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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jul 11 -
Brazil Economics databank Jun 16
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Central America databank Jun 27
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Chile databank May 27
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Jul 7
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Dominican Republic databank Jun 18
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Ecuador databank Jun 20
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Gulf Countries databank Jul 11
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Hungary databank Jun 23
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Jul 1
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Jun 27
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Philippines databank Jul 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank Jul 11
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South Africa databank Jul 11
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank Jul 7
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: POLITICAL PASSIONS IN THE...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
The surprising end of the Party Conference
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 25 Oct 2022 · 1 response
China’s Party Conference ended with a bang in two ways: the clear selection of Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) members in Xi Jinping’s camp, and the unprecedented removal of former Party head Hu Jintao from the Party Conference. In this report I discuss the significance of these two acts. F...
Bolsonaro filed a lawsuit at the TSE claiming he had fewer ads than Lula, the TCU ordered the Caixa to speak on the payroll-linked loans it granted as part of the Auxílio Brasil program, and Henrique Meirelles and Persio Arida support Lula
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Oct 2022
The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) maintained the suspension of Jair Bolsonaro's ads on radio and TV and transferred them to former President Lula as a right to reply to Bolsonaro's accusations. Upon receiving Bolsonaro’s lawsuit, the president of the TSE, Alexandre de Moraes, gave the campaign 2...
Politics: The drive toward increasing militarization and the risks posed to democracy
MEXICO · Report · 25 Oct 2022
The national political environment has deteriorated considerably since the beginning of September, when Congress approved unconstitutional bills designed to formally shift control over the National Guard to the Ministry of Defense. The military is increasingly in command of activities traditional...
Economics: Mixed data in October — aggregate demand components show significant growth but inflation remains high
MEXICO · Report · 24 Oct 2022
Economic news in October delivered some strong indicators, starting with aggregate supply and demand data for the second quarter of 2022 showing growth in private consumption and investment that surpassed expectations. Private expenditure is now running near its peak from the fourth quarter of 20...
Monetary Policy, Public Debt and World Growth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Oct 2022
In 2023, global growth will decelerate substantially, with many countries suffering recessions, especially in Europe. That outcome will be a consequence of the inevitable course corrections in the expansionary policies – monetary and fiscal – used in reaction to the pandemic. In the first part of...
Variables that may impact the election and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Oct 2022
This is the last week of campaigning. The campaigns end on Friday, October 28. On the same day, the final debate between the candidates for the Presidency of the Republic will be held on TV Globo. Jair Bolsonaro and Lula have both confirmed their participation. The election will take place on Oct...
A good couple of months
ECUADOR · Report · 24 Oct 2022
Ecuador has had good news both domestically and from abroad in the last two months. On October 14, the government and CONAIE ended successfully—albeit with differing levels of satisfaction—the negotiation tables that were established after the violent riots of last June. With the mediation of the...
Former Federal Deputy Roberto Jefferson shot at federal police officers yesterday, the runoff round of the elections will be held on Sunday, October 30, and 14 polls on the elections will be published by then
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Oct 2022
Roberto Jefferson eventually turned himself in and was arrested. Moraes's order to arrest Jefferson came shortly after Jefferson verbally attacked STF Minister Carmen Lucia. The episode had huge repercussions in the press and could spill over into President Jair Bolsonaro’s campaign. Next Sunday,...
Housing dynamics are likely to support price moderation
ISRAEL · Report · 24 Oct 2022
1. Housing dynamics support lower housing purchase prices in 2023. 2. We expect housing rental prices to moderate as well, supportive of lower inflation. 3. Consumer confidence has declined, and private consumption appears to be decelerating, supportive of weaker demand-push inflation.
Line in the sand for the peso (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 24 Oct 2022
Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno wisely walked back today his comments about government’s plan to defend the peso (see In Brief with same title released 22 October). Based on the Bloomberg report we saw, the key message is that the BSP is independent and its policy decisions are made by the seve...
Final countdown is starting
TURKEY · Report · 23 Oct 2022
Putin’s out-of-the-blue proposal to turn Turkey into a NG hub for Russian gas is impractical, but it immediately raised eyebrows in the West, with the Biden administration openly putting the sanction threat on the table. Painful sanctions are not imminent, but possible. After the draconian cen...
Housing dynamics are likely to support price moderation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Oct 2022
Housing dynamics support lower prices in 2023 New home sales declined by 4.6% m/m and by 47% y/y in August. This trend is expected to continue as mortgage rates have move higher. Weaker demand is expected as housing supply accelerates in 2023. Residential investments are extremely elevated as hou...
Ukraine losing electricity due to Russian missile attacks
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Oct 2022
On October 22 Russian missiles hit energy infrastructure in west Ukraine. Several regions experienced power cuts. Other regions had electricity restrictions. Much of the country has to reduce use by 20% including Kyiv. Ukraine is hastening to restore electricity. Water supplies have also been dis...
US and Russian defense chiefs speak by phone
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Oct 2022
On October 21 Lloyd Austin and Sergei Shoigu spoke about the Ukraine War. Russia confirmed this on the government Telegram channel. Washington DC and Moscow have had the hotline since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. The US suggested keeping this hotline active in the Ukraine War in case somethi...
Line in the sand for the peso
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Oct 2022
We are not alone in scratching our heads over why Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno, The Banker’s “Global Central Banker of the Year 2022,” said what he said. Briefly, Bloomberg[1] reported Secretary Diokno saying: (a) government is trying to prevent the peso from breaching P60/$; (b) it is prepa...