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Russian macro: moderate growth in 2023 driven by domestic demand
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 03 Apr 2023

Assuming no new major external shocks in 2023, the economy may grow by over 1% this year. The current account will shrink while still remaining in surplus, and the budget balance will remain in deficit. Inflation may decelerate to below 5% this year, which will enable the Central Bank to cut the...

Base effects continue, so does stickiness
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2023

Consumer prices rose by a lower than expected 2.3% in March (vs. 2.7-2.8% consensus), with the 12-month rate thus easing further to 50.5%, from 55.2% in February, and a peak of 85.5% in October last year. Domestic producer prices rose very modestly by 0.4%, m/m, in the month, which led to a furth...

The Governor sends a stern warning
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Apr 2023

Rates up with a stern warning Today’s rate hike of 0.25% to 4.5% was widely expected due to broad and sticky inflation, growth in line with the long-term trend, and a tight labor market. The Bank of Israel Research Dept. macro forecast attracted much more attention. For the first time since Covid...

Pdvsa struck by earthquake
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Apr 2023

After months of rumors as to the collapse of the government's stabilization program caused by an apparently unforeseen drought in oil revenues, an earthquake has struck Pdvsa. Aftershocks continue to be felt. It all started last January when Colonel Pedro Tellechea was named president of Pdvs...

The government may submit the new fiscal framework to Congress this week, the conflict in Congress regarding the analysis of provisional measures continues, and Bolsonaro to testify to the Federal Police about the jewelry he brought into the country
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Apr 2023

The government may submit a supplementary bill dealing with the new fiscal framework to Congress. As a supplementary bill, it will need 257 votes in the House and 41 in the Senate to be approved. The conflict between the House and the Senate regarding the analysis of provisional measures (MPs) co...

Markets will react to the rate decision bias
ISRAEL · Report · 03 Apr 2023

1. We expect a rate hike of 0.25% today due to sticky inflation, a generally resilient economy and a fairly tight labor market. 2. With the shekel retreating from its peak of 3.70/USD on the judicial overhaul postponement, a 0.5% hike appears less likely. 3. Markets will follow closely the ...

Markets will react to the rate decision bias
ISRAEL · In Brief · 02 Apr 2023

We currently expect a rate hike of 0.25% today (Monday) Inflation has remained sticky, surprising on the upside, and broad-based. Economic activity appears resilient (for now) and the labor market fairly tight. The BoI annual report noted that inflation being impacted by demand factors, and less ...

Waiting is just torture
TURKEY · Report · 02 Apr 2023

Each week brings new polls which show the Nation Alliance leader Kilicdaroglu firming his lead over incumbent Erdogan. A few experts even call him victor in the first round, which would have been unthinkable a few weeks ago. However, can his former intra-party rival Muharrem Ince play the spoiler...

Policy reform notes
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 02 Apr 2023

We turn our attention away from the banking turmoil in the west and look at some recent domestic policy developments. We find some of these good in terms of helping to improve the local investment climate, some less clear in terms of their economy-wide net benefit, and others, more distracting th...

Russia calls up 147,000 conscripts
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Apr 2023

On March 30 Putin signed the decree conscripting the 18-27 year olds for one year. Last year only 125,000 were called up at this time. The increase is said to be because the Defense Ministry has widened the parameters of those eligible. Men who would have been excluded for reasons of mental or ph...

Belarus calls for a truce in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Apr 2023

On March 31 the President Lukasheno called on the warring parties to call a truce without any preconditions. He warned of the risk of escalation. Lukashenko said that the issues ought to be agreed through talks. He said that Western arms shipments were raising the chance of a nuclear war. As Bela...

GULF WEEKLY: Aramco finalizes China investments, Abu Dhabi crown prince appointed, Fitch gives Qatar a positive outlook, Oman prepays $1.5bn loan
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 31 Mar 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil has partly rebounded after Iraq temporarily halted 450k b/d in pipeline exports via Turkey. * UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia all ranked in the top 25 in AT Kearney’s FDI confidence index. * Unemployment amongst Saudi nat...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 31 Mar 2023

The ruble continued to depreciate in recent weeks as investors weighed the effects of the current turbulence in the US and European banking sector and the likelihood of an economic recession. If this assumption is correct, global energy prices may be under pressure. It may add problems to the Rus...

Essential CIS Politics: April 2023
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 31 Mar 2023 · 1 response

* The ICC issued an arrest warrant for Putin. * Russia places tactical nukes in Belarus, having downed a US drone. * Russia’s arms sales are down sharply but it is selling jets to Iran. * The President of Belarus visited Iran. * The President of China visited Moscow. * Ukra...

Haddad presented the details of the new fiscal framework, Justice Lewandowski’s mandate nears its end, and the text of the fiscal framework may be submitted to Congress next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Mar 2023

The details of the new fiscal framework were announced. The text itself, however, should be presented next week. Some say it may actually be presented the following week due to the holiday on April 7, which should reduce the quorum in Brasilia. The mandate of Justice of the Supreme Federal Court ...

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