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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: High profile attacks by cartels underscore the importance of the National Guard debate
MEXICO · Report · 22 Aug 2022

Organized crime groups mounted extremely violent attacks in four states on August 9-14 that included multiple roadblocks of major thoroughfares and highways and the torching of dozens of cars, trucks, passenger buses and businesses, leaving scores of people dead or wounded as gunmen murdered inno...

Electoral agenda strategy and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Aug 2022

Electoral advertising on TV and radio begins on August 26. The main candidates will give live interviews to TV Globo's Jornal Nacional. On August 28, the first presidential debate has been scheduled on Band. So far, three presidential polls are registered with the TSE. This week's Talking Poin...

The answer lies below the line
ECUADOR · Forecast · 22 Aug 2022

Fiscal results for the General Government for H1, showing a small overall surplus of around $0.4b, are better than expected. Also, the balance of trade shows a significant surplus of $2b, deposits and credit continue to grow steadily y/y, and international reserves are maintaining high levels of ...

China increases purchase of Russian hydrocarbons
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Aug 2022

On August 22 Bloomberg published data from the Chinese Customs service showing that China bought USD 35 billion of Russian oil, gas and coal in March-July 2022. Over the same period in 2022 China bought USD 20 billion of these Russian fuels. The increased amount spent is a reflection of price inc...

The Neutral Interest Rate and Fiscal Policy in Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Aug 2022

It is known that economically mature countries tend to have low neutral interest rates. The causes are also known, ranging from the demographic transition to the lower investment rate, and it is necessary to understand how monetary policy operates when the interest rate in equilibrium approaches ...

Fiscal policy switched to emergency mode
HUNGARY · Report · 22 Aug 2022 · 1 response

It was only a month ago that we raised our end-2022 consumer inflation forecast to the upper teens, simultaneously improving the outlook for growth, predicting robust annual GDP growth for this year. But forecasts do not have a long life these days. We now see CPI-inflation even higher, right aro...

BoI surprises with a 0.75% rate hike
ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 Aug 2022

Rates moved 0.75% higher on August 22, to 2.0%, with the monetary statement noting the acceleration in inflation in July (above the upper bound and broad based), the robust growth print in Q2 2022 of 6.8% and the strong level of activity in July, the tight labor market (the employment rate is abo...

Economics: Agricultural and food sectors at risk of sanctions over energy-sector violations of USMCA
MEXICO · Report · 22 Aug 2022

US and Canadian requests for consultations over alleged USMCA violations in relation to various provisions and measures in Mexico’s energy sector policies may lead to the establishment of an arbitration panel and eventually the imposition of tariff measures to compensate for damages incurred by t...

Real estate cooling drags economic recovery
CHINA · Report · 22 Aug 2022

Industrial output grew 3.5% y/y in January-July, up 0.1 pps from H1. In January-July, investment rose 5.7% y/y, down 0.4 pps from H1. In particular, the investment growth rate in July was down 2.4 pps from June. High infrastructure investment has been flattened by reduced real estate investment. ...

Electoral campaigns will start on TV and radio on Friday, the first debate between presidential candidates will take place this Sunday, and Lula has started making moves toward groups that are closer to Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Aug 2022

While having a good amount of TV time during the elections is important in communicating with voters, having the most TV time does not always guarantee electoral success, especially in presidential races. The presidential debate will be held jointly with Band, TV Cultura, UOL and Folha de S.Paulo...

A 0.5% rate hike more likely on Monday (today)
ISRAEL · Report · 22 Aug 2022

1. We expect a rate hike of 0.5% today (Monday) due to higher inflation and strong growth, offset by lower inflation expectations and a strong shekel. 2. The GDP in the second quarter of 2022 is 12% above that of pre-Covid (Q419). 3. Our inflation forecast stands at 2.4% NTM, with higher housin...

Western military aid to Ukraine slows
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Aug 2022

On August 19 the Kiel Institute published a study of Western aid for Ukraine. It concluded that in July 2022 aid to Ukraine fell dramatically. Most EU countries promised no additional aid that month. In July 2022 Ukraine received only USD 1.5 billion in new pledges of military and economic aid. U...

Russia closes gas pipeline to the EU for "maintenance"
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Aug 2022

On August 20 Gazprom announced that Nord Stream will be shut from August 31 to September 2. This will exacerbate energy shortages in the EU. Some suspect that this is the true purpose of the maintenance work. After maintenance work Gazprom said gas flow will resume at 33 million cubic meters per ...

0.5% rate hike more likely on Monday
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Aug 2022

A rate hike of 0.5% is expected on Monday for the following reasons * Inflation in July surprised sharply on the upside with core inflation accelerating to 4.7% y/y from 4.1% in June, due mostly to accelerating housing rental prices, as well as travel abroad costs. * Robust economic growth: GDP g...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman upgraded, Bahrain & Qatar see H1 surpluses, IMF proposes Saudi fiscal rules
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Aug 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Hopes grew that Iran and the US will compromise to restore the nuclear deal. * Aramco achieved record profits but plans lower-than-expected capex this year. * IMF Article IV praised Saudi policy but urged it to maintain t...

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