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Shape of things to come
TURKEY · Report · 06 Apr 2025

The politics section consists of a single essay, which attempts to answer how the current political upheaval will progress. It is relatively easy to foresee the near future, with sporadic mass protests and Erdogan trying to manage them by tactical retreats, to be reversed with sudden attacks on C...

Seven likely outcomes in China from the Trump tariffs
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Apr 2025

China struck back against the new tariffs with a significant 34 percent tariff on US goods, set to take effect on April 10. This is a much broader attack on the US than China engaged in during the first Trump Administration. China also restricted exports of seven types of rare earth metals, added...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil drops $10 due to trade war and OPEC+ hike, Saudi Arabia’s current account falls into deficit, Abu Dhabi sees strong GDP growth, Bahrain’s FDI surges in Q4
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Apr 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent oil crashed by $10 in two days to $65, a 4-year low, due largely to the US trade war. * OPEC+ also announced unexpected production hikes to punish Kazakh overproduction. * GCC states all have trade deficits with the...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Consumer confidence index records annual and monthly decline
MEXICO · In Brief · 04 Apr 2025

Consumer confidence in March records annual and monthly decline, reflecting persistent deterioration over the past four months The consumer confidence index for March 2025 fell by -1.3 points compared to the same month last year, marking its third consecutive annual decline. This drop was driven ...

SA’s political economy erupts: The politics of Fiscal Framework 2025 rattle the Government of National Unity, and President Trump piles on tariffs and turmoil
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Apr 2025

April 3, 2025 may turn out to be a memorable day in SA’s annual calendar in 2025. On the one hand, the domestic tensions within the Government of National Unity (GNU) erupted into the open. This has been building since February 19, when the scheduled Budget Speech 2025 had to be postponed due to...

Webinar Replay and Slide Presentation - Argentina’s Economic Crossroads: Currency valuation, IMF talks and the path to stability
ARGENTINA · Report · 04 Apr 2025

Is the Argentine peso overvalued and will there be another devaluation? Are Argentina’s national accounts balanced at the current ARS level? What are the timelines and conditions for IMF negotiations? How will inflation dynamics develop? What impact will credit penetration have? What is the curre...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia - What happened in Gyumri?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 04 Apr 2025

While the world is justifiably focused on US tariffs, I ponder on the much more esoteric, but no less exciting topic of regional elections in Armenia. Last week the second-largest city in the country, Gyumri, held municipal elections that delivered a result that may have very important consequen...

Webinar Replay - Ecuador Runoff: Shifting votes and the road ahead
ECUADOR · Report · 04 Apr 2025

What is the impact of the debate on the election? How have vote intentions changed since the first electoral round? What are the challenges and opportunities for Daniel Noboa during this second round campaign? Is it possible to expect a moderate government from Luisa Gonzalez should she win? How ...

Motta has appointed Lira as the rapporteur for the bill on income tax, Lewandowski will meet with Motta next week to present a PEC on public security, and the STF will discuss two important cases next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Apr 2025

The President of the House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), has officially appointed Arthur Lira (PP-AL) as the rapporteur for the bill on income tax exemption. A special committee will be established next week. On Tuesday, April 8, the Minister of Justice and Public Security, Ricardo Lewandowski, ...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Private consumption falls YoY in January for second consecutive month
MEXICO · In Brief · 03 Apr 2025

Private consumption in January: Second consecutive annual decline driven by sharp contraction in imported goods consumption, in addition to persistent weakness in domestic goods spending. Private consumption fell -0.9% YoY in January 2025, marking the second consecutive decline after maintaining ...

Mexico Macro Monitor: Gross fixed investment recorded its fifth consecutive decline in January 2025
MEXICO · In Brief · 03 Apr 2025

Gross fixed investment in January: Annual decline recorded for the fifth consecutive month, again due to a sharp contraction in construction investment. Gross fixed investment (GFI) contracted by -5.9% YoY in the first month of this year, continuing the negative trend that began in the second hal...

The US tariffs on Kazakhstan look peculiar, but the overall impact of the US trade policy won’t be unnoticed
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 03 Apr 2025

As the US administration published the list of countries and tariffs imposed on many countries, Kazakhstan found itself in a quite peculiar situation as its foreign trade with the US so far was insignificant. According to the Kazakh Bureau of National Statistics, exports to the US accounted for a...

Decent print, but brace for bumps ahead
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2025

Consumer prices rose by a less than expected 2.5%, m/m, in March (versus consensus forecasts of around 2.9%) with the annual CPI-inflation rate falling by a full percentage point to 38.1%, from 39.1% in February. Monthly Domestic-PPI inflation posted a 1.9% increase in the month, lowering the 12-...

Trump announces reciprocal tariffs impacting Brazilian exports, President Lula’s popularity drops even further, and the rapporteur for the tax exemption bill is announced
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Apr 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump announced yesterday that he will impose a 10% tariff on Brazilian imports—the minimum rate proposed by the American president. The measure will take effect starting Saturday, April 5. The 10% rate for Brazil is lower than the initial expectations of the U.S. government...

Economic activity remains moderate in February, and the trend to persist in 2025
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Apr 2025

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors (a monthly proxy for aggregate economic activity accounting for industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) grew by 1.7% y-o-y in 2M25 and 0.3% y-o-y in February alone. The y-o-y numbers look unimpressive (especially i...

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