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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Recent peso depreciation may boost recovery if the Central Bank does not overreact
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 05 Aug 2017

The economy saw two areas of good news in June and July. On one side, several indicators showed that the economy is reviving faster and more broadly than most forecasters expected. On the other side, peso devaluation accelerated, and by the end of July the nominal exchange rate coincided with the...

Green Movement Power Expands
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 04 Aug 2017 · 1 response

Monetary policy has changed course, at least in the short run. Effective August 1st, the Monetary Board cut by 2.2% the coefficient of required reserves for financial intermediation entities. This represents a release of up to DOP 20.4 billion (nearly $425 million). The Board also cut policy inte...

South Africa's Political Cul-De-Sac
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 04 Aug 2017

Another week draws to a close and South Africans' frustration grows on many fronts. Not only is the economy held hostage to a political cul-da-sac and facing a near-certain official junk-grade by the year end, the politics has gotten unbearably confusing and brutal. So, SA is full of tension, bot...

After victory, other challenges
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Aug 2017

​As we predicted, Michel Temer successfully defeated the accusation presented by the Prosecutor General of the Republic, Rodrigo Janot, in the Lower House. There were no surprises. The number of votes came in as we predicted: including abstentions and absences, the result was positive for Temer, ...

Phillips Curve Is Not So Flat Over Here
TURKEY · Report · 03 Aug 2017

Thanks to a monthly reading of 0.15% (July 2016: 1.2%) headline CPI inflation fell to a single-digit rate of 9.8% in July, y/y, from 10.9% in June, broadly as expected. This was entirely on account of the drop in food inflation (to 14.3%, from 10.1% in June), with non-food inflation, by our esti...

Rate cut by RBI
INDIA · In Brief · 02 Aug 2017

On the 2nd of August, the Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI in its scheduled meeting decided to cut interest rate by 25 bps while it maintained the stance of monetary policy as neutral. This was largely anticipated by the markets. Several indicators suggest a serious slowdown in demand - indus...

Power Game Affecting Recovery
PERU · Report · 01 Aug 2017

One might have thought that two parties with similar market-friendly views could work harmoniously, and create a fertile environment for reforms to facilitate an eventual government for Keiko Fujimori in the 2021 elections. Instead, this has been a year of acrimonious actions and accusations, and...

Weak Investment May Pressure Growth
CHINA · Forecast · 01 Aug 2017

GDP growth continues flat, its 6.9% y/y rise in H1 up only 0.1 pps from Q4 2016. Industrial output was up 6.9% y/y, climbing by 0.8 pps, and fixed asset investment was up 8.6%. But in real terms, fixed asset investment growth was just 3.8% y/y, down 5 pps from last year. We expect H2 growth to ex...

Forint is reaching its short-term ceiling vis-a-vis the euro in terms of fundamentals
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Aug 2017

What we predicted in our latest reports, that the MNB was going to allow (or even support) the strong forint against the euro in short term - on the back of an ongoing upswing in European industry and with a view to containing domestic inflation - has in fact happened since then. It has gone quit...

Growth is Strong but Uneven; Reforms are Unlikely
PANAMA · Report · 31 Jul 2017

Our medium-term projections of 5.2%-5.4% growth are based on the projected growth of logistics activities linked to the Panama Canal (new transshipment ports, processing plants and roll-on roll-off facilities), on the development of high-income tourist facilities, and on the expansion of the ener...

Week of July 31
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Jul 2017

Congress resumes its activities on Tuesday, August 1, along with the Superior Courts. The main item on the agenda this week is the vote on the accusation against President Michel Temer in the Lower House. The government and the opposition are each designing strategies for the vote. This Week’s...

Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Jul 2017

Last week the Central Bank cut the interest rate by 1 percentage point, to 9.25%. Its communiqué made it clear that there is still room for a significant further reduction of the SELIC rate, without jeopardizing the inflation target for 2018. Our projection is that the interest rate will fall to ...

Economic Monthly report
MEXICO · Report · 31 Jul 2017

The economic data released in July produced further evidence of continuing growth in key parts of the Mexican economy. Spending sustained its expansion in April as Mexico’s index of private consumption rose an annual 5.0% according to seasonally adjusted data: imported goods acted as the main dri...

Till Reality Do Us Part
TURKEY · Report · 30 Jul 2017

In politics, we continue to predict relative calm at home through the end of this year, at the turn of which AKP should realize that its popularity is waning. Facing weakening economic growth as well, it is likely to call early elections by mid-2018 rather than wait until November 2019 -- and ris...

A SHAKY BUDGET
ECUADOR · In Brief · 29 Jul 2017

President Moreno referred to the status of the Ecuadorian economy as "critical" last Friday night when he presented a preliminary version of the Non-Financial Sector Budget for 2017. The assembly will be rest for two weeks and will review the budget after this period. According to the law, the Mi...

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