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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Inflation is declining, economic activity is slowly recovering but foreign reserves are depleting
ARGENTINA · Report · 09 Sep 2024

Inflation has stabilized between 3% and 4% monthly, and the government anticipates a further decline. Economic activity is showing signs of a slow but promising recovery. Real wages for workers and retirees are improving, and consumer credit is beginning to reemerge. Furthermore, the governme...

Some issues in the labor market
PHILIPPINES · Report · 09 Sep 2024

Some economists and market watchers have raised the issue that when inflation rate was 4.4% in July 2024 in the Philippines, unemployment rate was 3.1%. However, when inflation rate decelerated to 3.3% in August 2024, unemployment rate was reported to have swelled to 4.7%. This is not exactly inc...

Sequestering "unused" funds, a case of bad fiscal management
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Sep 2024

It is easy to abstract the issue surrounding the Philippines’ Department of Finance circular directing all government owned and controlled corporations (GOCCs) including the Philippine Health Insurance Corporation (PhilHealth) to remit what it called excess funds back to the Bureau of the Treasur...

The House will hold a week of concentrated voting efforts, Bolsonaro held a demonstration on Saturday mainly against STF Justice Alexandre de Moraes, and the CAE will hold a hearing on the suspension of X and Starlink
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Sep 2024

The Lower House is entering another concentrated week of legislative activities. On the agenda are votes on topics considered crucial for both the government and Congress, such as: reinstating payroll taxes; remaining amendments to Complementary Bill No. 108/24, which regulates the Management Com...

Wage pressure remains strong
ISRAEL · Report · 09 Sep 2024

1. The private sector is less optimistic regarding future growth. 2. Rapid wage growth remains an inflationary risk. 3. Israeli institutions have increased their exposure to both foreign assets and to FX.

Expect falling headline inflation data for August tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Sep 2024

KSH is set to publish its CPI-inflation data for August tomorrow. Essentially everyone expects that the headline rate will move downwards from July's actual 4.1% yoy. The MNB, as we reported earlier, predicted 3.4% yoy in its Q2 inflation report (true, that forecast also included 3.8% yoy for Jul...

Ukraine engages in government reshuffle amidst Russian advance in Donbass
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Sep 2024

On September 4, Zelensky reshuffled his cabinet. Many ministers resigned pre-emptively. The move came amidst rumors that a reshuffle was imminent, so members of the government were prepared. That day, the head of the ruling Servant of the People Party, David Arakhamia, wrote on Telegram that over...

Eventful days ahead
TURKEY · Report · 08 Sep 2024

In a brief X post, President Erdogan pledged full support for the newly revised Medium-Term Program (MTP), indirectly expressing his trust in Minister Simsek, which ought to quell rumors about his resignation. CHP’s Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu believes he will soon be banned from politics. I...

The STF suspended the ruling on the Reintegra program, Bolsonaro will hold a demonstration in São Paulo, and the House will hold a week of concentrated voting efforts next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Sep 2024

The Supreme Federal Court (STF) has suspended the ruling on Reintegra, a federal program aimed at returning part of the accumulated tax residues from the production of goods for export. Before the suspension, Justice Gilmar Mendes cast a vote to uphold the rule that allows the Executive Branch to...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ delays taper, UAE revises up 2023 fiscal surplus, Bahrain taxes multinationals, Adnoc and PIF issue bonds
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Sep 2024 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ delayed tapering, cutting Q4 output by 450k b/d, as oil dipped to the lowest in over a year. * PMIs rebounded in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but Kuwait’s fell into contraction. * The IMF’s Saudi Article IV revi...

Russian Macro: GDP Growth to Slow: Aftermath of Overheating
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Sep 2024

A month ago, in the aftermath of the its key rate hike decision, the CBR warned that the Russian economy is operating at full capacity and the demand is overheated by domestic credit and generous budgetary spending. Hence, inflation was high and accelerating. Therefore, some decisive action was r...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgian economy firing on all cylinders
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 06 Sep 2024

The Georgian economy has posted a very impressive 9.7 percent GDP growth over the first seven months of the year (YoY), rendering it the fastest-growing economy in the CCA space. Fast-declining inflation has helped generate high real wage growth and, consequently, robust consumption spending. Low...

Industry and retail sales figures for July: neither good, nor bad
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Sep 2024

Industrial output and retail sales have just been reported by KSH for July. Both were completely unchanged during the month (changing by 0.0% mom in volume terms, seasonally and day-adjusted). For industry, this meant -6.4 yoy, following -3.5% yoy in Q2 (-3% yoy for H1 in total). For retail sales...

Further improvement in South Africa’s terms of trade leads to the narrowing of the current account deficit
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Sep 2024

A welcome economic metric for South Africa came out today as data released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) indicates that the deficit on the country’s current account of the balance of payments narrowed markedly in the second quarter of 2024. The deficit on the current account declined f...

China’s circling of the wagons financial strategy
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 05 Sep 2024

China’s bond market has been on a tear recently. Chinese banks, including both rural and city, along with the big national state banks, have been significantly increasing their purchases of central government bonds, leading to the rare event of 10-year and 30-year bonds trading below the central ...

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