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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

So far, so good
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 25 Aug 2022

It has been a slow crawl out of the pandemic for the economy. 1H2022 output has surpassed the pre-pandemic level but the economy has emerged only to face a gloomy world economic outlook, with elevated commodity prices, tighter financial conditions and slowing global growth. The government lacks t...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Aug 2022

The situation in the Russian FX market remains calm. The exchange rate fluctuated in a relatively narrow range of R/$ 59-61. Trading activity was rather moderate amid the summer holidays and more or less neutral news flow. One of the most intriguing events happened on Aug 18 as a daily turnover i...

2022 Budget amendment Bill with higher deficit but no change in financing needs
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 25 Aug 2022

The government delivered to the National Congress the Budget Amendment Bill for 2022, which increases the deficit to 3.6% of GDP, 0.6 pp higher than initially formulated. The novelty is that, thanks to the increase in tax revenues and savings in interest payments due to liability management opera...

Armenia and Azerbaijan negotiate in Brussels
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Aug 2022

On August 24 representatives of the two hostile countries met under the auspices of the EU. In August 2022 there was sniping across the ceasefire line between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Armenia accused the other side of being the aggressor. The EU's statement about the talks was notable for its non-...

Ukraine celebrates independence day as Johnson visits
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Aug 2022

On August 24 Ukraine marked 31 years of independence. It also happened to be 6 months since the war began. Zelensky vowed to recover all national territory without making concessions. He referred to the Russian Army as ''terrorists''. Charred Russian tanks were displayed in Kyiv.  UK Prime Minist...

Lula will be interviewed by Globo’s Jornal Nacional tonight, the Brasmarket poll shows that Bolsonaro is in the lead, and the government reinstated the IPI on 109 products
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Aug 2022

Former President Lula's performance in this interview is expected to be a deciding factor regarding whether he will participate in the first electoral debate of the campaign, scheduled for Sunday, August 28, on TV Bandeirantes, and, consequently, Jair Bolsonaro's participation in the debate. The ...

Consolidated budget surplus narrows in July as republican budget deficit widens – as planned
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 25 Aug 2022

The Ministry of Finance of Kazakhstan reported that in 7M22, the authorities were able to accumulate KZT11.853 trln of revenues in the consolidated budget out of KZT18.612 trln targeted for the full year. This budget accounts for budgets of all levels, the National Fund, and state social funds, a...

The winding road to recognition
VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Aug 2022

With his sights set on 2024, when he hopes to secure his third term, Maduro needs to keep his fiscal austerity program on track while facing growing demands for better salaries and services. He needs to revive his electoral machinery, diminished by the civil service's weakening and the disillusio...

Deflation continues while economic activity seemingly stabilizes
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 24 Aug 2022

Rosstat reported another week of deflation as in seven days ending on August 22 the consumer price index fell by 0.15% w-o-w. It brought the MTD deflation to 0.38%. Inflation YTD decelerated to 10.56%. It is likely that in August, deflation could exceed 0.5% m-o-m and bring down the y-o-y inflati...

Lower-than-budgeted revenue for the first two quarters, the search for independent presidential hopefuls begins, and the populist approach to the social crisis continues at a slower pace
PANAMA · Report · 24 Aug 2022 · 1 response

The fiscal balance for the NFPS during the first six months of the year showed an increase in revenue in real terms and reductions in current and investment expenditure, also in real terms, compared with 2021. Current savings were negative (0.35% of GDP) but better than the -0.8% of last year. Th...

Ciro was interviewed by Globo’s Jornal Nacional last night, the Federal Police carried out an operation against businessmen who support Bolsonaro, and two more polls on the presidential election will be published today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Aug 2022

The atmosphere of the interview with Ciro was friendlier than in the interview with President Jair Bolsonaro. Ciro insisted on presenting numbers and detailing proposals, mentioning his government plan, which is the subject of a book he published about two years ago. This made his interview tiri...

The Argentine economy will only deteriorate over the remainder of the Fernandez Presidency: forecasts for 2022 and 2023
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 23 Aug 2022

Even assuming that the government is able to comply with the fiscal and monetary targets set in the EFF program negotiated with the IMF (a primary fiscal deficit around 2.5% of GDP and monetary financing of the Treasury by 1% of GDP in 2022; and 1.9% of GDP and 0.6% of GDP for those parameters, r...

Bolsonaro was interviewed by Globo’s Jornal Nacional last night, Ciro will be interviewed today, and Lula gave an interview to the international press yesterday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Aug 2022

The main topics discussed in Bolsonaro’s interview were the electoral system, his relationship with the Supreme Federal Court (STF), the pandemic, the economy, the environment, his alliance with the center, and education. In his final remarks, Bolsonaro said that the country has gone through toug...

Castillo on a razor’s edge; Burneo warns of recession; BCRP likely to pause at 7%
PERU · Report · 23 Aug 2022

We focus on three topics in this report. First, we discuss the likelihood of President Pedro Castillo’s resigning on the back of investigations conducted by the Ministerio Público Fiscalía de la Nación (MPFN, the Attorney General’s Office). Second, we explain the recent changes to our growth fore...

Daughter of pro-Putin nationalist thinker killed in Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Aug 2022

On August 22 Daria Dugina was assassinated. It is thought the bomb that blew up her car was intended to kill her father, who is a pro-Putin nationalist philosopher. Alexander Dugin was due to travel in the car and at the last moment decided not to. Russia has blamed Ukraine for the slaying. Ukrai...

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