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​Erdogan wants his war in Syria
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 May 2022

Monday’s Cabinet meeting wasclosely watched by market participants, with the expectation that Erdogan would officially announce the details of inflation-linked TL bonds. He didn’t, instead he rolled out new populist measures, which smacked of an intention togo to polls early. He also had a surpri...

Russia bans American and British VIPs
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 May 2022

On May 23 Russia banned over 900 Americans from entering the country. This list includes actors and politicians. On May 24 it banned 154 members of the House of Lords. This is a reprisal for the UK banning members of the Russian Federal Council from entering the United Kingdom. Russian-born Lord ...

When the future feels hopeless
CHILE · Report · 24 May 2022

The March Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) surprised both the market and the Central Bank on the upside. Nevertheless, the Bank recently revised the figures downward. The outlook for consumption is far from positive: the IMACEC showed a fifth consecutive fall in commerce. But a more g...

The government announced a change in command at Petrobras, João Doria withdraws from the presidential race, and the House may vote on the bill on fuel, electricity, communications and public transportation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 May 2022

José Mauro Ferreira Coelho will be replaced by Caio Mário Paes de Andrade, assistant to Minister Paulo Guedes at the Ministry of Economy, where he held the position of Secretary of Debureaucratization. João Doria's withdrawal from the presidential race does not settle the issue in the third-way a...

Politics: The game plan behind the current political reform proposals and what comes next
MEXICO · Report · 24 May 2022

After President López Obrador presented his constitutional reform proposals in election-related matters, ostensibly to “put an end to fraud” and assure that “elections are clean and free,” the opposition PRI and PAN parties insisted emphatically that the proposed measures would not pass as they c...

The MNB is to slow down the pace of base rate hikes from now on
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 May 2022

Exactly one-week ahead of the monthly rate-setting meeting, MNB vice governor Virág spoke in an interview today. He said the MNB will be unable to fully counteract the domestic impact of global inflationary pressures. He repeated governor Matolcsy's message, sent out a week ago, according to whic...

Russia on the brink of conquering Luhansk District
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 May 2022

On May 24 Russia intensified its attack around Luhansk. Taking the district is one of Russia's key war aims. The war has now been going on for three full months. Severodonetsk is the vortex of the war. The Ukrainian town is surrounded on three sides. There is only one bridge that the Ukrainians c...

Stronger Expansion of GDP in Brazil and External Risks
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 May 2022

Our estimate is that Brazil’s GDP in the first quarter grew by almost 1.3% (1.5% is the estimate of the GDP Monitor of FGV). With this, the chances are greater that the economy will expand by more than 1% in 2022. The objective of this Report is to analyze the external risks facing Brazil in the ...

Economics: Pemex and CFE back in the black on strong prices and forex effect but problems loom
MEXICO · Report · 23 May 2022

This month both the CFE and Pemex presented their results for the first quarter, which at first glance may appear strong. Just three months after a negative 4Q21 marked a 13th consecutive year of losses at the NOC, Pemex posted a 122.5 billion peso net profit, which is its best bottom line for a...

Leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan meet
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 May 2022

The summit took place on May 22 in Brussels and was mediated by the European Union.The meeting of the joint commission on border demarcation will soon take place.The President of the European Council chaired the meeting. He also had separate meetings with the Azerbaijani president and Armenian pr...

Bolsonaro vs. Moraes and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 May 2022

The House may vote on the bill that reduces the ICMS tax on electricity and fuel. The third-way parties (PSDB, MDB and Cidadania) discuss Senator Simone Tebet’s candidacy for the Planalto Palace. Guedes and Queiroga participate in the Davos Economic Forum. Four presidential polls will be publishe...

Making sense of GCC economic data and navigating the GCC Databank
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 May 2022

This report provides an overview of the economic data that is available for the Gulf states, some technical discussion of the quirks in regional data (with examples) and an introduction to navigating our GCC Databank (follow the sidebar link to download the latest version). Although this is quite...

Rate hike of 0.4% today, above market expectations
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 May 2022

Rate hike of 0.4% today, above market expectations The Bank of Israel raised policy rates today by 0.4% to 0.75%, above market expectations for a 0.25% hike. We were initially leaning towards a 40% hike, but following the somewhat lower-than-expected GDP print of -1.6% for Q122, we gave this opti...

The House to discuss the bill to impose a 17% ceiling on the ICMS tax, a special committee will be installed to analyze tax reform, and leadership of third-way parties to discuss appointing Sen. Simone Tebet as their presidential candidate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 May 2022

The bill in the House establishes a 17% ceiling for the ICMS tax on energy, telecommunications and transportation. The urgent status of the bill was approved last week. The National Committee of State Secretaries of Finance (Comsefaz) estimates that, if approved, the PLP could generate an impact ...

We expect a 0.25% rate hike today
ISRAEL · Report · 23 May 2022

1. We expect a 0.25% rate hike today on the back of accelerating inflation and fairly robust growth. 2. The GDP contraction in Q122 was a technical correction following growth of 15.6% in Q421. 3. The shekel has appreciated recently, despite further market volatility.

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