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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The current account surplus widens in 2Q22
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 26 Sep 2022 · 1 response

The National Bank of Kazakhstan reported that the country’s current account surplus widened in 2Q22 and reached $4.135 bn. In 1Q22, it was at $2.512 bn. Hence this surplus reached $6.647 bn in 1H22. In 2021 the current account was in deficit each quarter, and its annual deficit was at $5.737bn. N...

Russian anti-draft protestors drafted
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Sep 2022

Since the mobilization of 300,000 reservists was announced on September 23 there have been protests in several Russian cities. The police have arrested protestors, and in the cases of young men, handed them draft notices. The police confiscate the passport of the detainee and then use the informa...

All about the ToS and reserves
TURKEY · Report · 25 Sep 2022 · 5 responses

CHP leader Kilicdaroglu slammed his fist on the table loudly, roaring that the buck stops there. He was reacting to endless sniping among members of the Table of Six (ToS) and growing doubts among pro-opposition intellectuals and media outlets about the capacity of the ToS to nominate a unified c...

Uzbekistan blocks Russian payment system
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Sep 2022

On September 23 the Central Asian country stopped the Mir payment card. Over half the Russian population holds such a card. Mir is accepted by Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Vietnam. It is thought that Uzbekistan stopped Mir because of the fear of secondary sanctions. Uzbekistan has...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Sep 2022

The decision to call referendums in Donbas and neighboring regions and the announcement of partial mobilization in Ukraine pushed the Russian financial market significantly lower. As a result, the yield for 10-year OFZ moved to double-digit territory, for the first time since the end of May, whil...

A race for gas in Europe
HUNGARY · Report · 23 Sep 2022

Europe’s short-term economic success currently hinges on to what extent and at what price the western side of the continent will be able to secure the amount of natural gas it needs for the upcoming winter. This is a fundamental political, growth and price stability issue at the same time, as gas...

Kazakhstan macro: navigating between Scylla and Charybdis
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 23 Sep 2022

Even as Russia and a few other countries are heading toward a recession, Kazakhstan is doing relatively well this year – despite high inflation and some disruptions in the oil-and-gas sector caused by maintenance work in two main oil fields and problems with the CPC. The economic outlook looks de...

Three polls will be published today, Lula is unlikely to attend the debate tomorrow, and the STF begins judgment on whether the Difal can be collected this year
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Sep 2022

The Datafolha poll published yesterday shows an increase in Lula's advantage over Bolsonaro. Lula rose from 45% to 47% and now has a 14-point advantage over Bolsonaro, according to the institute. The President remained stable at 33%. Ciro Gomes has 7%, and Simone Tebet, 5%. Lula is unlikely to at...

GULF WEEKLY: Rates hiked, MBS mediates Russia prisoner release, UAE and Oman GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Sep 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf states hiked interest rates by 75bp, bar Kuwait, which only raised by 25bp. * Oil slipped to the lowest since January despite a record shortfall in OPEC+ production. * There was no progress towards an Iran nuclear de...

Another 75-basis point repo rate increase by the South African Reserve Bank despite slowing inflation
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Sep 2022

Staying its course of policy normalization, the South African Reserve Bank hiked the benchmark interest rate by another 75 basis points during the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) September meeting. With the repo rate climbing to 6.25% from 5.5%, the prime lending rate also increases, to 9.75% f...

Another 100 bps cut from the CBRT
TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Sep 2022

The CBRT/MPC cut the policy rate (one-week repo) by another 100 bps to 12% (simple) today. While this wasn’t the consensus expectation, we are not terribly surprised, as we had given more than even odds to such a move (see last Sunday’s Tracker). The MPC statement is almost identical to the previ...

A third 50bps
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Sep 2022

Following the US Fed’s third outsized rate increase of 75bp yesterday, the Monetary Board in its regular meeting today responded with its third 50bp increase for its set of policy rates. Today’s move brings the key overnight RRP rate to 4.25% compared with the fed funds target rate of 3% to 3.25%...

The income tax rate for those abroad with income from investments in Brazil has been zeroed, Bolsonaro called for his supporters to hold motorcycle parades on the eve of the election, and Lula is expected to attend the debate on Saturday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Sep 2022

Today, provisional measures were published in the Federal Official Gazette reducing the income tax rates to zero for those residing or domiciled abroad that have income from investments in Brazil. The goal is to equalize the tax rates in order to expand the access of Brazilian companies to foreig...

How will weaker export growth affect the Chinese economy?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 22 Sep 2022

Special points to highlight in this issue: * Cargo rates for the rest of the year seem to be coming down sharply ahead of the Christmas holiday, suggesting that export growth may be declining rapidly because of weaker expected demand from the US and Europe. I have no way of knowing whether or ...

Pro-Russian rebels release 10 foreigners
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Sep 2022

On September 21 the pro-Moscow Forces unexpectedly freed Britons, Croats, Americans, a Moroccan and a Swede. The ten men had been accused by the pro-Russian Donetsk People's Republic administration in East Ukraine of being mercenaries. Some of them had been sentenced to death. The men were freed ...

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