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This will be a decisive week for the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC). Lula is expected to start announcing the names of his ministerial team. On December 2, the Working Group created by Minister Gilmar Mendes to discuss the constitutionality of the ICMS reduction concludes its ...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Nov 2022

Four weeks after the runoff election, in the midst of serious uncertainties, some hints have emerged of what can be expected of the new government. An important one is that the PT has changed very little with the passage of time. Lula continues to centralize decisions in his hands, which deters t...

“Yağdır, Mevlam, Yağdır”*

TURKEY · Report · 27 Nov 2022 · 2 responses

To our surprise, Saudi Arabia and Qatar chose to bankroll President Erdogan’s election campaign with generous financial donations. In return, Erdogan promised to meet Assad and shook hands with Sisi. However, neither U-turn signals substantial policy change. Financial aid from Gulf countries poss...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi+Qatar to aid Turkey, Abu Dhabi H1 GDP, Kuwait announces political amnesty

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Nov 2022 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil ministers denied that a quota increase was being considered in response to the Russia price cap. * Saudi Arabia and Qatar are finalizing up to $15bn in financing support for Turkey. * Saudi nationalism was stoked by a...

Recovery again constrained by COVID

CHINA · Report · 25 Nov 2022

Growth is weakly recovering, with pressure ahead largely due to COVID prevention measures and related lockdowns. Although rumors have suggested that the zero-COVID policy could be abandoned, there were also signs that China would commit to this policy in the short term, citing reasons in state me...

Soccer – our hope of last resort

ECUADOR · Report · 22 Nov 2022

The intentions of Correistas, Social Christians, and the rebels from Pachakutik to oust President Guillermo Lasso have not ended. They sent a recent new petition to the Electoral Council to revoke his mandate under the argument of a “failed state”, based on the recent cruel massacres that occurre...

It won't be easy for Lula and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Nov 2022

With Lula's return to Brazil after his trip to Egypt, he is expected to announce future members of his ministerial team. Party leaders are trying to reach an agreement on the Transition PEC, which may be put to a vote in the Senate by the end of the month. This week's Talking Points: ...

A Disastrous Proposal

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Nov 2022

With a public debt that is too big for a developing country and with a real interest rate higher than the economic growth rate, Brazil needs to generate primary surpluses sufficiently large to reduce the debt/GDP ratio to avoid losing control of inflation and hampering economic growth. However, e...

Politics: Massive protest against AMLO’s political reform, potentially upending politics

MEXICO · Report · 21 Nov 2022

The upstart National Civic Front (FCN) and five other civil society organizations that have all now banded together in the "Unidos" citizens' initiative staged protests nationwide on November 13 to defend the National Electoral Institute and oppose the electoral reform of President López Obrador....

Politics in times of high inflation

ARGENTINA · Report · 21 Nov 2022

In a context of rising inflation and low government confidence indices, at last Thursday's speech on the “Day of the Militancy” (the day when parties celebrate the commitment and support of their voters), CFK presented herself in a rock-star manner, in a crowded “Ciudad de La Plata” Stadium. She ...

Economics: As the monetary rate rises, bank credit continues to expand

MEXICO · Report · 21 Nov 2022 · 1 response

With the recent hikes in monetary policy interest rates in leading economies at a time of persistently high inflation, central bank authorities have signaled that we are facing a prolonged period of elevated interest rates. Such warnings from the Federal Reserve are of particular significance to ...

Murder, mystery, mayhem

TURKEY · Report · 20 Nov 2022 · 1 response

Turkish jets strafed Syrian Kurdish settlements in retaliation for the Beyoglu terror attack. We doubt this will escalate into a military campaign, though. There is a lot of commentary on Erdogan’s diplomatic efforts elevating his credibility and raising his voter approval at home. We are circums...

Negative global and domestic shocks slow the South African economy

SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 18 Nov 2022 · 2 responses

Households: Consumption expenditure by households has been one of the key drivers of the South African economy’s recovery from the Covid-19-induced recession. Although household consumption is expected to remain a key driver for growth, this is expected to be at a lesser extent than during the pe...

The Transition PEC was submitted yesterday, and the proposal will likely be changed before approval

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Nov 2022

Finally, the transition team presented the text of the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) to the National Congress. In fact, it is very unlikely that Congress will approve the measure in the terms proposed by the government. There is consensus on removing Bolsa Família from the sp...

Ukraine grain deal extended

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Nov 2022

On November 17 the United Nations and Ukraine said the deal whereby Ukrainian food is exported through the Black Sea has been given a 120 day extension. Turkey is vital in this because the ships carrying the food will pass through the Bosphorous Strait which is a Turkish waterway flowing through ...