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Economics: No Need to Lower GDP Forecast
MEXICO · Report · 09 Oct 2017

While second quarter data prompted upward revisions to the 2017 GDP forecasts of some analysts and authorities, many have begun scaling back those estimates as evidence of a weakening of consumption and investment have emerged over the course of the third quarter. Some have gone as far as to warn...

Political Reform: Rules approved on the deadline
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Oct 2017

A Constitutional amendment and two laws with changes to electoral rules were published on the deadline for effectiveness in next year’s election. The main changes were: the creation of a public fund to finance campaigns, the institution of a performance clause for parties, the end of party coalit...

Fiscal Policy Victories and Frustrations
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Oct 2017

​The economic team has been unquestionably racking up victories on the fiscal front, among them changes in the design of the student loan program (Fies); alteration of the system of setting the interest rates charged by the BNDES, which will eliminate implicit subsidies; and measures to combat fr...

Inflation continues accelerating
VENEZUELA · Report · 09 Oct 2017

Our October monthly inflation rate forecast rises to 45 percent. The year-to-October 31 rate jumps to 831 percent and the year-on-year rate reaches 1311 percent. We revised upwards our inflation estimates for August and September. The August month-on-month rate went up to 35 percent (from 33 p...

​Turkey-US visa crisis: If I knew, I’d tell you
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Oct 2017 · 1 response

I have been receiving a great deal of questions regarding the visa crisis between Turkey and US since this morning. It physically pains me not to write an analysis about it, but at this point I don’t have a handle on the crucial question of how this episode of tensions will play out. Yet the conc...

A respite after the storm
PERU · Report · 09 Oct 2017

Pressure on Education Minister Marilu Martens to resign, in the wake of a protracted teachers’ strike, ended up leading to the resignation of Prime Minister Fernando Zavala and his entire cabinet, after Zavala’s call for a vote of confidence over the issue backfired. Within 48 hours, President Pe...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 08 Oct 2017

As the Free Syrian Army units sponsored by Turkey enter rebel-controlled Syrian province of Idlip, Turkey is on the verge of a second military adventure in the neighbor. This one promises to be bloodier than the Euphrates Shield, but it is a necessity to retain a say in the future of the war-torn...

In Political Parties Law, Media Likely to Prevail
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 05 Oct 2017

Although the eye of Hurricane Maria did not touch the country, it came close enough to flood entire towns and plantations, displacing thousands of families, and damaging infrastructure and crops in the East and Northeast. In politics, attention has focused on the debate over the political part...

How is investment faring?
INDIA · Report · 05 Oct 2017

Micro data about investment is reliable and is released immediately after the end of a quarter. Hence, we are now able to observe this data for the Jul-Sep 2017 quarter, and it is the first macro data release for the quarter. The broad picture of a stalling of aggregate nominal investment under ...

Advances: Pensions & Eurobonds
UKRAINE · Report · 05 Oct 2017

Parliament finally voted in the long-awaited pension reform, in early October. The law increases effective retirement age (higher requirement of years in service before being vested in a pension), leaving the headline pension age unchanged at age 60. It also envisages immediate pension rises from...

Government launched EUR 1bn in new bonds, more expensive USD debt bought back
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Oct 2017

Economy minister Varga announced tonight that the Hungarian state has completed the buy-back of USD 1.2bn of dollar-denominated bonds with relatively short remaining maturity, and it has issued a new euro-denominated bond in a total amount of EUR 1bn. The minister also said that financing the gov...

Will willingness and capacity to pay suffice?
VENEZUELA · Report · 04 Oct 2017 · 1 response

We hold to our view that the Maduro government is willing to service its debt and we judge that it probably can afford to. But we observe a jump in the (small) risk that technical obstacles to debt service may lead to a default. Much as he’d like to, Nicolás Maduro won’t be able to avoid the ...

Pension reform approved
UKRAINE · In Brief · 03 Oct 2017

Ukrainian parliament voted in the bill on pension reform into the law. The reform presumes increase in years of service (before being vested in a pension) up to 25 years from 15 years previously (35 years by 2028). Nominal retirement age was left unchanged at 60 years. The law envisages immediate...

What Will Xi Jinping Do After the Party Congress?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 Oct 2017

Most analysts believe Xi Jinping is likely to increase his power following the Party Congress on October 18 by strengthening his control over the Party’s Standing Committee. This, in turn, could give him the political freedom to institute economic reforms, including the restructuring of state fir...

September tax collection remains up-beat, despite mild softening in growth
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 03 Oct 2017

In September, total tax collection reached AR$1.9bn, growing 33.1%y/y, quite in line with the accumulated yearly growth (Jan to Sep) of 31.4%y/y. Although the annual rate declined somewhat with respect to the 33.5%y/y observed in f August, it still remains significantly stronger than inflation an...

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