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Consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 May 2022

Costa Rica´s growth will slow in 2022, but won´t stop over the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Three transmission channels will negatively impact the economy: less favorable external trade, higher international prices and tighter financial conditions. These factors are pushing growth...

The labor market continues to tighten
ISRAEL · Report · 31 May 2022

1. The labor market continues to tighten as job vacancies hit record levels, supportive of wage pressure. 2. Private consumption growth appears to have moderated recently following the rapid growth when Covid restrictions were cancelled. 3. The Bank of Israel raised rates by 0.4% las...

EU bans most Russian oil
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 May 2022

On May 30 the European Union banned Russian oil except for when it is sold to Hungary. Hungary buys 65% of its oil from Russia. The aim is that Hungary will wean itself off Russian oil over several years. The move banks the import of two-thirds of Russian oil imports to the EU immediately. Poland...

Good news: accord reached on the oil embargo
HUNGARY · In Brief · 31 May 2022

Early this morning, an accord has been reported to have been reached by the EU Council on the oil embargo against Russia. Hungary, Czechia and Slovakia will be allowed to temporarily continue to buy Russian oil through the southern flank of the Drushba (= Friendship !) pipeline. No deadline has b...

EU summit, rate-setting meeting, weak forint
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 May 2022

The situation is quite complicated once again. This afternoon, the EU Council's extraordinary summit meeting started. A key issue for the meeting is supposed to be the oil embargo against Russia. The forint was quite weak again, with EURHUF 395-396, in late trade today, as PM Orbán said earlier t...

Zelensky visits eastern front and admits situation is very difficult
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 May 2022

On May 29 the Ukrainian President went to Ukraine's second city Kharkiv. It is only 40 km from Russia. However, the city is no longer under ground attack. Zelensky dimissed Kharkiv's security chief. The president said the man had not run the defense of the city well in February 2022. On May 29 th...

Neither sanctions relief nor negotiations, for now
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 30 May 2022

The quid pro quo that seemed to be on track a few weeks ago to reactivate negotiations appears to be on hold. License 8j extending until December 1, 2022 the operating restrictions limiting Chevron, Halliburton, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes and Weatherford International in Venezuela was a non-event...

France and Germany keen to end Ukraine War
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 May 2022

On May 28 the President of France and the Chancellor of Germany had a phone call with Putin. They forwarded proposals to end the war. France and Germany pleaded with Russia to guarantee safe passage to ships transporting food from the Ukrainian Port of Odessa. Ukraine provides at least 10% of the...

GULF WEEKLY: Gulf officials swarm Davos, Saudi prioritizes rebuilding reserves, Oman-Iran gasfield discussed
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 May 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Four Saudi ministers, Qatar’s emir and other Gulf officials spoke at Davos. * Saudi Arabia is using the surplus to rebuild reserves, before funding PIF or cutting the VAT rate. * PIF bought a $1.5bn stake in Prince Alwaleed...

Petro’s only chance might be May 29th
COLOMBIA · Report · 27 May 2022

Here we present the proposals of the three leading presidential candidates: Gustavo Petro, Federico Gutiérrez and Rodolfo Hernández, in comparative tables. In the general view of the economy, Gutiérrez seems market and business friendly, whereas Petro would pursue interventionist policies, and He...

​Special Brief: Election Timing and Exchange Rate Management
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 May 2022

Introduction We shall not publish a Weekly Tracker this Sunday, on account of Murat Ucer being out of town on business. Instead, I wanted to share my preliminary conclusions on two topics which topped the FAQ list in our recent contacts with our audience. These are election timing and the fate of...

Senators discuss the ICMS issue, Congress will analyze presidential vetoes next week, and federal police officers will march for a salary raise
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 May 2022

Some senators, for example, Senator Eduardo Braga, believe a portion of the dividends that Petrobras pays to the federal government should be used to create a subsidy for truck drivers and taxi drivers. President Jair Bolsonaro criticized a measure included in PLP 18 that mandates the federal gov...

The Two Speeds
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 May 2022

Venezuela’s political conflict is playing out in two different scenarios at two different speeds. Onstage, both the Maduro government and the opposition archipelago are preparing for a long electoral campaign ahead of the 2024 presidential elections. Behind the scenes, pressure is accelerating to...

Kazakhstan: Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 27 May 2022

May 13 Ministry of Agriculture: Kazakhstan introduces a ban on the export of sugar for six months May 16 Bureau of National Statistics: Kazakhstan’s foreign trade balance reached $9.6 bln in 1Q22 (+$6.3 bln y-o-y) Bureau of National Statistics: Agricultural production reached KZT974.3 bln in Jan-...

Kyrgyzstan cancels USD 3.2 billion fine against Canadian company
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 May 2022

On May 24 a court made the ruling. Centerra Gold was the company that had been fined for breaking environmental law. The company ran Kumtor Gold Mine. The scale of the fine was staggering in a poor country of 5 million people. USD 3 billion would be a large chunk of the country's GDP. Kyrgyzstan ...

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