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Breaking News: Comedian Zelenskiy Takes the Lead in Presidential Race
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Jan 2019

It’s a shock. Hype around Zelenskiy exceeded any expectations. Three reputable sociological agencies (funded by USAID) reported that Volodymyr Zelenskiy took the lead in presidential race. It looks like a surreal show but… we will not have a chance to wake up in some other reality. My impression ...

EURHUF at 316: first tentative thoughts on renewed forint strength
HUNGARY · In Brief · 31 Jan 2019

1. EURHUF fell back to around 316 in the last 24 hours, continuing its strengthening trend taken in mid-January. Information available, mainly data from the MNB, suggests that this trend is entirely market driven: especially nonresidents are building up speculative positions in favour of the fori...

Russian investment and consumption lower than 5 years ago
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Jan 2019

Fixed investment was 4.5% lower in 2018 compared to 2014. Retail is almost 11% below what it was in 2008. Real wages are 10% lower than in 2014. In 2008 the government strove to stimulate the economy with pensions and wage hikes. This policy has been abandoned since 2014. The Ministry of Economic...

COSTA RICA: Time to deliver
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Jan 2019

Costa Rica: After tense months filled with debates over fiscal issues, and questions over the day-to-day difficulties of handling largely unbalanced fiscal accounts, the waters seem to be calming. Discussions in December were concentrated on the implications of Moody’s sovereign ratings downgrade...

Inflation Report: The CBRT reiterates its intention to stay tight
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Jan 2019

The CBRT released this year's first Inflation Report today. The 2019 year-end inflation forecast, as we had expected, was revised down by 0.6 percentage point to 14.6% (midpoint of 11.9%-17.3% band) from 15.2% previously (i.e. in the October Report), which is also lower than the 16.5% analysts' f...

No deal on Russian gas shipments via Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Jan 2019

Ukrainian and Russian delegations met in Brussels to seek and agreement on Russian gas shipments via Ukraine to the EU. The talks ended without an agreement. The EU mediated the talks because Russian gas is key for the EU economy. There will be another meeting in May. The EU would like a 10 year ...

Today's Monetary Council: once again no action, no surprise
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Jan 2019

The Monetary Council indeed did nothing today, just as analysts expected. They even missed the opportunity to raise their eyebrows a little bit higher, through injecting a pinch of additional hawkishness into the language of the communiqué. Indeed, the statement they put out after the meeting see...

Growth-stoking investment push is on
CHINA · Report · 29 Jan 2019

GDP rose 6.6% y/y in 2018, down 0.2 pps from 2017. Growth rates declined each quarter throughout the year, falling from 6.8% y/y in Q1 to 6.4% y/y in Q4. Industrial output was up 6.2% y/y, down 0.4 pps from 2017. The manufacturing sector is the main reason for growth slowdown, and growth there f...

Change of government hinges on the military
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 Jan 2019 · 1 response

Recent moves by Venezuela’s opposition and its international backers may lead to a political transition in the short or medium term. But the Maduro regime might once again muddle through by stalling enough to weaken the opposition’s unity and popularity. It’s still too soon to tell whether regime...

Politics: Justice, security and militarization
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jan 2019

The aspect of the government’s security strategy that has drawn the widest criticism is its plan to establish a militarized National Guard to deal with the country’s security crisis. Those concerns were magnified in recent days when President Andrés Manuel López Obrador reversed course and called...

Maia favored in the Lower House, an uncertain election in the Senate and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jan 2019

President Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) will undergo another surgery today, January 28. The Senate MDB meets on Tuesday, January 29, to define the party’s candidate for the speakership in the Senate. Congressmen take office on Friday, February 1, and elect the speakers/presidents of the Lower House and S...

RUSAL and En+ sanctions lifted
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2019

As we forecast last month the US Treasury has lifted sanctions on RUSAL and En+. RUSAL is Russia's biggest aluminum company. RUSAL is partly owned by Oleg Deripaska a Russian-Cypriot billionaire. The UK and EU welcomed the move - Cyprus is an EU member state. The Democrats in the US Congress oppo...

Economics: Price program a page from the past
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jan 2019

The guaranteed price program President López Obrador launched last week for basic grains and fresh milk is one of this administration’s four signature agricultural programs along with others on fertilizer subsidies, non collateralized loans for livestock farmers and one on “production for wellbei...

Venezuela Conference Call: A turning point in the crisis?
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Jan 2019

Events are unfolding quickly as the international community recognizes an opposition leader as the head of an interim government in Venezuela. Will this power shift be enough to pressure a regime change, and how could it unfold? What would be the impact on the country’s economy and markets in the...

Corruption allegations in the lead-up to the State of the Nation Address 2019
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 28 Jan 2019

When President Cyril Ramaphosa delivered his maiden State of the Nation Address (SONA) in February 2018, he put an emphasis on strong action against corruption by the governing party. On February 7, 2019, he will deliver his second SONA.

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