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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Kazakh government expects the economy to grow around 4% in 2023
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 31 Aug 2022

At a government meeting last Friday, the authorities presented their view on the country’s economic growth in 2023 and beyond and discussed various scenarios. The baseline scenario assumes that the oil price would stay at $85/bbl on average and the KZT/$ averages at 470 in 2023. GDP is expected t...

Former Soviet President Gorbachev dies
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Aug 2022

On August Mikhail Gorbachev died aged 91. Gorbachev ruled the USSR 1985-91. He is widely disliked for allowing the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The economic reforms that he introduced led to chaos and mass unemployment in the 1990s.  Gorbachev represents everything that Putin despises. Gorbac...

Azerbaijan takes land from Armenia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Aug 2022

On August 26 the President of Azerbaijan said his army had taken Lachin which is a town connecting the Nagorno Karabakh Region to Armenia. The area had been under the control of 2 000 Russian peacekeepers since 2020 as part of a 5 km wide corridor. There is supposed to be a new route built by 202...

Inflation continues to creep higher
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Aug 2022

The Indonesian economy posted an encouraging result for GDP in Q2 2022, growing by 5.44% Y/Y, significantly above the 5.01% achieved in the previous quarter. In fact, the rate of growth also exceeded the consensus, which expected the rate of growth to be at most 5.20% for the quarter. Compare...

Consumer credit growth gathers pace in July pointing to a rebound in consumer demand
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Aug 2022

CBR reported that in July, the Russian banks granted nearly R1.5 trln in consumer credits in gross terms which means that most likely the outstanding consumer credit grew last month more than in June. In June, outstanding consumer debt to banks grew by a mere R0.1 trln as was reported in the Surv...

Base rate hike was combined with quantitative measures to reduce banks' forint liquidity today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Aug 2022

The Monetary Council held its monthly rate setting meeting today. Unsurprisingly, it raised the MNB base rate further, by 100 bps to 11.75%. Accordingly, the interest rate corridor went up by 100 bps as well, to 11.25-14.25%. The 1-week deposit rate will most likely be raised by the same amount a...

Pro-Moscow Ukrainian shot dead
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Aug 2022

On August 29 an official in Kherson was killed presumably by Ukrainian Forces. The man was Alexei Kovalev who was a Ukrainian politician who had been working for the Russian Administration. Kovalev had even been in President Zelensky's party until a few months ago. Ukraine has been very eager to ...

The presidential debate is not expected to cause major changes in the race, the Senate approved the bill regarding health insurance coverage, and the House should vote on provisional measures before they expire
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Aug 2022

The most discussed topics in the press following the presidential debate were Lula's slip when Bolsonaro asked him about corruption and the way President Jair Bolsonaro reacted to a question from journalist Vera Magalhães about vaccines. The race remains polarized between Lula and Bolsonaro, with...

China's tech crackdown - an excerpt from my new book, "China's Technology War: Why Beijing Took Down Its Tech Giants"
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 30 Aug 2022

When Jack Ma, the billionaire founder of Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba, gave a speech on October 24, 2020 to the country’s political and financial elite, he set in motion a crackdown on China’s flourishing technology sector that will have long consequences on China’s economic growth. In my n...

Economics: What the troubled Sofomes say about the state of the Mexican financial system
MEXICO · Report · 30 Aug 2022

This past August 8 an important Sofom (one of the Multiple Purpose Financial Companies or Sociedades Financieras de Objeto Múltiple) announced it was suspending payments to its creditors given “the complicated environment facing the non bank financial institution sector.” Given that this company ...

Chile's Constitutional Referendum: The Countdown Begins
CHILE · In Brief · 29 Aug 2022 · 1 response

With just under a week to go to Chile’s constitutional referendum, the political process which began on 18 October, 2019 is about to reach its zenith. Polls continue to show that a plurality of Chileans will reject the draft constitution on 4 September, although as other important votes elsewhere...

Kazakhstan macro: high oil prices to support revenue flow for the rest of the year
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 29 Aug 2022

On August 27, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister Zhamaubaev presented a draft law on the Republican budget for 2023-2025. Mr. Zhamaubaev mentioned that republican budget revenues are expected at KZT 17.8 trln next year while expenditures should reach KZT 21.0 trln. Hence the deficit is expected t...

Politics: Mexican educational system stymied by mistaken government policies
MEXICO · Report · 29 Aug 2022

Educational policy and programs have played a key role in the public battle between proponents and opponents of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s Fourth Transformation (4T), which openly declares its aim to radically transform Mexican society. The Education Reform of 2013 pushed by then-Pre...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Aug 2022

The great majority of the recent opinion polls indicate that Lula’s advantage over Bolsonaro is narrowing, and in some cases even suggest a statistical tie. The rejection of both leading candidates also is relatively equal, at a level above 40%, reflecting the sharp polarization of the current el...

No risk of rupture and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Aug 2022

The National Congress will hold a week of concentrated voting. On Wednesday, August 31, the Executive branch sends the 2023 Federal Budget to Congress for analysis. Polls on the state and federal elections will be published throughout the week. This week's Talking Points:  * Main topi...

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