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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: AMLO increasing polarization
MEXICO · Report · 15 Jun 2020

The political environment continues to deteriorate as the government’s coronavirus “strategy” has failed to stem the pandemic in Mexico, and its economic policies have been equally unsuccessful in mitigating the effects of a deepening recession. But one thing everyone can be certain of is that th...

South Africa’s policy challenges continue: the mining sector and a new strategy for state-owned enterprises
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 15 Jun 2020 · 1 response

The mining sector made up 9% of the South African economy during Q4 2019 and 2.6% of the country’s employment share of the economy during the same period. Despite making a relatively smaller share of the economy compared to sectors such as finance, which makes up 20% of the economy (Q4 2019), or ...

Economics: Labor market data outlook
MEXICO · Report · 15 Jun 2020

The Covid-19 pandemic has taken a terrible toll not only on employment but also in the means to precisely record it. The most comprehensive source of information on the Mexican labor market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment (ENOE), a nationwide face-to-face poll conducted monthl...

Welcome to a scorching hot summer
TURKEY · Report · 14 Jun 2020

Rising daily corona cases even dismayed the Hero of the Day, Health Minister Dr. Fahrettin Koca, as easing the last of COVID-19 restrictions by end-June appears very likely to invite a second wave. In US-Turkey relations, there is a tiny bit of a trouble, called Mr. Metin Topuz, but both sides...

External fundamentals continue to support a strong shekel
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Jun 2020

Highlights of macro weekly wrap up :The current account surplus reached 3.8bn USD in Q120 following 3.5bn in Q419 and 3.1bn in Q119. The service account surplus increased by 0.6bn and the trade deficit declined by 0.6bn on initial gas exports and weak imports. The net FDI increase to 2.9bn from 2...

Polls show 48% disapprove of the government; 28% approve
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Jun 2020

Two polls released in the last 48 hours – DataPoder360 and XP/Ipespe – show a similar scenario regarding the popularity of the Jair Bolsonaro government. In the DataPoder360 poll, the government´s negative (bad/very bad) rating reached 47%. On the other hand, the positive evaluation (great/goo...

​GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ extends, Saudi COVID resurgence, Oman bailout talks
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Jun 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * OPEC+ extends cuts for a month, and laggards promise compensation. * Saudi faces a second coronavirus wave, but it hasn’t clearly emerged elsewhere yet. * Fitch increased...

Outlook for 2020 inflation depends on epidemic
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Jun 2020

Consumer price inflation sped up slightly to 53 percent month on month in May from 50 percent in April. Year-on-year inflation accelerated to 5,200 percent. May inflation was driven by a spike in dollar prices in April (+104 percent) that was felt with a lag in May, the rise in black market ga...

The failure of China’s SME program
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Jun 2020

The success of China’s stimulus measures will depend on the ability of the financial system to deliver capital to the most profitable – and highest employing – sectors. Is China successful in this? The anecdotal information suggests that loans to small businesses don’t always reach the best custo...

Bracing for the Worst Downturn in History
COLOMBIA · Report · 12 Jun 2020

President Iván Duque’s early public health actions, among them a nationwide lockdown in March, were hailed as timely. These have been gradually eased since mid-April, and everyone hopes the health system can cope. Otherwise, Colombians might be returned to confinement. We’re all but certain that ...

The IMF Memorandum has nominally light conditions for next review… but pitfalls
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Jun 2020

At the released IMF memorandum, we do not see heavy conditionality which have been discussed in media over the recent weeks. For the first review (to be finished by September 1st) only two light steps should be completed. They include approval of NPL reduction plan for the state-owned banks and f...

US to give USD 250 million military aid to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jun 2020

On June 12 the United States announced a military aid package to Ukraine worth USD 250 million. This will include equipment, training and advice. The explicit purpose is to oppose 'Russian aggression'. The aid package was contingent on reform of the Ukraine Military. Anti-corruption and civilian ...

Russian bank and IT company trying to split
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jun 2020

Sberbank and Yandex are trying to divorce. The bank announced on June 9 that it will buy 72% of the maps service 2GIS. 2GIS is a rival to Yandex,Maps.Mapping is not very lucrative. Sberbank wants to use 2GIS to upgrade navigation for its Delivery Club. The Delivery Club competes with Yandex.Food....

Argentina webinar featuring Esteban Medrano - A debt restructuring during the pandemic
ARGENTINA · Report · 11 Jun 2020

Argentina webinar featuring Esteban Medrano - A debt restructuring during the pandemic. Esteban Medrano discusses Argentina's macro situation in the face of the pandemic, as well as scenarios for the restructuring.

Fábio Faria's appointment to the Ministry of Communications
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Jun 2020

President Jair Bolsonaro announced yesterday, June 10, the re-creation of the Ministry of Communications, which is no longer part of the Ministry of Science and Technology, and appointed Federal Rep. Fábio Faria (PSD-RN) as its minister. Faria's appointment has the following consequences: ...

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