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Dispute over the direction of the economy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Apr 2020

The announcement of the Pró-Brasil program – public investment measures to increase job creation and economic growth with a focus on infrastructure – evinced a dispute in the Jair Bolsonaro government over the direction of the economy in the post-pandemic period. Practically at the same time that...

The NBU slashes prime rate down to 8%, anticipates better CAD amid COVID-19 crisis
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Apr 2020

The NBU Board slashed prime rate by 200 basis points down to 8% today. Low inflation (+2.3% y/y in March), no dramatic impact of COVID-19 crisis on external accounts so far, stabilized hryvnia and falling prices for hydrocarbons are behind this decision. That strong a cut was not expected, to be ...

Government intensifies political articulation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Apr 2020

Negotiations are underway with the aim of easing relations between the Planalto Palace and the National Congress. Alongside the military wing’s actions to mend the relationship between Jair Bolsonaro and Rodrigo Maia, the president of the Republic will also meet with the Mayor of Salvador, ACM Ne...

Mikheil Saakashvili is back
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Apr 2020

Mikheil Saakashvili will be appointed Vice-Prime Minister coordinating reforms, according to his Facebook page. Recall Saakashvili entered Ukrainian politics after the Revolution of Dignity in 2014. Ex-president Petro Poroshenko named him ‘an old friend’ and in 2015 appointed Saakashvili governor...

GCC fiscal deficit could reach $250bn in 2020 with a 16% drop in non-oil output
GULF COUNTRIES · Forecast · 22 Apr 2020 · 1 response

Recent forecasts of the impact of COVID-19 have looked optimistic. We have built a model to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on the GCC states in different scenarios. In our baseline, we assume a 23% drop in non-oil output for 6 months and an oil price of $30 on average in 2020-21. In this scenari...

Russia: Pandemic update
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 22 Apr 2020

Economy taking a hitRosstat reported that industrial output was up by a mere 0.3% y-o-y in March, which brought the 1Q20 y-o-y growth figure to just 1.5%. Seasonally adjusted March figure was 1.3% down m-o-m. Mining y-o-y was flat in 1Q20 and down by 1.3% in March, while manufacturing growth in M...

South Africa’s bold R500 billion Covid-19 relief package announced on Day 25 of the nationwide lockdown
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Apr 2020

In a previous report we highlighted the fact that, although South African government coffers are in a precarious state, the government still had to find ways to mobilize funds for tackling the Covid-19 pandemic’s catastrophic health, social and economic impact. The government has found a way to d...

Essential CIS Politics: April 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 22 Apr 2020

▪ Coronavirus has hit all countries in the region. The oil exporting ones are suffering most heavily, with several percentage points likely to be wiped off GDP. ▪ Belarus is carrying on as though Covid-19 is no threat despite admitting to some cases. ▪ The end of the OPEC+ oil deal caused econo...

Mamma Mia!
TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Apr 2020 · 1 response

The Monetary Policy Committee has cut the policy rate (weekly repo) by another 100 bps today to 8.75% (simple), which is more than our, as well as the consensus forecasts of around 50 bps reduction (see chart). To be honest, we stopped being surprised by our central bank’s actions to a great exte...

Russian oil company Tatneft may have to delay dividend payout
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Apr 2020

Tatneft has dropped its plan to buy out shareholders. On April 22 the board of Tatneft advised cancelling its planned payout of fourth quarter dividend that was due in June. The company is desperate to keep money in its accounts so it can get through this downturn. Tatneft is the 5th biggest oil ...

USA sends ambassador to Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Apr 2020

On April 20 Trump nominated the first US ambassador to Belarus in 12 years. There has been a thaw in US-Belarussian relations. Julie Fisher is being sent to Minsk. Ms. Fisher is a career diplomat, not a political appointee. She has served in other former USSR countries and speaks fluent Russian. ...

China Q1 revenue
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Apr 2020

The Chinese Ministry of Finance Tuesday afternoon issued its budget and revenue report for Q1 2020. The headline numbers showed a year-on-year decline of 14.3%. But items jumped out that are worth flagging, some of which are difficult to understand.

China virus check – week ending April 21
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Apr 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) Rising coal use in the power industry and a slight increase iron ore blast furnace operating rates. 2) A slight rise in the growth of traffic congestion. 3) Expressway traffic up 10%. 4) Metro rail traffic is down slightly. 5) Sh...

Will President Rodrigo Duterte lift the Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) on April 30?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Apr 2020

With just a little over a week to go, the debate in policy circles has turned fiercer. It is not difficult to detect the bias within government for another extension, especially after resigned socio-economic planning secretary Ernesto Pernia revealed that his was a “dissonant voice” in the Dutert...

Finally, a unity government in Israel + dovish MPC protocol
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Apr 2020

Prime Minister Netanyahu and Blue & White party leader Gantz have signed an agreement to form a unity government. Under the agreement, Netanyahu and Gantz will rotate the premiership. Netanyahu will serve as prime minister for eighteen months and Gantz for eighteen months after him. The original ...

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