Services

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Waiting for the Fund
ARGENTINA · Report · 06 Feb 2025

Discussions between the IMF and Argentina on the new Extended Facilities Agreement (EFF) that will replace the one that just expired seem to be on track. Negotiations accelerated in the last two months, and it is quite likely that the agreement will be reached before the end of March. Taking the ...

Poor December figures for industry and retail sales, not entirely consistent with Q4 GDP flash estimate
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Feb 2025

Industrial output fell 1.8% mom, 5.7% yoy in December, the latter after -2.8% yoy in the previous month. Q4 was down 4.1% yoy, full-year 2024 was a decrease of 3.5%, after -4.7% in 2023. As local industry is heavily focussed on exports, all this substantiates concerns about the state of the Europ...

Growth performance updates for 2024. Has inflation been slowing down? A harsh review from the OECD.
POLAND · In Brief · 05 Feb 2025

(Some) data for 2024 are available Statistics Poland has recently produced a flash estimate of GDP and some of the GDP components for the whole year. This clears some of the uncertainty about the behavior of significant growth drivers. In particular, one can see that while we do not have complete...

The proposal for reforms to the CSS pension plan presented by the government was modified by the Labor Commission of the Legislative Assembly on Tuesday night
PANAMA · In Brief · 05 Feb 2025 · 3 responses

Most legislators opposed the proposal due to the three-year increase in the retirement age, arguing that the Government failed to adjust the public sector payroll, thus placing the financial burden on the older population. This claim holds some truth: the number of new public employees increased ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 05 Feb 2025

Jan 24 Tengichevroil: Oil production has begun as part of the “Future expansion” project at the Tengiz oil field. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan wants to choose the vendor for the nuclear plant construction project by July. NBK: The Bank increased its gross gold and FX reserves by 27% (up to $45.8 b...

Geopolitical risks ease, but economic challenges persist
ISRAEL · Report · 05 Feb 2025

Cautious optimism but macro risks remain high: Israel's geopolitical risk profile has significantly decreased toward the start of 2025. The ceasefire in Lebanon is holding, Iran’s regional influence has weakened following the collapse of the Assad regime, and Israel and Hamas have reached a cease...

Lula met with Haddad yesterday to discuss Tax Reform, Haddad will meet with Deputy Motta today to discuss strategies for economic growth, and Haddad will give an interview later tonight
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Feb 2025

Yesterday, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad met with President Lula to discuss the veto within the regulatory framework of Tax Reform regarding the taxation of real estate investment funds (FIIs) and agribusiness investment funds (Fiagros). Today, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad is set to meet w...

The current account deficit widened in 4Q24, and January tax collection is likely to be poor
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 05 Feb 2025

The National Bank of Kazakhstan reported that the current account deficit widened to $2.9 bln in 4Q24 (versus $0.3 trln in 3Q24) and reached $4.4 bln in 2024. In 4Q24, exports decreased by about $1.2 bln compared to 3Q24, while imports rose by $0.9 bln. Lower oil prices and limited volumes of exp...

Not alone in the driver’s seat
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Feb 2025

The minutes of the last Copom meeting displayed a harsher tone compared to the statement released last week but kept open the next steps after the March meeting. For now, the indication of another 1 percentage point increase still stands.

Inflation report: NBU sidesteps discussion on 2025’s potential defining event
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Feb 2025

The NBU released its latest inflation report last Friday and held an expert discussion on the document today. The best way to describe the report would be ‘indistinct.’ The inflation forecast was revised upward to +8.4% YTD in 2025 (from the previously projected 6.9%), while the GDP growth foreca...

Lula met with the presidents of the House and Senate to strengthen ties, a poll shows Lula would be a strong candidate should he run for re-election, and the agribusiness sector is concerned about possible tariffs from the US
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Feb 2025

Yesterday, President Lula met with the president of the Lower House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), and of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP). The meeting was significant, signaling the Executive’s intent to strengthen ties with the Legislative branch. Yesterday, a Genial/Quaest poll on the 20...

Consequences of the decline in government approval and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Feb 2025

The Legislative and Judicial branches resume their activities. The pace in the Legislature this week is expected to be slow, with negotiations taking place regarding members of the standing committees in both Houses. On Saturday, truck drivers will meet in São Paulo to discuss the sector’s list o...

A coy central bank in the face of inflation?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Feb 2025

Recent data suggests an unfavorable inflationary trend, marked by the acceleration of its underlying measures. Our forecast points to an inflation rate of 5.8% in 2025, above the level recorded in 2024 and, therefore, also above the tolerance limit for the inflation target. We use our semi-struct...

Politics: Judicial reform running into serious obstacles with the election of judges just four months away
MEXICO · Report · 03 Feb 2025

Morena and the Fourth Transformation’s “Judicial Reform” is encountering major obstacles in its implementation. The reform, based on the popular election of Supreme Court justices, judges, and magistrates on a federal, state, and local level, is viewed as a way of eliminating what has been the ma...

Economics: Activity slowdown projected to continue and deepen in 2025
MEXICO · Report · 03 Feb 2025

The 4Q24 economic indicators point to a continued and deepening slowdown for 2025. 4Q GDP clocked in at a lackluster seasonally adjusted annual 0.6%. This result brought 2024 GDP growth to 1.5%, in line with estimates and less than half the 2023 result. We project weak 0.3% GDP growth for 2025 t...

Copyright 2025 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.