are weak. This reaffirms China is undergoing a produ...

Belarus protests lead to one death
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Aug 2020

On August 9 and 10 illegal protests took place on the streets of Minsk. The protesters did not accept the outcome of the presidential election. The police were trying to suppress the demonstrations. Protests turned into riots with people stoning the police. Some built makeshift barricades.Over 3 ...

South Africa’s economy is ravaged by the Covid-19 pandemic, but activity is seeing recovery following the early Q2 slump
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 10 Aug 2020

• South African households: In line with the rest of the economy, South African consumers are under immense pressure on account of years of insipid growth, and as such, domestic demand has been impacted negatively. The expected slump in GNI due to the pandemic, together with the negative impact o...

After 100,000 deaths, pressure on the government grows
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Aug 2020

​During the inauguration of a COVID-19 test processing unit at the Oswald Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz), in Rio de Janeiro, the interim Minister of Health, General Eduardo Pazuello, said that the government now supports social isolation.

Political climate deteriorates and recession worsens despite the agreement with foreign bondholders
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 10 Aug 2020

The successful restructuring of the government debt has reduced the risk of a disorderly default during Alberto Fernández’s presidency. But in all other respects, the political climate and economic prospects have deteriorated since our May 18th forecast. By mid-May it seemed that the governme...

Economics: Pemex results deliver more bad news
MEXICO · Report · 10 Aug 2020

The current government continues to channel just enough relief to keep Pemex on life support, but never enough to get it squarely back on its feet. Neither has it adopted a strategy that could allow a diverse sector to both flourish and meet the country’s energy needs. The gravity of the compa...

Politics: State of security in the wake of El Marro
MEXICO · Report · 10 Aug 2020

Until recent years, the state of Guanajuato didn’t feature in discussions of organized crime. But all that has changed since a petty drug dealer, car thief and extortionist in the tiny town of Santa Rosa de Lima rode the burgeoning huachicol racket of stealing and distributing gasoline from Pemex...

Brazilian Politics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Aug 2020

Leaders in the House and Senate will test a voting system for presidential vetoes. Vetoes on payroll tax exemptions and sanitation will not be analyzed. The Joint Tax Reform Committee will meet again. The House may vote urgency requests for the bills on the FX market and the new bankruptcy law...

The Pulse of Economic Activity
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Aug 2020

With some data on the first quarter now known, such as industrial output, along with some information on the carry over to the third quarter and the year as a whole, it is clear that the contraction of GDP this year will be less than the 7.5% projected previously. If we assume the possibility tha...

Fiscal deficit likely to reach 10% GDP, below expectations
ISRAEL · Report · 10 Aug 2020

Uncertainty is high regarding budget approval: whether to approve the 2020 and 2021 budget separately (as Netanyahu wants) or jointly in one framework (as stipulated by the coalition agreement. This disagreement, if it is not settled by August 25th (the deadline for the 2020 budget approval), wil...

President of Belarus claims election victory
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Aug 2020

On August 9 President Lukashenka announced that he had won re-election with 80%. Three other candidates stood against him. Luakshenka took the precaution banning well known opponents and arresting thousands of demonstrators. The opposition candidates said the result was fraudulent. Some have call...

​Lira volatility: what’s next?
TURKEY · Report · 09 Aug 2020 · 2 responses

As we start what is likely to be another reasonably turbulent week, in a series of probably many more to come, we provide a quick update on our thoughts, as of Sunday evening, Turkish time.

Highest ever fiscal deficit measured in January-July
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Aug 2020

The central government's cash deficit reached HUF 328bn in July, making the first seven months' cumulative deficit as high as HUF 2165bn or 8.1% of GDP. The local press was hasting to point out that this was the highest ever January-July deficit recorded in this category, and it is true. It is al...

Fiscal deficit likely to reach 10% GDP, below expectations
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Aug 2020

Highlights of the Weekly Israeli Macro Wrap Up 10.8.20: Uncertainty is high regarding budget approval: whether to approve the 2020 and 2021 budget separately (as Netanyahu wants) or jointly in one framework (as stipulated by the coalition agreement. This disagreement, if it is not settled by Augu...

US seeks to sequester Ukrainian oligarch's property
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Aug 2020

On August 7 the Justice Department issued a civil forfeiture complaint against realty belonging to Ihor Kolomoisky. The aim is to confiscate his real estate without compensation. Kolomoisky owns property in Texas and Kentucky through a company of his. The civil complaint claims that Kolomoisky an...

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