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The Lula ceiling and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 May 2022

The third way parties (PSDB-MDB-Cidadania) meet again to discuss the poll results that will define the selection of the bloc's candidate. Eletrobras's privatization process will be discussed again at the TCU. Public servants continue to pressure the government for salary raises. The fuel price is...

GDP contracted modestly in Q122, not really indicative of actual activity
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 May 2022

GDP contracted modestly in Q122 The official GDP growth print came in at -1.6% saar in the 1st quarter of the year, following rapid growth of 15.6% in Q421 (and 8.2% growth in all 2021).We stress that that past two years of Covid and periodic Covid restrictions led to significant problems in meas...

Politics: Two tragic examples of government incompetence in the capital’s airspace and Metro
MEXICO · Report · 16 May 2022

Since the very first months of López Obrador’s time as president it has been apparent that his administration would display grave defects in daily governing tasks, a deficiency that translates not only into an inability to address the multiple problems society faces but also into an incapacity to...

Stronger Growth and Higher Inflation: The Central Bank’s Reaction
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 May 2022

Both because Brazilian growth benefits from higher international commodity prices and because the government has been using fiscal and credit stimulus policies to expand demand, economic activity began the year on the upswing. The most recent data indicate that growth in the first quarter was 1.3...

'Careful but resolute price control measures' have sent EURHUF up to 391-392
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 May 2022

Parliament formally elected Viktor Orbán for prime minister for the fifth time today. In his introductory speech, held in the afternoon, he spoke of inflation, saying that the government and the central bank will need to cooperate to solve the problem. On the government's role, he said: 'Careful ...

SAUDI: Q1 fiscal outturn shows some signs of spending restraint despite the oil surge
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 May 2022

MoF published its Q1 fiscal outturn alongside Aramco’s earnings report. The overall surplus of SR57.5bn ($15.3bn, 6.4% of budgeted GDP) is by far the strongest since the quarterly series began in 2016 and sets the basis for a strong full-year surplus. Although expenditure is generally seasonally ...

The current account strengthens in April causing an unpleasant appreciation of the ruble
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 May 2022

As the EU having imposed bans on exports to Russia, appears either quite slow or reluctant to get rid of energy imports from Russia, the latter's current account surplus widened in 4M22 to an unprecedented $95.8bn. In 1Q22, the current account surplus stood at $58.2 bn, implying that in April alo...

The third-way alliance may postpone the selection of its presidential candidate, the TCU will resume the judgment on the privatization of Eletrobras on Wednesday, and the income tax rapporteur may meet with Pacheco to discuss the proposal
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 May 2022

Quantitative and qualitative polls will be published on Wednesday, May 18, that will determine the selection of the presidential candidate of the third-way alliance. The group’s candidate was expected to be announced on May 18, but this could be postponed and announced at the end of the month ins...

New president of the republic inaugurated, made anti-Russia statements
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 May 2022

On May 14, Katalin Novák, the first woman in Hungary's history to be the president of the public for five years was inaugurated, replacing János Áder, whose 5-year term had expired.It is quite rare in Hungary that anything about the president of the republic, who is elected by parliament and has ...

A solid pace of recovery in 2022 and 2023. The month of May will be an important one for local politics
PANAMA · Forecast · 16 May 2022

The economy will grow 6.4% in 2022 and 4.9% in 2023. The main drivers will be investments and exports. The former, both private and public, are expected to lead growth due to a low comparison base. The latter, in particular tourism and air transportation, will grow at a solid pace. External condi...

Inflation accelerates, supportive of steady tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 16 May 2022

1. Inflation in April accelerated to 4% y/y, and core inflation by 3.4%, in line with expectations. 2. Inflation is increasingly broad based, a factor that will support monetary tightening. 3. Economic indicators point to steady growth and a tight labor market.

Russia nationalizes Renault factory
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 May 2022

On May 16 the Mayor of Moscow said the French car factory had been nationalized, and the Soviet-era car the Moskvitch will be brought back. This is the first significant transfer of a private asset to the state since the Ukraine War began.Most of the 45,000 Renault factory workers and subcontract...

​Inflation remains rampant
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 16 May 2022

Although April National CPI inflation of 6.0%m/m showed a mild decline compared to the surprising 6.7%m/m of Match. This moderate deceleration is to a large extent explained by seasonal factors. Annual inflation remains in an upward trend, closing in April at 58%y/y, compared to 55.1%y/y the mont...

Inflation seemingly stabilizes
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 May 2022

After some delay caused by limited number of working days in early May (due to national holidays) Rosstat reported that inflation in April reached 1.56% m-o-m and 11.67% YTD. Inflation y-o-y hit 17.83%. These figures were generally expected as consumer demand has likely started to shrink, especia...

Ukraine wins Eurovision and stalls Russia in East Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 May 2022

On May 14 Ukraine won the Eurovision Song Contest. It is suspected that other countries voted for Ukraine more out of political solidarity than for musical merit. The singer said from the stage, ''Please help Ukraine and help Mariupol!'' He was referring to the Ukrainian city where hundreds of Uk...

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