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Bolsonaro expected to attend the debate on Saturday but not Lula, today Lula should meet with the U.S. charge d’affaires, and tomorrow the government publishes the budget and financial programming decree
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Sep 2022

The debate held by CNN, Veja, SBT, O Estado de S. Paulo, NovaBrasil FM and Earth will take place on Saturday. Lula said he intends to go to the TV Globo debate, scheduled for September 29. The exchange of criticisms between Lula and Bolsonaro is increasing in the final phase of the campaign. Toda...

Putin calls for "partial mobilization" – an extra challenge to deal with
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Sep 2022

Well, we are moving to the "next level" of the war. Until Sept 21st, 2022, the Russian population was observing the invasion from the outside of the field, just cheering their team. Sanctions created some minor inconveniences but it’s nothing compared to the hardships Ukrainians had to pass throu...

Putin announces partial mobilization
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Sep 2022

On September 21 the president said that 300,000 men will be called up. He said that NATO countries had used nuclear blackmail against Russia. Putin reminded the world that Russia possesses nuclear weapons, too. He warned that if Russia's territorial integrity was threatened then Russia would resp...

Russian macro: Economic performance in 2022 exceeds gloomy expectations, future trends remain uncertain
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 20 Sep 2022

On September 16, the Russian Central Bank decided to cut its key rate by 50 bps and brought it down to 7.5%. The regulator mentioned that Russia’s economic performance in 2022 looks better, so far, than had been expected earlier and announced that it will publish an updated macroeconomic forecast...

Hurricane Fiona strongly impacts the eastern and northeastern provinces of the country
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 20 Sep 2022

Hurricane Fiona made landfall in the Dominican Republic early Monday with winds of 150 kilometers per hour. It had a strong impact on east and northeast regions, mainly affecting the provinces of La Altagracia, El Seibo, Hato Mayor, Samaná, Duarte and María Trinidad Sánchez. So far there has been...

Lula met with former presidential candidates yesterday, Bolsonaro will deliver the opening speech at the UN General Assembly, and Pacheco and Guedes met yesterday to discuss the national nursing salary floor
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Sep 2022

Henrique Meirelles's presence at Lula’s meeting has fueled speculation in the market that he could become the Minister of Economy if Lula is elected. As of now, the goal of the meeting was to show that Lula is capable of holding a conversation with everyone. President Jair Bolsonaro will deliver ...

The next China crisis? Local Government Financing Vehicles
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Sep 2022

The Chinese government is transferring a significant portion of the risks of the property sector from private developers to local government companies. These LGFVs (Local Government Financing Vehicles) are required by local governments to acquire land — replacing property developers — to support ...

Castillo fights back; wider fiscal and current account deficits; and weaker currency expected in 2023
PERU · Report · 20 Sep 2022 · 1 response

In this forecast report, we discuss President Pedro Castillo’s prospects for political survival. We then move on to our economic forecast, and review our predictions for growth, government finances and the balance of payments. We also discuss the recovery plan launched by Finance Minister Kurt Bu...

Politics: Public grows increasingly critical of policy even as approval of AMLO remains mostly intact
MEXICO · Report · 20 Sep 2022

People have grown increasingly critical of government policy and more apprehensive regarding their economic prospects, according to our most recent quarterly survey of registered voters. Optimism sank in every category when voters were asked how they expect their family’s incomes, job status, pur...

Russia denies committing a massacre at Izyum
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Sep 2022

On September 19 Putin's personal spokesman said that the claim that Russian Forces massacred civilians at Izyum is a ''lie''. 450 bodies have been exhumed, and Ukraine says that many of them had been tortured and then shot. The Kremlin said this is ''Nazi propaganda''. In March Ukraine regained t...

Main opposition plans to field joint lists in 87 districts
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Sep 2022 · 1 response

In as much as the title sounds tantalizingly obscure, this is potentially a ground-breaking plan, which will help the Table of Six (CHP, IYIP, SP, DP, DEVA, Gelecek) to gain more seats per vote. However, technically speaking it is difficult to implement. While I’m at it, I want to reiterate my vi...

Update to our September Report
ECUADOR · In Brief · 19 Sep 2022 · 2 responses

This afternoon after we released our monthly report for September, President Lasso and Minister of Finance Pablo Arosemena announced the agreement reached with China for a restructuring of the Ecuadorian debt with this country that will bring benefits in debt reduction and cash flow service. The ...

Economics: 2023 revenue and spending plans don’t add up, but may afford officials some room
MEXICO · Report · 19 Sep 2022

In our follow up to last week’s initial review of the López Obrador administration’s 2023 budget package in which we focused on its domestic and international macroeconomic assumptions, this week we delve deeper into its revenue and spending bills. These confirm our concerns that the 2023 budget ...

A referendum at last – but will it be groundbreaking?
ECUADOR · Report · 19 Sep 2022

After a year of hesitation, President Guillermo Lasso has decided to go for a referendum to amend the Constitution approved in 2008 regarding three general aspects: national security, democracy and the political structure, and the environment. The questions for a referendum require the approval o...

Polls in Minas Gerais put the presidential candidates on high alert and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Sep 2022

President Jair Bolsonaro attends the opening of the UN Assembly in New York. On September 24, a debate is scheduled between the presidential candidates. In the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco discusses the nursing salary floor with leaders. In the economy, the highlight is the meeting of the Central Bank...

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