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Desperately bloody fights for Luhansk region
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 May 2022

Over the last two weeks we observed the most desperate fights in Luhansk region (North part of Donbas). Russian leadership apparently disappointed with 'no result' by May 9th amid failed ‘big battle for Donbas’ decided to get at least something in this war. They defined, as we already see, occupa...

We expect a 0.25% rate hike today
ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 May 2022

Economic conditions support a 0.25% hike Inflation has accelerated to 4.0% y/y with core at 3.4%, above target. Inflation is more broad-based, including both goods and services. Economic indicators point to fairly robust growth and near-full unemployment. The negative GDP print is a correction fo...

More of the same
TURKEY · Report · 22 May 2022 · 2 responses

We’ve titled last week’s Sunday Weekly “Seething Politics, Shaky Currency”. Today’s title refers to that, because we have more of the same indeed: The political scene remains very tense, while Ankara seems to be having a hard time containing TL’s weakness, which, incidentally, prompted our Cosmic...

Former German Chancellor resigns from board of Rosneft
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 May 2022

On May 20 Gerhard Schroeder resigned from the board of the Russian state oil major. He had been under severe pressure from Germany to do so. On May 18 the EU Parliament threatened sanctions against him if he did not resign. He was said to have a close relationship with Putin. Schroeder has state-...

Talk about a neutral sea corridor for Ukrainian food exports
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 May 2022

Ukraine is a major exporter of grain, wheat, fertilizer and cooking oil. The UN warned that 400 million people mostly in Africa face malnutrition because Ukrainian food exports have almost halted. Ukraine ships out most of its food through the Black Sea. There is not the road and rail capacity to...

Putin wants to be rid of foreign tech as Russia's war slows.
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 May 2022

On May 20 Putin said that Russia needs technological sovereignty. Russian missiles usually use Western electronics. Civilian vehicles often rely on Western components. The lack of Western components is going to prove a significant headache for Russian military and civilian manufacturing. Russia c...

GULF WEEKLY: Qatar and US delegations visit UAE, Oman considers gas pipeline IPO, Hezbollah loses majority
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 May 2022

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent touched $115 as Russian oil output fell -by 9% in April but is displacing Iranian exports to China. * The EU launched a strategic plan for engaging with the GCC. * Saudi Arabia achieved a 6% of GDP fiscal surplus in ...

The quality of Chinese growth is deteriorating
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 May 2022

Special points to highlight in this issue: * This week’s data release by the National Bureau of Statistics was expected to be bad, but in fact was worse than expected. For me the most worrying number is the 8.2 percentage-point gap between April’s year-on-year decline in retail sales and the ...

Webinar Replay: Is India on track for a robust recovery?
INDIA · Report · 20 May 2022

Get insight into India's macro outlook for 2022 and the potential for an economic recovery. Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring economist Dr. Ajay Shah discussing India's recovery and the state of the Indian economy.

Guedes said that he would likely continue in the government if Bolsonaro is re-elected, the energy and fuel tariffs remain an issue, and the government publishes the income and expenditure report today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 May 2022

This was the first time Paulo Guedes admitted to the possibility of staying in the government. President Jair Bolsonaro had already stated that the relationship between the two is still very good and that, if he would like, Guedes would continue in a possible second term. The president of the Hou...

Pandemic statistics update - May 20, 2022
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 May 2022

Xi Jinping’s lockdown policies are facing increasing opposition. Videos have been posted online about protests at Peking University, where the children of the elite attend university. The open confrontation, in both Beijing and Shanghai, is surprising but the harsh measures are clearly causing si...

A 50-basis point increase in the repo rate by the South African Reserve Bank
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 19 May 2022

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has once again announced that it is hiking the benchmark interest rate, by 50 basis points – its largest since the beginning of 2016. This was following this week’s conclusion of its Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) third meeting of the year. The repo rate t...

The TCU approved the privatization of Eletrobras, the third-way alliance decided to appoint Senator Simone Tebet as its presidential candidate, and President Bolsonaro calls for the impeachment of Minister Alexandre de Moraes
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 May 2022

The government is racing against time to privatize Eletrobras before the election. The goal is for it to take place in June. The matter may still be taken to court — and the opposition certainly will do this. The leaderships of the third way parties will meet separately on Tuesday, May 24, to dec...

Monetary Board increases policy rates by 25bp
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 19 May 2022

Following rising domestic inflation and inflation expectations, firmer recovery in domestic demand and a more hawkish US Fed stance, the policy making body of the BSP decided today to raise its set of policy rates by 25bp. This will bring the overnight reverse repurchase rate (RRP), which has bee...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 May 2022

So far, the EU has failed to introduce the sixth package of sanctions, which was supposed to include some kind or embargo on Russian oil and oil-refined products. At the same time, the Western countries continue to discuss some other restrictions on energy imports from Russia (such as imposing sp...

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