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GULF WEEKLY: Erdogan visits Saudi, Sharjah on Negative outlook, Oman plans privatizations
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Apr 2022

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Moody’s restored stable outlooks to Gulf banking sectors due to improved operating conditions. * Saudi Arabia ordered 50k+ Lucid EVs, and colorful details emerge of its 2018 talks with Tesla. * Erdogan visited Saudi Arabia...

Armenia and Azerbaijan agree on border commission
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Apr 2022

On April 25 the foreign ministers of the two countries agreed on the structure of the commission that will draw their border. Russia has a special envoy shuttling between Yerevan and Baku to mediate the agreement.Azerbaijan wants mutual territorial recognition. Armenia's Prime Minister hinted he ...

A pre-holiday recap
TURKEY · Report · 29 Apr 2022

The Turkish markets will be closed through Wednesday next week, because of the Eid al-Fitr or Ramadan Holiday. In this note, we provide a quick update on the latest state of affairs in politics, and review some of the recent data releases on the econ side. The conviction of Osman Kavala to lif...

Russian macro: initial signs of economic transformation
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Apr 2022

March was the first full month that the Russian economy began its transformation toward an unknown future, which is likely to be more ascetic, less reliant on imports and less open to the rest of the world – at least in the initial stage. It looks as though the impact of the military activity in ...

Lockdown halts powerful economic recovery
CHINA · Report · 29 Apr 2022

The COVID-19 lockdowns in Shanghai and some other cities since late March have halted the strong economic recovery. In Q1, GDP was up 4.8% y/y, up 0.8 pps from Q4 2021, but 0.2 pps lower than in Q1 2020. Industrial output rose 6.5% in Q1, up 2.6 ppts from Q4, but down 1 pps from January-February....

Webinar Replay - Latin America: Global shocks and local politics
COLOMBIA · Report · 29 Apr 2022

Understand how global shocks and local political landscapes are shaping the outlook for Brazil, Colombia, Chile, and Peru. Visit the calendar page to watch the replay of the webinar featuring our analysts discussing how the region will balance the inflation and growth shocks created by war.

The legitimacy of electronic voting remains on the agenda, former President Lula explicity stated that he is a presidential candidate for the first time, and the House will analyze the national nursing salary floor
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Apr 2022

Arthur Lira (PP-AL) said on social media yesterday that the Brazilian electoral system is “renowned” and that “thinking differently casts doubt on the legitimacy of all elected officials”. Rodrigo Pacheco said that he has no "place" to question the legitimacy of the electoral process in the count...

Essential CIS Politics: April 2022
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 29 Apr 2022

* The Ukraine conflict continues, although Russia has changed its focus from Kyiv to Donbas. On April 22, a Russian general was quoted stating Russia's war aim in this conflict. General Minnikaev clarified what has long been suspected: that one of the main goals is to establish a land corridor t...

A turning point of the war: Ramstein meeting and Lend-lease act
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Apr 2022

The second week of the "big battle" over Donbas is coming to its end. From all sides we have reports that fighting is very tough across the board. The Russians keep throwing all their forces in frontal attacks on Ukrainian positions. In some sections of the front they are making progress (see map...

UN Secretary General in Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Apr 2022

On April Antonio Guterres was in the Ukrainian capital. He denounced the war. While he was there Russia launched missiles at the city. They killed 3 civilians.President Biden asked Congress for a USD 33 billion aid package for Ukraine. USD 20 billion of this is a military aid. It is likely that t...

Chinese payment system not working in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Apr 2022

UnionPay is not cooperating with Russia's main bank: Sberbank. UnionPay has stopped talks with other banks because it is worried about sanctions. The Russian news website RBC reported this on April 21.Russian banks wished to issue UnionPay cards because Visa and Mastercard do not work in Russia s...

Kazakhstan: Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Apr 2022

April 14Bureau of National Statistics: Kazakhstan's industrial output moved up by 5.8% in annual terms in the first three months of 2022Ministry of Finance: Kazakhstan's economy may lose about KZT300 bln ($666.4 mln) in 2022 from anti-Russian sanctions as well as the situation in Ukraine in gener...

El Salvador: Growth and international friendship flag
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Apr 2022

El Salvador’s robust 2021 post-pandemic economic growth is expected to fade in 2022, returning to a potential growth rate a little lower than before COVID-19. As the optimistic view of the world economy moderates due to new and old negative events, our previous estimates move in the same directio...

The sterilisation rate went up by 30 bps today, meeting expectation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Apr 2022

At today's tender, the MNB raised its fixed interest rate for 1-week deposits by 30 bps, to 6.45%. This was exactly the same as private sector analysts' median expectation, following the 100 bps increase in the base rate, to 5.4%, at Tuesday's Council meeting.These latest decisions were also an e...

The House approved the Auxílio Brasil provisional measure, the Senate will analyze presidential vetoes today, and there was yet another setback for Operation Car Wash
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Apr 2022

The House approved the Auxílio Brasil payments of R$ 400. The rapporteur, João Roma, former Minister of Citizenship, accepted an edit to make this value permanent. Today, the National Congress will analyze presidential vetoes. To overturn a veto, an absolute majority of votes is required — at lea...

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