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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Apr 30 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Apr 28
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 2
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank Mar 25
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank Apr 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank Apr 11
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South Africa databank Apr 7
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank Mar 6
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Venezuela databank Apr 24
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - PANAMA IN FOCUS: US RELATIONS, CANAL STRATEGY AND FI...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
The vote on the Mover bill has been postponed once again, the House approved the bill that penalizes illegal occupants of rural properties and public buildings, and Haddad said a 3% inflation target is “very demanding”
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 May 2024
The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), once again postponed the vote on the Mover bill in the plenary of the House. The decision was taken after a meeting with the leaders and the rapporteur of the matter, Átila Lira (PP-PI). Yesterday, the House concluded the vote on the bill that esta...
EU approves use of proceeds from Russian frozen assets for Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 May 2024
On May 21 the decision in relation to up to EUR 3 billion was announced. 90% of this will go to the European Peace Facility and it will pay EU countries for the military equipment they donate to Ukraine. There has been discussion of confiscating the frozen Russian assets but several EU member sta...
The second Tax Reform regulation bill may be submitted next week, Lira announced the Tax Reform working groups, and Haddad says the taxation of international purchases will not compensate for payroll tax relief
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 May 2024
According to the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, the second bill on Tax Reform regulation, specifically on the Steering Committee that will discuss the federal distribution of revenue from the Tax on Goods and Services (IBS), will be sent to Congress next week, before the holiday on May 30....
Past the bottom of the inflation cycle
HUNGARY · Report · 22 May 2024
The past month has brought about no major surprises in Hungary; everything was largely in line with expectations. The economy is still quite weak, but consumer demand, construction activities and tourism showed distinct signs of consolidation in Q1. However, other areas, such as industrial output...
Slide Presentation: Caucasus and Central Asia - Economic Upswings and Political Prospects
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 22 May 2024
Get insight into the macroeconomic and political outlook for Armenia, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Azerbaijan with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Caucasus and Central Asia - Economic Upswings and Political Prospects".
Kazakhstan macro: recent balance of payments statistics point to gradual decoupling from Russia
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 21 May 2024
In recent days, the National Bank of Kazakhstan and the country’s Bureau of National Statistics published their foreign trade and balance of payments statistics for 1Q24, suggesting that the trade surplus widened while the current account deficit narrowed. Imports grew steadily until mid-2023 and...
The MNB base rate was reduced by another 50bps today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 May 2024
At today's monthly rate-setting meeting, the Monetary Council decided to cut the base rate further to 7.25%, exactly as expected. After the meeting, vice governor Virág spoke again, as usual. He painted a positive picture, mentioning a disinflationary global environment, the recent increase in in...
President Boluarte under fire; real GDP to accelerate in Q2; BCRP’s easing cycle nears its end
PERU · Report · 21 May 2024
We cover three topics in this report. First, we discuss the likelihood of Congress impeaching President Dina Boluarte. Then, we evaluate Peru’s economic performance, suggesting that real GDP remained stagnant throughout Q1 2024. We expect a rebound in Q2 2024, on the back of fiscal stimulus, and ...
The Senate may vote on the urgent status of the payroll tax exemption bill, the financial impact of the Five Year PEC will be reviewed, and the House may vote on the Mover bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 May 2024
Today, the Senate may vote on the urgent status request for the bill (PL 1,847/2024) that implements the agreement between Congress and the Executive Office on payroll relief, both for companies and municipalities. The President of the Federal Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), said yesterday that...
Election Monitor IV: Optimistic politicians and unpredictable voters
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 May 2024
In less than 10 days, on May 29, the SA voters will have their day to express their preferences and put an end to the current cacophony of political noise, baseless promises and over-optimistic expectations of many political leaders. Recently, the country’s top court, the Constitutional Court ...
Philippines-China Maritime Row: Getting uglier
PHILIPPINES · Report · 21 May 2024
How China would react to defensive moves of the Philippines is the big question. It would have to rethink its use of powerful lasers and water cannons, for even the US Indo-Pacific Command had at one point expressed the view that if this results in the death of any sailor or military personnel, ...
Serious harm, little gain
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 May 2024
The Law for the Protection of Social Security Pensions from Imperialist Blockade (LPP) went into effect on May 8, 2024, creating a new tax of up to 15% of formal and informal private employers' salary and non-wage bonus payments. The rate was set at 9% by presidential decree on May 16 . The new ...
Ministerial Reform on the radar and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 May 2024
This week we expect the installation of a Working Group in the House to discuss Tax Reform regulation. In the Federal Senate, the bill that deals with tax relief for companies and city halls may be put to a vote. Mayors will march on Brasília. The Petrobras Board may approve the appointment of Ma...
Politics: Races tighten; although Sheinbaum remains in the lead, the scenario of a reduced margin is more likely
MEXICO · Report · 20 May 2024
The presidential contest has narrowed recently due to a slight decrease in pro-Sheinbaum voting intentions while Xóchitl Gálvez has held steady, and the only candidate to pick up more support is third place challenger Máynez, although he remains just outside double-digit ranges. One online poll, ...
Extra Caution, Less Cuts
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 May 2024
The current domestic scenario has been characterized by resilient activity, marked by positive surprises at the beginning of the year, and an increasingly tight labor market. In the Copom minutes, the Committee indicates that in this context, combined with the adverse external environment and unm...