GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

September’s CPI comes in above expectations Inflation in September increased by 0.2% m/m (expectations were for 0.1% while some local forecasters were expecting zero) and 4.6% y/y (similar to last month). Core inflation increased by 4.7% y/y in the past three months. Housing rental prices (OER) i...

GULF WEEKLY: GCC votes against annexation, oil demand revised down, Iraq picks president

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Oct 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC, IEA and EIA all revised down 2023 demand growth, and oil softened from last week’s surge. * Our analysis of the updated OPEC supply projections implies relatively flat quotas in 2023. * The US had offered to set a $...

Bolsonaro will be in Minas Gerais and Rio, Lula will be in Pernambuco, and the first presidential debate will be held on Sunday

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Oct 2022

Bolsonaro will participate in a parade in Duque de Caxias (RJ) in the morning. In the afternoon, he will meet with the mayors of the state of Minas and the re-elected governor of Minas, Romeu Zema (Novo), in Belo Horizonte. Lula (PT) is still in the Northeast. He will be in Pernambuco today, wher...

NATO providing air defense to Ukraine

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Oct 2022

On October 13 it was reported that US and its allies are rapidly giving air defense systems to Ukraine. The recent spate of Russian missile attacks has prompted this. The attacks killed 20 Ukrainian civilians and damaged infrastructure. Ukraine claimed to have shot down almost half of the Russian...

The MNB took action to stabilise the forint this morning

HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Oct 2022

The Monetary Council announced early this morning a series of actions, with a view to stabilising the forint after a 6% slide against the euro since the Council's previous communications on September 27. The following measures were announced, with immediate effect: - The Bank's O/N credit rate wa...

Xi Jinping’s tough choices in the chip wars

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Oct 2022

I was very interested to read opposing analyses of the impact of the new U.S. policy toward the export of semiconductor and artificial intelligence technology to China — both from former Department of Defense analysts. One was from Gregory Allen, a CSIS analyst, and former Director of Strategy an...

Russian Governor of Kherson asks for civilians to be evacuated

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Oct 2022

On October 13 the Moscow-appointed official said he needs help moving civilians out as the Ukrainian Army is advancing. He said this on his Telegram channel, which suggests rising desperation. Vladimir Saldo complained about Ukrainian missile strikes. The Russian Army is fighting in Kherson. Ther...

Over the holiday Lula went to the Southeast and Northeast while Bolsonaro stayed in the Southeast, the latest poll shows signs of a stable electoral scenario, and the STJ will decide whether to suspend Alagoas Governor Paulo Dantas

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Oct 2022

Former President Lula was in Rio de Janeiro alongside Eduardo Paes. Then, he went to Salvador, Bahia. The PT's candidate Jerônimo Rodrigues is in the runoff round against ACM Neto (União Brasil) in the gubernatorial election in Bahia. Jair Bolsonaro went to Minas Gerais, where he participated in ...

Stabilization is getting tougher

VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Oct 2022

For the second time this year, at 12 percent, the monthly inflation rate hit double digits. The first time was in August, the month of exchange-rate turbulence that took inflation to 16 percent. Even though the dollar appreciated against the bolivar by a mere 1.8 percent in September compared wit...

Interest rate on the MNB's 2-month deposit instrument rose moderately at today's tender

HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Oct 2022

The MNB held its second weekly tender for its new 2-month deposit instrument today. The actual tenor of the depos will be shorter than two months, as the new placements will mature on December 1, the same way as the similar deposits made by banks a week ago. Banks handed in bids for HUF522bn, of ...

Economics: 2Q aggregate demand results are mixed as risks of a 2023 slump increase

MEXICO · Report · 11 Oct 2022

Aggregate supply and demand figures for the second quarter of 2022 showed growth in private consumption and investment that not only exceeded expectations, but also proved sufficient to possibly lead to slightly stronger average GDP growth for 2022 than we projected last month. But it is worth no...

The current account narrows in 3Q22 but is still exceptionally strong

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Oct 2022

According to the preliminary estimates published by the CBR, Russia's current account reached $198.4bn in 9M22 as it narrowed in 3Q22 to $51.9 bn (versus $61.8bn in 1Q22 and 76.7bn in 2Q22). The current account remains exceptionally strong and is likely to be so in 4Q22 as well. Exports of goods ...

Kazakhstan's banking sector: a forced transformation

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 11 Oct 2022

Over the course of 2022, the banking system of Kazakhstan has gone through a period of transformation initiated by sanctions against Russian banks by Western countries. As a result, major Russian players have left the Kazakh market, having sold their assets to locals. This may enable the latter t...

Capital Outflows, Global Risk and Exchange Rate

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Oct 2022

The Central Bank has finally updated the statistics on currency flows and balance of payments, allowing two important findings. First, there is more than US$ 60 billion in export revenues left abroad, due to exporters’ preferring to invest money abroad rather than repatriate it. Second, over the ...

Proposed 2023 budget maintains status quo; growth slowdown looms

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 11 Oct 2022

The 2023 proposed budget incorporates a lower than expected deficit for 2022, but higher than in 2021. With an oil price forecast at $89/b for 2023, the government wants to play it safe, and not risk having to eliminate subsidies and adjust domestic energy prices. Subsidies for electricity and fu...