CBR cuts the key rate by 150 bps, more cuts expected

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Jun 2022

The CBR cut the key rate by 150 bps to 9.5% amid rapid disinflation and an abnormally strong ruble. The latter factor also encouraged the government to cancel obligatory FX sales by exporters introduced after Russia announced its “special military operation” in Ukraine. The regulator now expects ...

Pandemic statistics update - June 10, 2022

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Jun 2022

China film box office revenue is showing quite steady gains beginning in June. This confirms news reports that suggest the lockdowns are easing, either due to local pressure or because there has been containment of Covid in places such as Shanghai. Both Shanghai and Beijing have shown sharp chang...

Kazakhstan: Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 10 Jun 2022

May 31 Government of Italy Kazakhstan exported 455.2 thousand tons of oil to Italy in March versus 268.4 thousand tons in February. Jun 1 North Caspian Operating Company Oil production at the Kashagan field has been suspended since June 1 due to scheduled repairs for approximately 45 days. Kashag...

The fiscal deficit continued to normalise in May

HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Jun 2022

New central government cash data suggests the government is serious about its promise to fix the budget on rather short notice after the election. In May, the cash deficit was only 2.1% of GDP on annualised basis. As a result, the cumulative January-May deficit fell to 11.3% of GDP, from 13.7% in...

The current account and the trade surpluses narrow in May, albeit still remain wide

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Jun 2022

As in the aftermath of geopolitical tensions and sanctions, the CBR stopped publishing detailed information on foreign trade regularly. It now provides monthly only a few numbers related to Russia’s current account and foreign trade balances. The regulator reported that in 5M22, the estimated cur...

Inflation in Kazakhstan remains elevated, the base rate may be increased later this year

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 09 Jun 2022

As opposed to Russia, where inflation decelerated fast (in May, it fell to 0.12% m-o-m and for several weeks, the w-o-w inflation remained at around zero), inflation in Kazakhstan was at 1.7% m-o-m in May. It was only slightly lower than the m-o-m inflation in April (2.0%). By the end of May, the...

The House approved the bill preventing the ICMS from being levied on additional electricity fees, the rapporteur of the ICMS ceiling on essential services changed compensation mechanisms in the text, and Pres. Bolsonaro should meet with Pres. Biden today

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jun 2022

The ICMS proposal will be sent to the Senate. Estimates show that the measure could result in R$ 2.88 billion in annual savings for consumers if generation conditions in the coming years are similar to those observed since 2015. The rapporteur of the ICMS ceiling bill, Senator Fernando Bezerra, m...

Russia appoints officials in Donetsk

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Jun 2022

On June 9 bureaucrats took office in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR). DPR is recognized by Russia but not the rest of the world, which views it as part of Ukraine. Until now DPR has been run by people who are from it. There were hints in February 2022 that recognizing the DPR was only a step ...

Russian macro: shocks and pressure

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 08 Jun 2022

The initial shock associated with Russia’s “special military operation” has evolved into a kind of permanent pressure on the Russian economy due to the restrictive measures imposed by Western governments and the voluntary exodus of many foreign companies that operated in the country. Even though ...

Still too close to call

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 08 Jun 2022 · 1 response

Russia considering annexing Kherson

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jun 2022

On June 6 a Russian politician named Igor Kasyukevich said that the Kherson Region of Ukraine ought to be declared part of Russia. Kasyukevich said a referendum should be held first. Russia did this with the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. Crimea was officially part of Russia until the 1950s. Kremlin ...

Consumer lending rates remained high in April and are unlikely to have dropped much in May

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 Jun 2022

The CBR reported that the average weighted consumer lending rate didn’t change much in April, despite the fact that the regulator cut the key rate from 20% to 17% (effective from April 11). Monthly average lending rate for credits with maturity up to 1Y, were at 25.79%, while interest rates for l...

Congress continues to try to minimize the impact of inflation on consumers, two presidential polls were published today, and today is the last day for workers to reserve Eletrobras shares with funds from the FGTS

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Jun 2022

The House approved a bill that requires companies in the energy sector to send data regarding the composition of the prices of their products, such as the average cost of producing oil and natural gas, to the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP). Deputies also approved the...

Steady growth will support further aggressive tightening

ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Jun 2022

Business confidence going forward remains strong. The component of expectations for stronger activity in the next three months improved to 10.05 points in May from 8.04 last month (net balance). Both industry and services are reporting expectations for growth in orders, both for exports and domes...

Inflation maintained its rapidly ascending trend in May

HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jun 2022

CPI-inflation was reported at 1.7% mom, 10.7% yoy for May this morning. This came after 9.5% yoy in April, and generally the trend of recent months has been a rapidly ascending one: CPI-inflation and core inflation Note: % yoy changes; Sources: KSH, own estimates The forint slightly weakened on t...